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The issue is not that we would go to war over Taiwan, or at least I hope not. What we would do is: 1. Seize all Chinese and Taiwanese foreign currency reserves
by rsj_hn 5y ago
The issue is not that we would go to war over Taiwan, or at least I hope not. What we would do is:
1. Seize all Chinese and Taiwanese foreign currency reserves - that's $3.7 Trillion gone in a poof.
2. Seize all Chinese and Taiwanese investment in the U.S - another several trillion in a poof.
3. Start a global trade war, and Europe would also join in, locking China out of exporting to the western democracies or participation in the dollar system. All those nations that owe debts to china because of Belt and Road? Those can't be paid, as they are transacted in dollars, and China can't touch a dollar now. From now on, China has to trade via a barter system with Russia.
China is already hated due to blowing off the CO2 targets, then throw in an unprovoked invasion and occupation of a democratic state -- the Europeans eat that stuff up.
Meanwhile, what does China get? A population of 23 million people that hate it. A destroyed economy in which 40% of its GDP vanishes overnight. Loss of all foreign currency reserves and an inability to purchase the energy and food that it needs.
Remember China is not even able to feed itself without dollars. Yes, the US will have a shortage of cheap TVs and it will hurt our supply chain, but we can migrate that supply chain to vietnam, Brazil, India, Mexico, etc. We have the rest of the world to keep outsourcing jobs to. China would have only Russia. Moreover China needs foreign coal, oil, soybeans, and pork in mass quantities every single year.
Absolutely none of that requires that even a single shot be fired. It would be ludicrous to engage in a shooting war with China.
- angelzen 5y agoShortage of cheap TVs, electronic components (top 3 exporters: HK, China, Taiwan) or antibiotics (China: 90% of global market). Nothing of consequence. No gains whatsoever. Other than proving that US is an obsolete paper tiger that is incapable of defending its allies and its overseas strategic interests. Note to the whole of SE Asia, including SK and Japan. Trillions of dollars gone in a poof: World, it's past time to move to a more stable currency. The British Empire failed to hold the Suez Canal in 1956. The Americans stood at ready to blow the UK fleet to smithereens and closed the deal by threatening a run on the British pound. In the aftermath, US raised to the role of global superpower and UK was relegated to the has-been rubbish pile. There is a distinct possibility that China may just walk into Taiwan with no open US opposition. Or they may think they can. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_integrated_circuit_exports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_integrate... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-has-cornered-the-market-on-antibiotics-so-the-u-s-must-rebuild-its-manufacturing-capacity-11619640612 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-has-cornered-the-mar... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2657873/Uncovered-American-duplicity-finally-explodes-myth-Special-Relationship-How-US-discussed-blasting-hell-UK-forces-Suez-Crisis-shameful-betrayals-historic-alliance.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2657873/Uncovered...