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Your comment is a useful corrective to the idea that China is certain to win a conflict over Taiwan. Or even that it is more likely than not to: if a victory we

Your comment is a useful corrective to the idea that China is certain to win a conflict over Taiwan. Or even that it is more likely than not to: if a victory were seen as probable, the CCP would have initiated a conflict yesterday. But I think your point of view goes a bit too far in the other direction and is too sanguine for the US. China is today, by PPP, the largest economy in the world, with the US coming in second. In 1940, the US was first, with Japan coming in seventh between India and France. It's true that contemporary China faces energy problems analogous to Showa-era Japan, but Japan's were much more severe. China has enough domestic crude production and the ability to import it from Kazakhstan and Russia to fuel its military indefinitely (albeit at significant domestic pain), while Japan had almost literally zero domestic production. > The US isn't seeking conflict with China, and the US is not trying to invade China or any other country. The US is simply pushing back against Chinese aggression and flagrant violations of international law. It has mutual defense treaties with a number of countries in the region (Japan, Philippines, South Korea) and has a huge economic interest in ensuring that freedom of navigation continues in international waters that are home to some of the world's most important shipping lanes. This is a weird part of your comment. It's unlikely that China would attack US warships in (what it sees as) its territorial waters out of nowhere. The more likely way a conflict would develop is it initiating some kind of aggression against Taiwan, which the US would respond to by shutting down that exact freedom of navigation in international waters in an attempt to starve China and its economy. As US warships enforced an embargo via threat, force, and even sinking Chinese and neutral civilian shipping, China would use that as justification for attacking US warships. > And it will almost certainly become a war between China and the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines, etc. because other countries in the region know what's at stake if the CCP is allowed to take over the Eastern hemisphere. Of course all those countries would prefer a constrained China. But, if the US isolates China's economy by an ocean embargo, it's effectively started a massive depression in all those countries simultaneously. They all have some reservoir of goodwill for the USA, but how long will their elected governments be able to tolerate double digit unemployment for the sake of an island they don't even recognize as a real country? The points about China being more isolated on the world stage than the US and having severe demographic issues are accurate.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
> China is today, by PPP, the largest economy in the world, with the US coming in second. PPP has its flaws/limitations, but I don't really see your point. China has 1.4 billion people, the US 330 million. Look at GDP per capita. This reveals one of the reasons China is getting so dangerous: its ability to escape the middle income trap is looking more and more doubtful. It's no surprise Xi is talking about "common prosperity". If he and his CCP sycophants can't deliver on their economic promises to the Chinese people, they are going to have big internal problems. The problem is that the easy gains have already been made and now China is facing a demographic cliff while it's preciously overleveraged economy is starting to show real cracks. > China has enough domestic crude production and the ability to import it from Kazakhstan and Russia to fuel its military indefinitely (albeit at significant domestic pain)... I'd suggest you're a little too sanguine about China's ability to maintain its oil supplies in a major conflict. > It's unlikely that China would attack US warships in (what it sees as) its territorial waters out of nowhere. The more likely way a conflict would develop is it initiating some kind of aggression against Taiwan, which the US would respond to by shutting down that exact freedom of navigation in international waters in an attempt to starve China and its economy. As US warships enforced an embargo via threat, force, and even sinking Chinese and neutral civilian shipping, China would use that as justification for attacking US warships. This is the weirdest part of your comment. If China attacks and tries to invade an island of 23 million people who want nothing to do with China, which has its own democratically-elected government and produces a huge part of the world's semiconductor supply, is the region and world supposed to idly stand by? I live in Taiwan and while I have serious doubts about Taiwan's ability to defend itself, Taiwan does have the ability to retaliate and cause pain in China. Furthermore, it's increasingly likely that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would involve Japan[1], which has a mutual defense treaty with the US. This really isn't just about the US. It's about the region. No country in Asia, save for North Korea, wants an imperial China free to take territory as it pleases. In any case, the only people who would buy a rationale for the Chinese to attack US warships would be members of the CCP and some subset of the Chinese population. Incidentally, based on my experience living in the region, I suspect that a good number of Chinese, perhaps the majority, are not at all eager for imperial war, and that number will grow if they are forced to experience the hardships that come with imperial war. [1] https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866539/japans-position-on-defending-taiwan-has-taken-a-remarkable-shift https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866539/japans-position-on...

LurkingPenguin 5y ago

> China is today, by PPP, the largest economy in the world, with the US coming in second. PPP has its flaws/limitations, but I don't really see your point. China has 1.4 billion people, the US 330 million. Look at GDP per capita. This reveals one of the reasons China is getting so dangerous: its ability to escape the middle income trap is looking more and more doubtful. It's no surprise Xi is talking about "common prosperity". If he and his CCP sycophants can't deliver on their economic promises to the Chinese people, they are going to have big internal problems. The problem is that the easy gains have already been made and now China is facing a demographic cliff while it's preciously overleveraged economy is starting to show real cracks. > China has enough domestic crude production and the ability to import it from Kazakhstan and Russia to fuel its military indefinitely (albeit at significant domestic pain)... I'd suggest you're a little too sanguine about China's ability to maintain its oil supplies in a major conflict. > It's unlikely that China would attack US warships in (what it sees as) its territorial waters out of nowhere. The more likely way a conflict would develop is it initiating some kind of aggression against Taiwan, which the US would respond to by shutting down that exact freedom of navigation in international waters in an attempt to starve China and its economy. As US warships enforced an embargo via threat, force, and even sinking Chinese and neutral civilian shipping, China would use that as justification for attacking US warships. This is the weirdest part of your comment. If China attacks and tries to invade an island of 23 million people who want nothing to do with China, which has its own democratically-elected government and produces a huge part of the world's semiconductor supply, is the region and world supposed to idly stand by? I live in Taiwan and while I have serious doubts about Taiwan's ability to defend itself, Taiwan does have the ability to retaliate and cause pain in China. Furthermore, it's increasingly likely that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would involve Japan[1], which has a mutual defense treaty with the US. This really isn't just about the US. It's about the region. No country in Asia, save for North Korea, wants an imperial China free to take territory as it pleases. In any case, the only people who would buy a rationale for the Chinese to attack US warships would be members of the CCP and some subset of the Chinese population. Incidentally, based on my experience living in the region, I suspect that a good number of Chinese, perhaps the majority, are not at all eager for imperial war, and that number will grow if they are forced to experience the hardships that come with imperial war. [1] https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866539/japans-position-on-defending-taiwan-has-taken-a-remarkable-shift https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866539/japans-position-on...