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I feel like we're talking past each other; I agree with 90% of what you say. It's just that you're focusing on the forces drivigg China's behavior, whether Chin

I feel like we're talking past each other; I agree with 90% of what you say. It's just that you're focusing on the forces drivigg China's behavior, whether China is fostering stability or not, and its broader role in the region in the 21st century, while I'm trying to anticipate exactly what would happen in a conflict over Taiwan. Yes, China is acting as a bully. But the universal response isn't standing up to China but cowering before it. US airlines are scared to even acknowledge the existence of a place called Taiwan. When Muji accidentally labeled some hangers as "Made in Taiwan," it only took a few days before it groveled before China and begged for forgiveness. I'm 100% in agreement with you that these things are ridiculous and a sign of deep-seated insecurity on mainland China's part. But these incidents also do not make me optimistic about how regional players will react in the case of war. Businesses and the general population will be eager for the conflict to be wound down as quickly as possible, regardless of long-term strategic costs. And without a broad regional coalition strongly committed to restraining China and rolling back any gains it has made during a conflict, Taiwan is (literally) dead in the water.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
Corporations are spineless. But that's not really relevant to the issue of military action. Again, I live in Taiwan and I'm realistic about Taiwan's odds of defending itself successfully without help from the West and Japan, which I put at close to 0. But I'm cautiously optimistic. Now that the US has removed itself from Afghanistan, there is a clear reorientation of its diplomatic and military focus to the Indo-Pacific. The US is getting closer to Taiwan, which is taking its defensive capabilities more seriously (albeit too late for comfort). Japan is basically remilitarizing and being more vocal about its willingness to counter Chinese threats. Australia is aligning itself with the US and UK to counter China. The US is even getting closer to India. China is only going to get more dangerous as its demographic and economic situations become more precarious, but its growing isolation is the best thing under the circumstances and might be one of the only things that keeps it in check. If it lashes out and is able to annex Taiwan, there will be significant consequences for the US and West, and the Indo-Pacific region won't be the same. But here's my final thought: if China takes Taiwan, it will take the US down a big notch and create a lot of uncertainty for the US role globally going forward. But this event does not really pose an existential threat to the US. The US would remain a very powerful nation even after a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Certainly nobody is going to invade the US. On the other hand, an attack on or invasion of Taiwan is an existential event for the CCP. If the CCP miscalculates in any way, it's the end of the CCP. Interestingly, even if CCP wins a battle for Taiwan, the CCP might ultimately lose the war because it's unlikely that the CCP can take Taiwan and get away with it economically and diplomatically. For a country that's already on shaky footing in these areas, it could be a case of "be careful what you wish for -- you just might get it".

LurkingPenguin 5y ago

Corporations are spineless. But that's not really relevant to the issue of military action. Again, I live in Taiwan and I'm realistic about Taiwan's odds of defending itself successfully without help from the West and Japan, which I put at close to 0. But I'm cautiously optimistic. Now that the US has removed itself from Afghanistan, there is a clear reorientation of its diplomatic and military focus to the Indo-Pacific. The US is getting closer to Taiwan, which is taking its defensive capabilities more seriously (albeit too late for comfort). Japan is basically remilitarizing and being more vocal about its willingness to counter Chinese threats. Australia is aligning itself with the US and UK to counter China. The US is even getting closer to India. China is only going to get more dangerous as its demographic and economic situations become more precarious, but its growing isolation is the best thing under the circumstances and might be one of the only things that keeps it in check. If it lashes out and is able to annex Taiwan, there will be significant consequences for the US and West, and the Indo-Pacific region won't be the same. But here's my final thought: if China takes Taiwan, it will take the US down a big notch and create a lot of uncertainty for the US role globally going forward. But this event does not really pose an existential threat to the US. The US would remain a very powerful nation even after a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Certainly nobody is going to invade the US. On the other hand, an attack on or invasion of Taiwan is an existential event for the CCP. If the CCP miscalculates in any way, it's the end of the CCP. Interestingly, even if CCP wins a battle for Taiwan, the CCP might ultimately lose the war because it's unlikely that the CCP can take Taiwan and get away with it economically and diplomatically. For a country that's already on shaky footing in these areas, it could be a case of "be careful what you wish for -- you just might get it".