7 ms·

You got it before I could edit :) But this is very much my point: we were sold a benefit-risk ratio that assumed the vaccines effectively curb transmission.

jrs235 5y ago
And if what we were/are being sold is reduced severe illness then that seems like a personal issue and the mandates don't make sense. I get it, if beds are in use by severely ill Covid patients that means less beds for others... then let the bed owners decide how they wish to allocate bed usage, just like some doctors are refusing to see non vaccinated patients.
pif 5y ago
And the vaccine _did_ curb transmission of the original variant. Variant Delta came later.
- omginternets 5y ago
  I don't recall the exact figures, but I believe it wasn't spectacular. Moreover, now that Delta is a thing, aren't the ethical issues nonetheless present.
  - croon 5y ago
    From [0] > A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated. [1] > This is only slightly lower than with the alpha variant, says Brechje de Gier at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands, who led the study. Her team had previously found that vaccinated people infected with alpha were 73 per cent less likely to infect unvaccinated people. [2] > What is important to realise, de Gier says, is that the full effect of vaccines on reducing transmission is even higher than 63 per cent, because most vaccinated people don’t become infected in the first place. [0] https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-l... [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.14.21264959v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.14.21264959v... [2] https://www.newscientist.com/definition/uk-covid-19-variant-b-1-1-7/ https://www.newscientist.com/definition/uk-covid-19-variant-...
- disambiguation 5y ago
  delta completely out competed the original variant, but for the sake of due diligence it would be nice to see data on how effective the vaccine is against the original variant
bedhead 5y ago
Yes, and rather than admit this plainly observable fact, incorporate this new information, then base policy choices on what we now know, we still have "health officials" and politicians from one side of the aisle sticking their fingers in their ears, closing their eyes, and shouting "Nah nah nah I can't hear you!" as they push illogical (and arguably wildly immoral) policies like vaccine mandates and perpetual masking and an overall unending bizarro world. I don't know how else to describe COVID anymore other than it's become the world's largest secular religion.
- pjc50 5y ago
  What do you propose? Let everyone get the virus, repeatedly? What's your target fatality rate?
- cml 5y ago
  This is how the lead author of the study we are discussing interprets the new information: “Our paper, which had a global impact within 24 hours of publication, provides important support for the following crucial public health actions: vaccinate the unvaccinated ASAP; give boosters to all those who are eligible ASAP; maintain social and public health measures despite vaccination.” (This is the fifth paragraph the linked article).
- chipgap98 5y ago
  Even if the vaccines don't entirely curb transmission, they reduce it and reduce the risk of severe illness. While for an individual this might impact their decision making framework, I don't see how it should change the framework for public health officials. > politicians from one side of the aisle sticking their fingers in their ears, closing their eyes, and shouting "Nah nah nah I can't hear you!" Politicians on the other side of the aisle are attempting to ban any COVID prevention measures at all. I agree that vaccine mandates aren't the only tool available to us, but it's hard to argue with the mandates when there are people fighting against mandatory testing, mask wearing, and social distancing.
  - bedhead 5y ago
    Oh vaccines reduce it by some vague amount, if at all, to vaccinated people whom you admit are at far less risk having been vaccinated? Oh well then go nuts, put in whatever draconian rules you want if it may or may not reduce some spread by some minor amount and means that someone gets COVID in 2023 instead of 2022. That's all the justification we need! Quarantine the kids. Fire police. Make everyone hate each other. Sounds totally worth it!! Yay!! This is the cult of safetyism. A total inability to process risk/reward and tradeoffs, and eschewing basic logic for "protection" whether real or imagined no matter the cost. All I sincerely ask to people such as yourself is, "What is your long-term plan? Is this forever for you?" Usually, I watch as their brains simply break down on the side of the highway. They have no answer because their logic is so bad they get stuck in an eddy with no way to get out. Welcome to the Church of COVID. And no, conservatives aren't banning prevention measures. Everyone alive is free to get vaccinated (and wear a mask) as most have even in places like Florida. They're banning punitive rules, and whether it's Florida or Texas or all of Scandinavia, they've demonstrated that there are no worse outcomes from simply allowing people to make their own health choices without figuratively putting a gun to their heads (mandates) or making them do anything they don't want to (masks). Meanwhile, half the world upon seeing this: "Nah nah nah I can't hear you!"
acdha 5y ago
What we were sold, specifically? One of the challenges to the way this has been been politicized is that the original claims (high efficacy against serious cases, imprecise but substantial efficacy against spread, both of which have held up quite well) were often drowned out by people making much stronger claims for political reasons such as they didn't work at all, or that failing to instantaneously stop the pandemic even at vaccination rates far below the target threshold meant the approach had failed.
- terracottage 5y ago
  "Summer of freedom" "Here we regain our freedom" "There will not be a 4th wave" That's what we were sold. Anyone who questioned it was called an antivax conspiracy theorist. And the worst part is, the namecallers still think they're on the right/smart side even after miles of backpedaling.
  - fsh 5y ago
    Countries with very high vaccination rates such as Portugal or Singapore show quite clearly that all of these statements have been correct. At this point, antivaxers are the only reason why the pandemic is still an issue in industrialized countries.
    - phillc73 5y ago
      Singapore may have been a poor choice of example. In late August it was announced that 80% of the Singapore population was now vaccinated against COVID-19.[1] However, in September and October there has been a dramatic surge in cases and deaths in that country.[2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-vaccinates-80-population-against-covid-19-2021-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-v... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/
      - acdha 5y ago
        It's true that it's a dramatic increase, but the death rate still seems to be considerably lower, which is what you'd expect from a vaccine which is not sterilizing. The big question I'd have is what this would look like adjusted for age since American vaccination rates for the highest-risk age groups were also pretty high. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
sjg007 5y ago
That is not what was sold.

jrs235 5y ago

And if what we were/are being sold is reduced severe illness then that seems like a personal issue and the mandates don't make sense. I get it, if beds are in use by severely ill Covid patients that means less beds for others... then let the bed owners decide how they wish to allocate bed usage, just like some doctors are refusing to see non vaccinated patients.

pif 5y ago

And the vaccine _did_ curb transmission of the original variant. Variant Delta came later.

omginternets 5y ago
I don't recall the exact figures, but I believe it wasn't spectacular. Moreover, now that Delta is a thing, aren't the ethical issues nonetheless present.
- croon 5y ago
  From [0] > A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated. [1] > This is only slightly lower than with the alpha variant, says Brechje de Gier at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands, who led the study. Her team had previously found that vaccinated people infected with alpha were 73 per cent less likely to infect unvaccinated people. [2] > What is important to realise, de Gier says, is that the full effect of vaccines on reducing transmission is even higher than 63 per cent, because most vaccinated people don’t become infected in the first place. [0] https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-l... [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.14.21264959v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.14.21264959v... [2] https://www.newscientist.com/definition/uk-covid-19-variant-b-1-1-7/ https://www.newscientist.com/definition/uk-covid-19-variant-...
disambiguation 5y ago
delta completely out competed the original variant, but for the sake of due diligence it would be nice to see data on how effective the vaccine is against the original variant

bedhead 5y ago

Yes, and rather than admit this plainly observable fact, incorporate this new information, then base policy choices on what we now know, we still have "health officials" and politicians from one side of the aisle sticking their fingers in their ears, closing their eyes, and shouting "Nah nah nah I can't hear you!" as they push illogical (and arguably wildly immoral) policies like vaccine mandates and perpetual masking and an overall unending bizarro world. I don't know how else to describe COVID anymore other than it's become the world's largest secular religion.

pjc50 5y ago
What do you propose? Let everyone get the virus, repeatedly? What's your target fatality rate?
cml 5y ago
This is how the lead author of the study we are discussing interprets the new information: “Our paper, which had a global impact within 24 hours of publication, provides important support for the following crucial public health actions: vaccinate the unvaccinated ASAP; give boosters to all those who are eligible ASAP; maintain social and public health measures despite vaccination.” (This is the fifth paragraph the linked article).
chipgap98 5y ago
Even if the vaccines don't entirely curb transmission, they reduce it and reduce the risk of severe illness. While for an individual this might impact their decision making framework, I don't see how it should change the framework for public health officials. > politicians from one side of the aisle sticking their fingers in their ears, closing their eyes, and shouting "Nah nah nah I can't hear you!" Politicians on the other side of the aisle are attempting to ban any COVID prevention measures at all. I agree that vaccine mandates aren't the only tool available to us, but it's hard to argue with the mandates when there are people fighting against mandatory testing, mask wearing, and social distancing.
- bedhead 5y ago
  Oh vaccines reduce it by some vague amount, if at all, to vaccinated people whom you admit are at far less risk having been vaccinated? Oh well then go nuts, put in whatever draconian rules you want if it may or may not reduce some spread by some minor amount and means that someone gets COVID in 2023 instead of 2022. That's all the justification we need! Quarantine the kids. Fire police. Make everyone hate each other. Sounds totally worth it!! Yay!! This is the cult of safetyism. A total inability to process risk/reward and tradeoffs, and eschewing basic logic for "protection" whether real or imagined no matter the cost. All I sincerely ask to people such as yourself is, "What is your long-term plan? Is this forever for you?" Usually, I watch as their brains simply break down on the side of the highway. They have no answer because their logic is so bad they get stuck in an eddy with no way to get out. Welcome to the Church of COVID. And no, conservatives aren't banning prevention measures. Everyone alive is free to get vaccinated (and wear a mask) as most have even in places like Florida. They're banning punitive rules, and whether it's Florida or Texas or all of Scandinavia, they've demonstrated that there are no worse outcomes from simply allowing people to make their own health choices without figuratively putting a gun to their heads (mandates) or making them do anything they don't want to (masks). Meanwhile, half the world upon seeing this: "Nah nah nah I can't hear you!"

acdha 5y ago

What we were sold, specifically? One of the challenges to the way this has been been politicized is that the original claims (high efficacy against serious cases, imprecise but substantial efficacy against spread, both of which have held up quite well) were often drowned out by people making much stronger claims for political reasons such as they didn't work at all, or that failing to instantaneously stop the pandemic even at vaccination rates far below the target threshold meant the approach had failed.

terracottage 5y ago
"Summer of freedom" "Here we regain our freedom" "There will not be a 4th wave" That's what we were sold. Anyone who questioned it was called an antivax conspiracy theorist. And the worst part is, the namecallers still think they're on the right/smart side even after miles of backpedaling.
- fsh 5y ago
  Countries with very high vaccination rates such as Portugal or Singapore show quite clearly that all of these statements have been correct. At this point, antivaxers are the only reason why the pandemic is still an issue in industrialized countries.
  - phillc73 5y ago
    Singapore may have been a poor choice of example. In late August it was announced that 80% of the Singapore population was now vaccinated against COVID-19.[1] However, in September and October there has been a dramatic surge in cases and deaths in that country.[2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-vaccinates-80-population-against-covid-19-2021-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-fully-v... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/
    - acdha 5y ago
      It's true that it's a dramatic increase, but the death rate still seems to be considerably lower, which is what you'd expect from a vaccine which is not sterilizing. The big question I'd have is what this would look like adjusted for age since American vaccination rates for the highest-risk age groups were also pretty high. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-14..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=true&country=USA~SGP https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

sjg007 5y ago

That is not what was sold.