It's not so much US can lose, rather perhaps US simply can't win against PRC anymore. In Clausewitz "war is politics by other means" sense, even the worst case

It's not so much US can lose, rather perhaps US simply can't win against PRC anymore. In Clausewitz "war is politics by other means" sense, even the worst case scenario for PRC, China still has the capability to destroy US hegemony / domestic security by attacking regional US protectorates and demonstrating US security commitiment to be meaningless at massive costs to US serenity (semi destruction / cyberwarfare). It's not a conflict US can insulate citizens againts. PRC is approaching or has exceeded in developing capabilities that could credibly threatening US military primacy, especially in her neighbourhood - US may still "defeat" PRC but at the cost of her empire. The same way most allied EU powers won WW2 but lost much of their global holdings and influence. Perhaps in US calculations, it maybe preferrable to not even try. The fallout from trying but failing to defend TW is much worse than simply not defending TW in the first place, which seems to be where recent US strategic thinking is pointing towards. Ultimately, PRC has grown to a point where even in defeat she will remain simply too powerful a regional actor. This is the point that PRC collapsist miss, PRC is too large, too developed, and too self sufficient (in context of war economy) to be constrained with-IN the region anyway. I would also watch out for further PRC ICBM/hypersonic developments over the next few years in the realm of refining accuracy. PRC rocket force with sub 100CEP ICBMs essentially fully deters US conventionally barring huge leaps in ABM defense. There's already evaluations of using AI to calibrate bespoke missile hardware that will increase accuracy by orders of magnitude. Imagine PRC with the capability of conventionally sinking USN capital ships in ports, more or less rendering entire US military projection structure useless. Which still isn't existential for US who can always retreat to safety of fortress America, whereas for PRC, breaking out of first island chain is a matter of survival at any cost.