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More CO2 in the atmosphere should result in a greening effect, right? Measurements of warming in these models are controversial. How can they establish that 0,

More CO2 in the atmosphere should result in a greening effect, right? Measurements of warming in these models are controversial. How can they establish that 0,25 increase in the average temperature of the Earth has occurred? How does an average even makes sense, in such discrepancy in temperatures observed worldwide. How can models properly reflect the reality of 0.25c degrees, or whatever low predicted increase, will have on the planet? Also, how do they account for urbanization effects (which in itself causes warming), and placement of thermometers around these areas. I have more questions than certainties about this issue.

sampo 5y ago
> How does an average even makes sense, in such discrepancy in temperatures observed worldwide. > Also, how do they account for urbanization effects (which in itself causes warming), and placement of thermometers around these areas. Related to your worries, 11 years ago a group of physicists from outside the meteorology and climate science community, had similar worries. Maybe meteorologists and climate scientists haven't done a good analysis of the existing land surface temperature measurements? What about the urban heat island effect, growing cities, and moving measurement locations? These physicists started the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project, went back to the original raw data, and reanalyzed everything, developing their own new statistical methods as needed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth The result? The same observed warming rate as in the previous studies. Maybe this kind of reanalysis needs to be done again every 10-20 years? Kind of like rewriting software from scratch.
- kragen 5y ago
  It would be super awesome to have a fully reproducible version of the IPCC model so that anyone can download it and not only reproduce the original predictions but see what variations it's sensitive to.
kragen 5y ago
These models are controversial mostly because there are vested interests trying to create controversy around them; the actual scientific controversy is hard to find among all the random noise questions posted on marginally relevant discussion threads by people who evidently haven't read even the relevant Wikipedia articles, much less any papers on the actual models and predictions, even though there are entire journals full of them. In particular, your questions about how the increase is measured are answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Robustness_of_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_recor..., your questions about the impact of land use changes are answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#Changes_of_the_land_surface https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#Changes_of_the_..., your question about how the models are calibrated to predict future effects is partly answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change#Warming_projections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change#Warm..., and your question about how it makes sense to measure a temperature as an average reveals that you don't know what a temperature is and is answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature#Microscopic_statistical_mechanical_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature#Microscopic_statis.... You really need to rethink where you've been getting your information from and start practicing some minimal epistemic hygiene.

sampo 5y ago

> How does an average even makes sense, in such discrepancy in temperatures observed worldwide. > Also, how do they account for urbanization effects (which in itself causes warming), and placement of thermometers around these areas. Related to your worries, 11 years ago a group of physicists from outside the meteorology and climate science community, had similar worries. Maybe meteorologists and climate scientists haven't done a good analysis of the existing land surface temperature measurements? What about the urban heat island effect, growing cities, and moving measurement locations? These physicists started the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project, went back to the original raw data, and reanalyzed everything, developing their own new statistical methods as needed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth The result? The same observed warming rate as in the previous studies. Maybe this kind of reanalysis needs to be done again every 10-20 years? Kind of like rewriting software from scratch.

kragen 5y ago
It would be super awesome to have a fully reproducible version of the IPCC model so that anyone can download it and not only reproduce the original predictions but see what variations it's sensitive to.

kragen 5y ago

These models are controversial mostly because there are vested interests trying to create controversy around them; the actual scientific controversy is hard to find among all the random noise questions posted on marginally relevant discussion threads by people who evidently haven't read even the relevant Wikipedia articles, much less any papers on the actual models and predictions, even though there are entire journals full of them. In particular, your questions about how the increase is measured are answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Robustness_of_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_recor..., your questions about the impact of land use changes are answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#Changes_of_the_land_surface https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#Changes_of_the_..., your question about how the models are calibrated to predict future effects is partly answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change#Warming_projections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change#Warm..., and your question about how it makes sense to measure a temperature as an average reveals that you don't know what a temperature is and is answered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature#Microscopic_statistical_mechanical_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature#Microscopic_statis.... You really need to rethink where you've been getting your information from and start practicing some minimal epistemic hygiene.