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>That same thing will happen if crypto has a major run. The exchanges already conveniently "go down" when Bitcoin dumps even now To this point specifically: is

>That same thing will happen if crypto has a major run. The exchanges already conveniently "go down" when Bitcoin dumps even now To this point specifically: is there any proof this is malicious? Amazon, Facebook, Google have all had outages before; shouldn't we apply Hanlon's Razor when a cryptocurrency exchange fails to serve requests during a massive traffic spike?

graeme 5y ago
The exchanges never go down when the crypto price rises, only when it falls. Further, an honest exchange makes money on people’s trades. Going down when volume is high means giving up peak profits. Equivalent of amazon reliably going down on black friday.
- jimmydorry 5y ago
  Most exchanges started as garage-based operations and most were built quickly or shodily. It wouldn’t be surprising if most of them have enormous piles of technical debt, especially as the number of alt coins exploded. Making a robust exchange is hard and requires an amazon level of development. Huge movements in price correlate with massive increases in volume. The simplest explanation remains firmly in the realm of poor platform, in my mind, rather than nefarious and illegal manipulation. Just look at Robinhood. They offer a sleek looking product, but their crypto offering falls down under load (positive and negative) regularly.
- patchtopic 5y ago
  This has occasionally been mentioned elsewhere about some of the sketchier exchanges. I have never seen it mentioned with any of the exchanges I use - is there any non-anecdotal confirmation of this phenomena?
  - graeme 5y ago
    Here is Coinbase having an outage during last big dump: https://mobile.twitter.com/CoinbaseSupport/status/1453447862268809218 https://mobile.twitter.com/CoinbaseSupport/status/1453447862...
- oarabbus_ 5y ago
  Well, I still don't think that's concrete evidence of maliciousness. First and most importantly, the crypto market can drop 15-20%+ in a 24 hour period; similar rises take multiple days on high-volume, large-cap coins. This is actually not specific to cryptocurrencies, there's a well known phrase in the equity markets "bulls take the stairs, bears take the elevator (or 'the window')". Similarly, with such volatile assets, when the price falls dramatically, many people are running for the exits. On the other hand, when the price is skyrocketing, many people have a "hodl" mentality, think the price will rise up further, etc. If the price falls off a cliff everyone is trying to sell, but when the price spikes many feel "I missed my chance, better wait for a dip" and aren't rushing to buy.

graeme 5y ago

The exchanges never go down when the crypto price rises, only when it falls. Further, an honest exchange makes money on people’s trades. Going down when volume is high means giving up peak profits. Equivalent of amazon reliably going down on black friday.

jimmydorry 5y ago
Most exchanges started as garage-based operations and most were built quickly or shodily. It wouldn’t be surprising if most of them have enormous piles of technical debt, especially as the number of alt coins exploded. Making a robust exchange is hard and requires an amazon level of development. Huge movements in price correlate with massive increases in volume. The simplest explanation remains firmly in the realm of poor platform, in my mind, rather than nefarious and illegal manipulation. Just look at Robinhood. They offer a sleek looking product, but their crypto offering falls down under load (positive and negative) regularly.
patchtopic 5y ago
This has occasionally been mentioned elsewhere about some of the sketchier exchanges. I have never seen it mentioned with any of the exchanges I use - is there any non-anecdotal confirmation of this phenomena?
- graeme 5y ago
  Here is Coinbase having an outage during last big dump: https://mobile.twitter.com/CoinbaseSupport/status/1453447862268809218 https://mobile.twitter.com/CoinbaseSupport/status/1453447862...
oarabbus_ 5y ago
Well, I still don't think that's concrete evidence of maliciousness. First and most importantly, the crypto market can drop 15-20%+ in a 24 hour period; similar rises take multiple days on high-volume, large-cap coins. This is actually not specific to cryptocurrencies, there's a well known phrase in the equity markets "bulls take the stairs, bears take the elevator (or 'the window')". Similarly, with such volatile assets, when the price falls dramatically, many people are running for the exits. On the other hand, when the price is skyrocketing, many people have a "hodl" mentality, think the price will rise up further, etc. If the price falls off a cliff everyone is trying to sell, but when the price spikes many feel "I missed my chance, better wait for a dip" and aren't rushing to buy.