3 ms·
When you have an outlier like this bulb you can't make any good statistical judgements about it unless it was part of a controlled experiment. This bulb is a s
by giantrobot 5y ago
When you have an outlier like this bulb you can't make any good statistical judgements about it unless it was part of a controlled experiment.
This bulb is a sample size of one. We might roughly know some details about its original construction and early operational life but not enough to really draw conclusions from. The only way to get more details about it will be a postmortem examination of its physical qualities.
Due to its age we have little knowledge of its specific construction details. Were the factory specs followed exactly (or even recorded) or was some of the fabrication machinery tuned by the operator? Did this bulb end up with thicker than normal glass or filament? What was the mortality rate of other bulbs in its batch? Does the fire station have better (or worse) than typical wiring? Did it have bad wiring early in the bulb's life to unintentionally under-load it?
Sometimes extreme outliers are just extreme outliers. A postmortem examination of the bulb might tell you it had a manufacturing defect giving it thicker than typical filament that combined with babying it for the past 50 years extended its life.
Sorry it's not just being contrarian. Outliers are outliers. Just because something is an outlier in a distribution doesn't automatically mean there's some hidden truth of the universe to be revealed.