3 ms·

Singapore may have been a poor choice of example. In late August it was announced that 80% of the Singapore population was now vaccinated against COVID-19.[1]

Singapore may have been a poor choice of example. In late August it was announced that 80% of the Singapore population was now vaccinated against COVID-19.[1] However, in September and October there has been a dramatic surge in cases and deaths in that country.[2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-vaccinates-80-population-against-covid-19-2021-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-v... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/

acdha 5y ago
It's true that it's a dramatic increase, but the death rate still seems to be considerably lower, which is what you'd expect from a vaccine which is not sterilizing. The big question I'd have is what this would look like adjusted for age since American vaccination rates for the highest-risk age groups were also pretty high. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- angelzen 5y ago
  Nit. CFR may not be the best measure, as it is very sensitive to the level of testing, which I expect is higher in a small homogenous country like Singapore. Alternatively, raw deaths per million shows closer numbers, though unclear if Singapore peaked yet. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
  - acdha 5y ago
    Yeah, I definitely would want a professional analyst to compare things. The main one I’d be interested in is age-matched rates since as we saw with the Israeli data it’s easy to hit confounds like Simpson’s paradox.

acdha 5y ago

It's true that it's a dramatic increase, but the death rate still seems to be considerably lower, which is what you'd expect from a vaccine which is not sterilizing. The big question I'd have is what this would look like adjusted for age since American vaccination rates for the highest-risk age groups were also pretty high. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

angelzen 5y ago
Nit. CFR may not be the best measure, as it is very sensitive to the level of testing, which I expect is higher in a small homogenous country like Singapore. Alternatively, raw deaths per million shows closer numbers, though unclear if Singapore peaked yet. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- acdha 5y ago
  Yeah, I definitely would want a professional analyst to compare things. The main one I’d be interested in is age-matched rates since as we saw with the Israeli data it’s easy to hit confounds like Simpson’s paradox.