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> But, being so self-deluded, the US will take on an adversary that has not only 4 times the number of military-age men but also has a far greater manufacturing

> But, being so self-deluded, the US will take on an adversary that has not only 4 times the number of military-age men but also has a far greater manufacturing capacity. The number of military-age men is irrelevant in modern warfare and the type of conflict that the US and China would be engaged in. As for greater manufacturing capacity, the Japanese had excellent manufacturing capacity too. And just like Japan, China has major energy problems that will make it hugely vulnerable if there's a military conflict. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/07/china-energy-crisis-electricity-coal-pricing-renewables/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/07/china-energy-crisis-ele... https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59059093 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59059093 https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/01/economy/china-manufacturing-pmi-covid-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/01/economy/china-manufacturing-p... While the US has no shortage of its own problems, the image of a rising China is not quite an accurate one. Just like the Japanese in the run-up to WW2, China's growing political and military aggression in the region, which not only targets Taiwan but other countries like Japan, the Philippines, India and Australia, is a sign of China's problems, not its strength. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-united-states/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-unite... > The outcome will mirror what happened when the all-conquering Wehrmacht took on a Soviet Union that was twice its size in population and had far greater manufacturing capacity. This is the strangest part of your comment. The US isn't seeking conflict with China, and the US is not trying to invade China or any other country. The US is simply pushing back against Chinese aggression and flagrant violations of international law. It has mutual defense treaties with a number of countries in the region (Japan, Philippines, South Korea) and has a huge economic interest in ensuring that freedom of navigation continues in international waters that are home to some of the world's most important shipping lanes. The "self-deluded" US doesn't have "wolf warriors"[1], doesn't threaten on the daily peaceful, democratic neighbors with violent "reunification", isn't claiming vast international waters and the territory of other countries (as determined by international courts) as its own, doesn't respond to military partnerships between other countries with promises to punish them with "no mercy" and make sure their soldiers are the first to die[2], and so on. If there's a war between China and the US it will be started by China. And it will almost certainly become a war between China and the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines, etc. because other countries in the region know what's at stake if the CCP is allowed to take over the Eastern hemisphere. China has fewer allies than even the Nazis. It is increasingly isolated and appears to recognize that it screwed the pooch[3] in terms of its global image. Its overlevered, house of cards economy is showing major cracks[4] as it approaches a demographic cliff caused in large part by one-child. So yeah, the US isn't all-powerful. But don't delude yourself into believing that China is more powerful. If China was as powerful as some people appear to believe, it wouldn't be acting the way it is. [1] https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/how-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats-use-and-abuse-twitter/ https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/how-chinas-wolf-warrior... [2] https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-09-16/china-fires-back-at-aukus-alliance-with-violent-rhetoric-australian-troops-would-be-the-first-to-die https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-09-16... [3] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3135672/xi-jinping-wants-isolated-china-make-friends-and-win-over https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3135672/xi... [4] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/10/evergrande-china-us/620360/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/10/ev...

scarmig 5y ago
Your comment is a useful corrective to the idea that China is certain to win a conflict over Taiwan. Or even that it is more likely than not to: if a victory were seen as probable, the CCP would have initiated a conflict yesterday. But I think your point of view goes a bit too far in the other direction and is too sanguine for the US. China is today, by PPP, the largest economy in the world, with the US coming in second. In 1940, the US was first, with Japan coming in seventh between India and France. It's true that contemporary China faces energy problems analogous to Showa-era Japan, but Japan's were much more severe. China has enough domestic crude production and the ability to import it from Kazakhstan and Russia to fuel its military indefinitely (albeit at significant domestic pain), while Japan had almost literally zero domestic production. > The US isn't seeking conflict with China, and the US is not trying to invade China or any other country. The US is simply pushing back against Chinese aggression and flagrant violations of international law. It has mutual defense treaties with a number of countries in the region (Japan, Philippines, South Korea) and has a huge economic interest in ensuring that freedom of navigation continues in international waters that are home to some of the world's most important shipping lanes. This is a weird part of your comment. It's unlikely that China would attack US warships in (what it sees as) its territorial waters out of nowhere. The more likely way a conflict would develop is it initiating some kind of aggression against Taiwan, which the US would respond to by shutting down that exact freedom of navigation in international waters in an attempt to starve China and its economy. As US warships enforced an embargo via threat, force, and even sinking Chinese and neutral civilian shipping, China would use that as justification for attacking US warships. > And it will almost certainly become a war between China and the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines, etc. because other countries in the region know what's at stake if the CCP is allowed to take over the Eastern hemisphere. Of course all those countries would prefer a constrained China. But, if the US isolates China's economy by an ocean embargo, it's effectively started a massive depression in all those countries simultaneously. They all have some reservoir of goodwill for the USA, but how long will their elected governments be able to tolerate double digit unemployment for the sake of an island they don't even recognize as a real country? The points about China being more isolated on the world stage than the US and having severe demographic issues are accurate.
- 5y ago

scarmig 5y ago

Your comment is a useful corrective to the idea that China is certain to win a conflict over Taiwan. Or even that it is more likely than not to: if a victory were seen as probable, the CCP would have initiated a conflict yesterday. But I think your point of view goes a bit too far in the other direction and is too sanguine for the US. China is today, by PPP, the largest economy in the world, with the US coming in second. In 1940, the US was first, with Japan coming in seventh between India and France. It's true that contemporary China faces energy problems analogous to Showa-era Japan, but Japan's were much more severe. China has enough domestic crude production and the ability to import it from Kazakhstan and Russia to fuel its military indefinitely (albeit at significant domestic pain), while Japan had almost literally zero domestic production. > The US isn't seeking conflict with China, and the US is not trying to invade China or any other country. The US is simply pushing back against Chinese aggression and flagrant violations of international law. It has mutual defense treaties with a number of countries in the region (Japan, Philippines, South Korea) and has a huge economic interest in ensuring that freedom of navigation continues in international waters that are home to some of the world's most important shipping lanes. This is a weird part of your comment. It's unlikely that China would attack US warships in (what it sees as) its territorial waters out of nowhere. The more likely way a conflict would develop is it initiating some kind of aggression against Taiwan, which the US would respond to by shutting down that exact freedom of navigation in international waters in an attempt to starve China and its economy. As US warships enforced an embargo via threat, force, and even sinking Chinese and neutral civilian shipping, China would use that as justification for attacking US warships. > And it will almost certainly become a war between China and the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines, etc. because other countries in the region know what's at stake if the CCP is allowed to take over the Eastern hemisphere. Of course all those countries would prefer a constrained China. But, if the US isolates China's economy by an ocean embargo, it's effectively started a massive depression in all those countries simultaneously. They all have some reservoir of goodwill for the USA, but how long will their elected governments be able to tolerate double digit unemployment for the sake of an island they don't even recognize as a real country? The points about China being more isolated on the world stage than the US and having severe demographic issues are accurate.

5y ago