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Can anyone speak to the details of what is happening in the supply chain for this particular part series? (1N4148 [1]) The market seems very bullish on the man

Can anyone speak to the details of what is happening in the supply chain for this particular part series? (1N4148 [1]) The market seems very bullish on the manufacturer [2], Diodes Incorporated. Over the past six months their stock price has gone from around $72 to $99. [3] If lead times are over a year, wouldn't it make sense that a competitor will eventually step in and take some of that market share? If these were high-gate chips, I would understand a barrier to entry might protect Diodes Inc., but for something as simple as a diode I don't understand how they can lock up the market. [1] https://www.mouser.com/c/semiconductors/discrete-semiconductors/diodes-rectifiers/diodes-general-purpose-power-switching/?m=Diodes%20Incorporated&series=1N4148 https://www.mouser.com/c/semiconductors/discrete-semiconduct... [2] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nasdaq-diod-consensus-analyst-rating-2021-10-2-3/ https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nasdaq-diod-consen... [3] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIOD https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIOD

rasz 5y ago
This is so called jelly bean part, everyone makes it and there are still plenty from other manufacturers https://eu.mouser.com/c/semiconductors/discrete-semiconductors/diodes-rectifiers/diodes-general-purpose-power-switching/?q=1N4148&mounting%20style=SMD%2FSMT&instock=y https://eu.mouser.com/c/semiconductors/discrete-semiconducto...
dragontamer 5y ago
The "Jellybean" parts are the parts where you "don't really care about the specs", so you just buy one of the cheapest ones available. As such, Jellybean parts, like 1N4148, are usually extremely cheap. They have high volume, they're almost always in stock (sans current market conditions), and are relatively consistent across manufacturers. What we're seeing is an unprecedented spike in prices, and an incredible lengthening of lead-time. A diode is a semiconductor, but the most __primitive__ and cheapest design ever made. Literally the first semiconductor discovered back in the late 1800s. 1N4148 is the cheapest design. To see a shortage hit this part is rather historic and incredible.
- voakbasda 5y ago
  I would compare it to shortages of 22LR ammunition caused by spikes in demand (primarily resulting from recent presidential elections). Manufacturers do not want to invest in increasing supply during such a spike, because their margin is practically nothing. The cost of starting a new factory line probably will not be paid off before the spike subsides.

rasz 5y ago

This is so called jelly bean part, everyone makes it and there are still plenty from other manufacturers https://eu.mouser.com/c/semiconductors/discrete-semiconductors/diodes-rectifiers/diodes-general-purpose-power-switching/?q=1N4148&mounting%20style=SMD%2FSMT&instock=y https://eu.mouser.com/c/semiconductors/discrete-semiconducto...

dragontamer 5y ago

The "Jellybean" parts are the parts where you "don't really care about the specs", so you just buy one of the cheapest ones available. As such, Jellybean parts, like 1N4148, are usually extremely cheap. They have high volume, they're almost always in stock (sans current market conditions), and are relatively consistent across manufacturers. What we're seeing is an unprecedented spike in prices, and an incredible lengthening of lead-time. A diode is a semiconductor, but the most __primitive__ and cheapest design ever made. Literally the first semiconductor discovered back in the late 1800s. 1N4148 is the cheapest design. To see a shortage hit this part is rather historic and incredible.

voakbasda 5y ago
I would compare it to shortages of 22LR ammunition caused by spikes in demand (primarily resulting from recent presidential elections). Manufacturers do not want to invest in increasing supply during such a spike, because their margin is practically nothing. The cost of starting a new factory line probably will not be paid off before the spike subsides.