3 ms·

My theory is: - In 20 years, 80% of the people in will be kept alive by welfare, supplemented by their hourly job. Enough to get a small apartment, utilities,

My theory is: - In 20 years, 80% of the people in will be kept alive by welfare, supplemented by their hourly job. Enough to get a small apartment, utilities, cell phone, cheap but unhealthy food, and shopping at the dollar store. And free tv/movie/music/book/sports entertainment via the internet. - 15% will be the middlemen, extracting value from the others via service or thievery. They will be the new middle class. They can afford the sometimes luxury. - the other 5.5% will be specialized knowledge workers. They will be the one maintaining the software/hardware to make sure nothing goes wrong. They can afford lots of luxury, but will be taxed heavily, as they are the only workhorse left in the society. - 0.1% will be entertainers. They will make sure that people are entertained well enough not to riot. - and the 0.4% will rule everyone.

eru 15y ago
I'd guess that the material welfare of the 80% will be far better than what you described. Just their access to positional goods (e.g. social status,sea front property) that is good where being better than somebody else is part of their allure, will be scarce for them.
- chailatte 15y ago
  I would say that's too optimistic. What I am describing of the 80% is simply what is going on with the unemployed/underemployed (~16% today), the people on food stamps (12% today) and the retired collecting SS without savings (~3% today). I don't see why in 20 years, these people would have their welfare increased to such a level that they can live a middle class life (a house, nice car, good school for their kids, money to travel, visit to good restaurants) Unless you're saying the 80% kidnaps the government and made the rich and the middle class give them more money. Which I can't see without massive civil upheavel and the population reduction of those 80%.
  - eru 15y ago
    If, and that's a big if, you aren't a spendthrift you can live relatively comfortably on European levels of welfare. That means living in a modern apartment, car that gets you there (or public transport, which is actually feasible in Europe), some travel. Schooling is provided by the government mostly, and good schooling is not that much more costly to provide than bad schooling. Move to Finland or Sweden, if that's your priority. The food in good restaurants is not really better than in adequate restaurants. Visiting a fancy restaurant is more of a positional good to show and enjoy your social status. Oh, and before I forget: Those central and northern Europeans countries are not the countries that are currently in agonizing debt.
    - chailatte 15y ago
      Most European countries (just like the US) have been living beyond their means, so I only could see a decreasing living standard from here on out. Look at what happened to inner cities London as a precursor to most European cities. As for the few rich central/northern European countries, I do agree that those on welfare will live nicely compared to anywhere else in the world. Sadly, its quite hard for normal people to emigrate to those countries. And they won't be immune to the collapse if they keep propping up the other failing countries. I would say the fancy food phenomenon is only specific to US; good food can be found anywhere in Asia and Europe. In US, the difference would be between Denny's and a michelin starred restaurant.
christkv 15y ago
I think the word you are looking for here is neo-feudal :)
- chailatte 15y ago
  Ah, thank you :) I wasn't aware of this. Neofeudalism: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neofeudalism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neofeudalism

eru 15y ago

I'd guess that the material welfare of the 80% will be far better than what you described. Just their access to positional goods (e.g. social status,sea front property) that is good where being better than somebody else is part of their allure, will be scarce for them.

chailatte 15y ago
I would say that's too optimistic. What I am describing of the 80% is simply what is going on with the unemployed/underemployed (~16% today), the people on food stamps (12% today) and the retired collecting SS without savings (~3% today). I don't see why in 20 years, these people would have their welfare increased to such a level that they can live a middle class life (a house, nice car, good school for their kids, money to travel, visit to good restaurants) Unless you're saying the 80% kidnaps the government and made the rich and the middle class give them more money. Which I can't see without massive civil upheavel and the population reduction of those 80%.
- eru 15y ago
  If, and that's a big if, you aren't a spendthrift you can live relatively comfortably on European levels of welfare. That means living in a modern apartment, car that gets you there (or public transport, which is actually feasible in Europe), some travel. Schooling is provided by the government mostly, and good schooling is not that much more costly to provide than bad schooling. Move to Finland or Sweden, if that's your priority. The food in good restaurants is not really better than in adequate restaurants. Visiting a fancy restaurant is more of a positional good to show and enjoy your social status. Oh, and before I forget: Those central and northern Europeans countries are not the countries that are currently in agonizing debt.
  - chailatte 15y ago
    Most European countries (just like the US) have been living beyond their means, so I only could see a decreasing living standard from here on out. Look at what happened to inner cities London as a precursor to most European cities. As for the few rich central/northern European countries, I do agree that those on welfare will live nicely compared to anywhere else in the world. Sadly, its quite hard for normal people to emigrate to those countries. And they won't be immune to the collapse if they keep propping up the other failing countries. I would say the fancy food phenomenon is only specific to US; good food can be found anywhere in Asia and Europe. In US, the difference would be between Denny's and a michelin starred restaurant.

christkv 15y ago

I think the word you are looking for here is neo-feudal :)

chailatte 15y ago
Ah, thank you :) I wasn't aware of this. Neofeudalism: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neofeudalism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neofeudalism