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Countries with very high vaccination rates such as Portugal or Singapore show quite clearly that all of these statements have been correct. At this point, antiv

by fsh 5y ago

Countries with very high vaccination rates such as Portugal or Singapore show quite clearly that all of these statements have been correct. At this point, antivaxers are the only reason why the pandemic is still an issue in industrialized countries.

phillc73 5y ago
Singapore may have been a poor choice of example. In late August it was announced that 80% of the Singapore population was now vaccinated against COVID-19.[1] However, in September and October there has been a dramatic surge in cases and deaths in that country.[2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-vaccinates-80-population-against-covid-19-2021-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-v... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/
- acdha 5y ago
  It's true that it's a dramatic increase, but the death rate still seems to be considerably lower, which is what you'd expect from a vaccine which is not sterilizing. The big question I'd have is what this would look like adjusted for age since American vaccination rates for the highest-risk age groups were also pretty high. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Nit. CFR may not be the best measure, as it is very sensitive to the level of testing, which I expect is higher in a small homogenous country like Singapore. Alternatively, raw deaths per million shows closer numbers, though unclear if Singapore peaked yet. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
    - acdha 5y ago
      Yeah, I definitely would want a professional analyst to compare things. The main one I’d be interested in is age-matched rates since as we saw with the Israeli data it’s easy to hit confounds like Simpson’s paradox.

by fsh 5y ago

phillc73 5y ago

Singapore may have been a poor choice of example. In late August it was announced that 80% of the Singapore population was now vaccinated against COVID-19.[1] However, in September and October there has been a dramatic surge in cases and deaths in that country.[2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-vaccinates-80-population-against-covid-19-2021-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-v... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/

acdha 5y ago
It's true that it's a dramatic increase, but the death rate still seems to be considerably lower, which is what you'd expect from a vaccine which is not sterilizing. The big question I'd have is what this would look like adjusted for age since American vaccination rates for the highest-risk age groups were also pretty high. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- angelzen 5y ago
  Nit. CFR may not be the best measure, as it is very sensitive to the level of testing, which I expect is higher in a small homogenous country like Singapore. Alternatively, raw deaths per million shows closer numbers, though unclear if Singapore peaked yet. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
  - acdha 5y ago
    Yeah, I definitely would want a professional analyst to compare things. The main one I’d be interested in is age-matched rates since as we saw with the Israeli data it’s easy to hit confounds like Simpson’s paradox.