7 ms·

The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

41 points by prostoalex 5y ago

fouadf 5y ago
I doubt that the official number of 5m is accurate anyway, it's probably much less. My grandma passed away last year, cause of death was registered as covid even though we all knew that it wasn't. I've heard about many similar to stories similar to mine I've also heard that hospitals can make money out of it.
- ekianjo 5y ago
  Indeed not uncommon and there's also people who died of totally different causes (car crashes) who were registered as dying of COVID just because they tested positive. we dont have any good data.
  - skinnymuch 5y ago
    What about the excess deaths compared to other times?
    - gravyjones 5y ago
      1. People stopped going to the hospital. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-29/coronavirus-people-avoid-visits-to-doctor https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-29/coronavi... 2. Untrained nurses were operating the ventilators, resulting in deaths. 3. Massive unemployment 4. Very unheathly eating/drinking/no exercise habits of lockdown. Weight gain stress. I could add more, but #1 is probably the biggest contributor. Surgeries were canceled, preventative care and diagnostic tests were drastically reduced during the "fearful" times. It is really sad.
      - joshuamorton 5y ago
        2 would be caused by covid. "People get covid induced pneumonia, but due to the overwhelming number of people in need of acute care, more than might normally do so die" is still "people dying due to covid" 1, 3 and 4 still happened in other parts of the world with even stricter lockdowns (Oceania, southeast Asia), but they didn't face the same excess mortality, so that doesn't fully explain things.
        gravyjones 5y ago
        I hear what you are saying, and maybe I have to look into what happened in other countries to know more. But right now my intiution tells me if there is double digit unemployment, people stop going to the hospital, and they believe it is 'the end of the world', then more deaths will be the result. How many more deaths? Thats the question.
    - ekianjo 5y ago
      > What about the excess deaths compared to other times? So a single factor (COVID) is responsible for the excess death? That's simplification at best, because in reality nothing is ever a single-variable problem.
      - Kim_Bruning 5y ago
        Hmm, try looking at <excess deaths> as a computation that takes the delta with a computation based on a control period. (unpacking: It actually measures the delta with a predicted trend. The trend calculation projects what current deaths should be, based on the situation in the past - which you can see as the control period. It's not perfect, but this should, reasonably, exclude most other factors fairly well. )
- boloust 5y ago
  This article is using excess deaths. What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths? Note that Oceania had some of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, but very low actual covid deaths. But Oceania had very low excess deaths, so lockdowns don't seem to be a good explanation.
  - ekianjo 5y ago
    > What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths? Lack of imagination much? See other commenter below explaining the various reasons why you might see excess death. Not everything is linked to COVID (at least not directly).
    - joshuamorton 5y ago
      Except that commenters reasons don't actually explain the observed effects. If lockdown policies were the cause, we'd have seen increased excess mortality in Australia, New Zealand and parts of Southeast Asia correlated with lockdowns. As far as I know, we didn't. You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the observed effect.
      - gravyjones 5y ago
        Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im being earnest.
        dragonwriter 5y ago
        > people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.
vibrato2 5y ago
Lol no it’s not.

41 points by prostoalex 5y ago

I doubt that the official number of 5m is accurate anyway, it's probably much less. My grandma passed away last year, cause of death was registered as covid even though we all knew that it wasn't. I've heard about many similar to stories similar to mine I've also heard that hospitals can make money out of it.

ekianjo 5y ago
Indeed not uncommon and there's also people who died of totally different causes (car crashes) who were registered as dying of COVID just because they tested positive. we dont have any good data.
- skinnymuch 5y ago
  What about the excess deaths compared to other times?
  - gravyjones 5y ago
    1. People stopped going to the hospital. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-29/coronavirus-people-avoid-visits-to-doctor https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-29/coronavi... 2. Untrained nurses were operating the ventilators, resulting in deaths. 3. Massive unemployment 4. Very unheathly eating/drinking/no exercise habits of lockdown. Weight gain stress. I could add more, but #1 is probably the biggest contributor. Surgeries were canceled, preventative care and diagnostic tests were drastically reduced during the "fearful" times. It is really sad.
    - joshuamorton 5y ago
      2 would be caused by covid. "People get covid induced pneumonia, but due to the overwhelming number of people in need of acute care, more than might normally do so die" is still "people dying due to covid" 1, 3 and 4 still happened in other parts of the world with even stricter lockdowns (Oceania, southeast Asia), but they didn't face the same excess mortality, so that doesn't fully explain things.
      - gravyjones 5y ago
        I hear what you are saying, and maybe I have to look into what happened in other countries to know more. But right now my intiution tells me if there is double digit unemployment, people stop going to the hospital, and they believe it is 'the end of the world', then more deaths will be the result. How many more deaths? Thats the question.
  - ekianjo 5y ago
    > What about the excess deaths compared to other times? So a single factor (COVID) is responsible for the excess death? That's simplification at best, because in reality nothing is ever a single-variable problem.
    - Kim_Bruning 5y ago
      Hmm, try looking at <excess deaths> as a computation that takes the delta with a computation based on a control period. (unpacking: It actually measures the delta with a predicted trend. The trend calculation projects what current deaths should be, based on the situation in the past - which you can see as the control period. It's not perfect, but this should, reasonably, exclude most other factors fairly well. )
boloust 5y ago
This article is using excess deaths. What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths? Note that Oceania had some of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, but very low actual covid deaths. But Oceania had very low excess deaths, so lockdowns don't seem to be a good explanation.
- ekianjo 5y ago
  > What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths? Lack of imagination much? See other commenter below explaining the various reasons why you might see excess death. Not everything is linked to COVID (at least not directly).
  - joshuamorton 5y ago
    Except that commenters reasons don't actually explain the observed effects. If lockdown policies were the cause, we'd have seen increased excess mortality in Australia, New Zealand and parts of Southeast Asia correlated with lockdowns. As far as I know, we didn't. You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the observed effect.
    - gravyjones 5y ago
      Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im being earnest.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.

vibrato2 5y ago

Lol no it’s not.