3 ms·
Someone ought to do a write-up from a game-theoretic perspective. He was offered a plea at 3 years, but instead gambled on an X% chance of 0 years, and a (100-
by michael_dorfman 18y ago
Someone ought to do a write-up from a game-theoretic perspective. He was offered a plea at 3 years, but instead gambled on an X% chance of 0 years, and a (100-X)% chance of 25 years. Where's the rational cutoff for X?
- ovi256 18y ago22/25, 88%. Anymore and the expectation of the gamble would be higher than 3 years.
- michael_dorfman 18y agoOK, but that's assuming the years are equally weighted. Three years is an extended "vacation", but he'd already have been out by now. 25 years, on the other hand, means not seeing the outside until his kids are married.