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Well, here's reality folks: If you do the math, we don't have enough energy generation to support mass electrification of our transportation system. Not even
by robomartin 5y ago
Well, here's reality folks: If you do the math, we don't have enough energy generation to support mass electrification of our transportation system. Not even close.
I did the math on this a couple of years ago by writing a relatively simple simulation that took into account time zones, utilization and portions of the fleet fast and slow charging. The simulation gave a range between 910 GW and 1,400 GW.
This is the amount of additional power generation (above our current capacity) required to be able to support the full replacement of our ground transportation fleet (about 280 million vehicles).
If this were to be done through nuclear, that would mean building about a thousand 1 GW class nuclear power plants.
We can't even build one.
No, it can't be done with solar and wind.
As far as I have been able to determine, nuclear is the only solution. That is, if you want these electric vehicles to actually deliver on the idea of being good for the environment. We would have to manufacture somewhere in the order of 3 billion new solar panels and orders of magnitude more in batteries in order to even dream of doing this with solar. Let's not forget about all else that is required: wired, inverters, mounting structures, transportation, installation, etc. If you look at the entire process, it isn't at all clean. And, at a massive scale, it's even worse. This coming from someone who fully bought into it and installed a 13 kW system to get ready for electric cars, only to later understand that it likely needs to be twice as large, if not larger, to fully deliver on the dream.
Bottom line:
If we want a future where clean electric vehicles replace our gasoline burning fleet, we have to embrace nuclear power like never before. Not only that, we have to make whatever changes might be necessary to the way we do things in order to be able to build nuclear power plants faster than we ever have. If it takes 25 years to build a plant we will never get there. We need a thousand of them. And, yes, they need to be safe. Of course.