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From a Coinbase exec: "Tether is a ticking time bomb. Whenever it goes off, it'll be a 70-80% market correction for 2-3 years" Crypto continues to help nobody

by sub7 5y ago

From a Coinbase exec: "Tether is a ticking time bomb. Whenever it goes off, it'll be a 70-80% market correction for 2-3 years" Crypto continues to help nobody and achieve nothing in the real world. This administration has been criminally slow in shutting it down, lobby is strong.

webinvest 5y ago
No there won’t be a big long term correction from Tether because there are dozens of other stable coins now for people to temporarily sell into. There’s also the ability to short crypto and buy puts on crypto. All of that provides ways for speculators, investors, middle class savers, and early technology adopters to stay in the game. You’re like a doomsday predictor that will never see a doomsday happen. No real value? The AAVE crypto platform alone already holds more value ($23B) than the entire market cap of Ecuador’s stock market ($11B). The AAVE platform is literally more valuable than a country. AAVE is just one of many applications built on the Ethereum network. It speaks nothing of Uniswap, Maker, Yearn, Balancer, USDC, Compound, and many others. Bitcoin alone secures over 1 Trillion dollars.
- notahacker 5y ago
  The Quito stock exchange consists of over 300 companies in farming, forestry, power generation, medical care etc. They have physical and human capital and earn profits from their paying customers, whether or not people want to buy stocks which offer them a share of this profit The AAVE platform consists of individuals lending recently printed tokens to each other to buy other recently printed tokens in what is essentially a zero sum game with no connection to the real world unless they can convince outsiders to pay even more money for some of the tokens. The fact the latter is notionally valued at higher than the former pretty much underlines the OP's point about the lack of "real value" underpinning the whole thing...
  - webinvest 5y ago
    The difference is momentum and trust. Crypto is underlined by trust. Permissionless trust and cross-border trust. Either people don’t trust the Quito stock exchange to return all of the money back to shareholders or they don’t see their money going up in value there. So people don’t give them their money.
  - diveanon 5y ago
    You could make the same argument about any number of over valued VC funded startups.
- TrackerFF 5y ago
  Market psychology is hard to predict. Going from one coin to another in a state of crisis is like people dumping their X stocks to buy Y stocks, because X is crashing. Or selling their housing real-estate portfolio to buy some other class of real-estate. Casual "investors" sell their portfolios for hard cash when markets start crashing, which in turn induces others to sell. And if you're sufficiently leveraged, you're forced to sell - no mater how much belief you have in your investments.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
liquidise 5y ago
> Crypto continues to help nobody and achieve nothing in the real world Crypto posts on HN seem to be a hotbed for these sorts of hyperbolic, wholly unsubstantiated and objectively false comments. I wish i understood what the motivation was for these sorts of replies.
- sub7 5y ago
  Please show me a real world use case that's better than the status quo and is not speculation or gambling. It's been over 12 years and I'm still looking. Cryptoclowns can't use the it's too early excuse anymore. But they choose to listen to a handful of man children running around promising world peace via a distributed database.
  - annoyingnoob 5y ago
    There are several options to 'stake' (deposit) coins/tokens and earn interest. You can earn more interest in crypto than you can at a bank. Assuming you trust the underlying tech long enough for your investment horizon.
  - Acrobatic_Road 5y ago
    Easy: bypassing financial censorship. Hint: try buying a 4chan pass without cryptocurrency.
    - da39a3ee 5y ago
      Is that a joke? Your one example of real world value of crypto is that you can buy something on 4chan?
      - Acrobatic_Road 5y ago
        I could give you more examples if I needed to, but considering the argument always made here is that cryptocurrencies have precisely zero use cases, one example should suffice. If you want a better response, don't leave yourself open with sweeping generalizations.
md2020 5y ago
Spoken like somebody who knows nothing about crypto
not-elite 5y ago
> Crypto continues to help nobody and achieve nothing in the real world It's kind of surprising how little progress has been made. It is absolutely possible to use privacy-respecting low-fee tokens to purchase ebooks, purchase "no advertisement" article reads, or subscribe to periodicals. Even something like Taler is better than Visa and Mastercard. I would love to know why lwn.net, ars, or the register don't try. I would absolutely pay $0.25-$2.00 per read for the ~50 articles I read per month on these websites. Micropayments for tech readers seems like a good place to start. Tech readers use ad blockers, but are also willing to try new tools with janky UX.
- JeremyReimer 5y ago
  I believe the case for micropayments was shot down back in 2002 when Scott McCloud first proposed it as an option for webcomic authors in his comic post "I Can't Stop Thinking" (the original no longer exists at his site, but various rebuttals [1] are still around) Basically, people hate microtransactions. They hate the very idea of paying per article. They don't want to do it. Ars, among many other sites, offers yearly subscriptions with various benefits (such as no ads) and that business model has worked well for them for many years. [1] https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2001/06/22/magic-its-whats-for-dinner https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2001/06/22/magic-its-what...
seoaeu 5y ago
"70-80% market correction for 2-3 years" is a contradiction. A correction brings asset prices back in line with their true values. That a coinbase exec thinks the cryptocurrency is 3-5x overvalued is wild, but if that is true I don't see any particular reason to expect the prices to go back within a few years.
benjy81 5y ago
I run a globally, distributed company funded solely operated based on smart contracts and cryptocurrency/equity. We got 50 investors from around the world. Most of hackernews is exclusively focused on the United States, which is a very limited point of view. Try travel and see other parts of the world and you might understand it better.
- 4ggr0 5y ago
  And what does your company do, if I may ask?
- diveanon 5y ago
  Crypto as a fundraising mechanism is an existential risk to YC and its peers. Explains the constant bullshit you see on this forum whenever crypto is mentioned.

by sub7 5y ago

webinvest 5y ago

No there won’t be a big long term correction from Tether because there are dozens of other stable coins now for people to temporarily sell into. There’s also the ability to short crypto and buy puts on crypto. All of that provides ways for speculators, investors, middle class savers, and early technology adopters to stay in the game. You’re like a doomsday predictor that will never see a doomsday happen. No real value? The AAVE crypto platform alone already holds more value ($23B) than the entire market cap of Ecuador’s stock market ($11B). The AAVE platform is literally more valuable than a country. AAVE is just one of many applications built on the Ethereum network. It speaks nothing of Uniswap, Maker, Yearn, Balancer, USDC, Compound, and many others. Bitcoin alone secures over 1 Trillion dollars.

notahacker 5y ago
The Quito stock exchange consists of over 300 companies in farming, forestry, power generation, medical care etc. They have physical and human capital and earn profits from their paying customers, whether or not people want to buy stocks which offer them a share of this profit The AAVE platform consists of individuals lending recently printed tokens to each other to buy other recently printed tokens in what is essentially a zero sum game with no connection to the real world unless they can convince outsiders to pay even more money for some of the tokens. The fact the latter is notionally valued at higher than the former pretty much underlines the OP's point about the lack of "real value" underpinning the whole thing...
- webinvest 5y ago
  The difference is momentum and trust. Crypto is underlined by trust. Permissionless trust and cross-border trust. Either people don’t trust the Quito stock exchange to return all of the money back to shareholders or they don’t see their money going up in value there. So people don’t give them their money.
- diveanon 5y ago
  You could make the same argument about any number of over valued VC funded startups.
TrackerFF 5y ago
Market psychology is hard to predict. Going from one coin to another in a state of crisis is like people dumping their X stocks to buy Y stocks, because X is crashing. Or selling their housing real-estate portfolio to buy some other class of real-estate. Casual "investors" sell their portfolios for hard cash when markets start crashing, which in turn induces others to sell. And if you're sufficiently leveraged, you're forced to sell - no mater how much belief you have in your investments.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

liquidise 5y ago

> Crypto continues to help nobody and achieve nothing in the real world Crypto posts on HN seem to be a hotbed for these sorts of hyperbolic, wholly unsubstantiated and objectively false comments. I wish i understood what the motivation was for these sorts of replies.

sub7 5y ago
Please show me a real world use case that's better than the status quo and is not speculation or gambling. It's been over 12 years and I'm still looking. Cryptoclowns can't use the it's too early excuse anymore. But they choose to listen to a handful of man children running around promising world peace via a distributed database.
- annoyingnoob 5y ago
  There are several options to 'stake' (deposit) coins/tokens and earn interest. You can earn more interest in crypto than you can at a bank. Assuming you trust the underlying tech long enough for your investment horizon.
- Acrobatic_Road 5y ago
  Easy: bypassing financial censorship. Hint: try buying a 4chan pass without cryptocurrency.
  - da39a3ee 5y ago
    Is that a joke? Your one example of real world value of crypto is that you can buy something on 4chan?
    - Acrobatic_Road 5y ago
      I could give you more examples if I needed to, but considering the argument always made here is that cryptocurrencies have precisely zero use cases, one example should suffice. If you want a better response, don't leave yourself open with sweeping generalizations.

md2020 5y ago

Spoken like somebody who knows nothing about crypto

not-elite 5y ago

> Crypto continues to help nobody and achieve nothing in the real world It's kind of surprising how little progress has been made. It is absolutely possible to use privacy-respecting low-fee tokens to purchase ebooks, purchase "no advertisement" article reads, or subscribe to periodicals. Even something like Taler is better than Visa and Mastercard. I would love to know why lwn.net, ars, or the register don't try. I would absolutely pay $0.25-$2.00 per read for the ~50 articles I read per month on these websites. Micropayments for tech readers seems like a good place to start. Tech readers use ad blockers, but are also willing to try new tools with janky UX.

JeremyReimer 5y ago
I believe the case for micropayments was shot down back in 2002 when Scott McCloud first proposed it as an option for webcomic authors in his comic post "I Can't Stop Thinking" (the original no longer exists at his site, but various rebuttals [1] are still around) Basically, people hate microtransactions. They hate the very idea of paying per article. They don't want to do it. Ars, among many other sites, offers yearly subscriptions with various benefits (such as no ads) and that business model has worked well for them for many years. [1] https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2001/06/22/magic-its-whats-for-dinner https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2001/06/22/magic-its-what...

seoaeu 5y ago

"70-80% market correction for 2-3 years" is a contradiction. A correction brings asset prices back in line with their true values. That a coinbase exec thinks the cryptocurrency is 3-5x overvalued is wild, but if that is true I don't see any particular reason to expect the prices to go back within a few years.

benjy81 5y ago

I run a globally, distributed company funded solely operated based on smart contracts and cryptocurrency/equity. We got 50 investors from around the world. Most of hackernews is exclusively focused on the United States, which is a very limited point of view. Try travel and see other parts of the world and you might understand it better.

4ggr0 5y ago
And what does your company do, if I may ask?
diveanon 5y ago
Crypto as a fundraising mechanism is an existential risk to YC and its peers. Explains the constant bullshit you see on this forum whenever crypto is mentioned.