8 ms·

Get Out While You Can

30 points by cwan 15y ago

jespi88 15y ago
I can't help but be reminded of Mike Rowe's (the host of Dirty Jobs) testimony before congress. There is going to be a major shift in attitudes towards going to college when the average Masters student realizes that the starting salary for skilled labor (i.e. electrician, plumber, etc) is higher than what they can expect to make. In my humble opinion, college gives the average BA student a whole slew of soft skills and trivial knowledge that adds little value to a company straight out of school.
mikeleeorg 15y ago
I've been meeting with two high school teachers from Silicon Valley who are enthusiastic about technology - especially "edtech" (education technology) - while still retaining a critical eye towards them. They are also remarkable teachers who apply as much science as art to their classrooms. One of them even crafted an organizational & classroom management system several years ago and has been training new, willing teachers in that system. Both also have impressive backgrounds (one is a Harvard grad, in case you care about that sorta thing) and work at a high school that serves a predominantly low-income, underprivileged population. Long story short, these are the educators of the future. They aren't afraid technology and have evolved their teaching styles to mesh with it well. And younger teachers who are rising through the ranks now will be even more tech-savvy and progressive in mindset. I'm pretty sure James Miller is correct in his article that higher education, as it is today, will change significantly. It has to. But I don't necessarily think it will mean a significant drop in demand for college professors. Perhaps there will be a significant drop in demand for bad college professors, but not good ones with an evolved teaching style (whatever that will be).
keiferski 15y ago
Like every single article on the subject, the author fails to propose an alternate credential system that will replace college. Will some academics (like the author) lose their jobs to technology? Probably, but that has little to do with the credential aspect of a degree.
- tptacek 15y ago
  Outside of The Professions, where is college an effective credential system? College is clearly not that important in our field. Even at the companies that most famously do use degrees as selection criteria, the requirement is trivially circumvented with the right work experience.
  - keiferski 15y ago
    Outside of the silicon valley/ tech industry, it's impossible to get a decent job without a degree.
    - tptacek 15y ago
      You mean except in trading, sales, marketing, and management of those fields and technology? Like I said: outside the Professions, where is the degree an absolute requirement? A degree is necessary to be an accountant, a lawyer, a doctor, or an (non-computing) engineer. But that's a small slice of the overall workforce. And sure, especially in the Fortune 1000, companies strongly consider degrees even outside the professions. But I guarantee you that success in (say) sales has almost nothing to do with the degree (or lack thereof) you start with, and management of sales teams has everything to do with prior sales success.
      - keiferski 15y ago
        You can't get a job as a secretary without a degree these days. There is a bubble in Silicon Valley, but it's not an economic one...
        tptacek 15y ago
        Yeah I think you're just wrong.
        cosgroveb 15y ago
        I have a friend at a Fortune 500 where I used to work who started working as an administrative assistant (secretary) and now 4 years later is a project manager and is making more than I did as a fresh out of college as a junior dev. She only has a high school diploma. I can think of at least three other similar examples at the same financial institution. There are lots of ways into "real" jobs without a degree if you're smart and you find the right path into the career you want (obviously this does not work for professions with licensing bodies).
smtf 15y ago
The pervading opinion I've seen over the years is that University degrees are mainly arbitrary hurdles for professional jobs. I don't necessarily agree, but that is besides my point. If people at large really think University is an extravagant waste then we are now in a position, to do as the op suggests, and implement the technology to "fix" that "problem". Technology optimizes many other areas, even ones as deeply entrenched as post secondary education. It's not as if we will have to throw all the tenure profs. to the wolves either, someone is going to have to be curator of the online material after all. Things change, sometimes even in academia.
- lumerein 15y ago
  It's not as if we will have to throw all the tenure profs. to the wolves either, someone is going to have to be curator of the online material after all. This was precisely my thought in reading through the segment of the article dramatizing the "mortal threat information technology poses". The author alludes to artificial intelligence sufficiently capable of replacing a college professor in 20 years and attempts to tie this "threat" to today's economic and political climate and his own vague predictions of both 20 years down the line. It's not as if a professor could be adequately replaced by an AI tomorrow. As it currently stands, online or not, a professor with appropriate knowledge is necessary to prepare and teach a course. It's not as if the job position vanishes when a course is taught online. As a current student who has taken five out of two dozen courses online: an effective professor is still key to teaching material to students, whether the classroom is physical or virtual.
tete 15y ago
True, but everyone tells people to be realistic and not idealistic. I think that's one (not the only) reason for things becoming better. In today's world swimming with the crowd is what works best for most people. Not because it is better, but because everyone does and therefore don't know anything else. However continuing to live without a plan won't really get you anywhere either, so "works best" isn't completely true.
roobeelee 15y ago
"...what would happen if most of your school’s peer institutions replaced expensive tenured faculty with cheap online courses and used the savings to cut tuition by 50 percent." Tenured professors at research universities are 90% there to do research, not to teach. I don't think they're replaceable in that way.
LiggityLew 15y ago
I agree with the professor's sentiment. Technology is and will continue to change education. Non-research professors will decline in demand. But he sites a common misinterpretation of Moore's Law as his evidence. Moore's Law doesn't say computing power (or speed) will double every 1 1/2 years, but the number transistors in microprocessors will double. But because of heat concerns we've had to move to multi-core processors, and the speed has hit a plateau. People might think "I've got two cores, so I'm twice as fast", which is completely incorrect. Computing power is increasing, but there is no evidence that in 20 years it will increase 2^20. edit: actually, he's wrong on the 2^20 too. It's every 1 1/2 years, so it's more like 2^13= 8192 (let's say 10,000) times faster.
twodayslate 15y ago
I try to learn online but I find it really hard. It is very distracting. I find a real person teaching me to be much more effective.
johngunderman 15y ago
I disagree with his argument. While it is certainly quite possible that there will be a collapse in education for the liberal arts, the field of engineering will need higher education for a long time to come. Of course, many classes may be taken online, which lessens the necessity. However, I have yet to see an online lab course. Equipment is expensive, and proper training is important. I can't imagine that many people would hire an engineer who had no experience outside of online classes, regardless of whether or not they obtained a degree. Beyond the basics of education, graduate studies are something you can't just "do online" (yet). You may need a lab, need a professor to work with, and you certainly need funding for whatever you are researching. While education as we know it is bound to change, I think that the technical side of most universities is in no immediate danger.
- Astrohacker 15y ago
  > I have yet to see an online lab course. Equipment is expensive, and proper training is important... The students can rent the equipment and acquire training online.
  - evilduck 15y ago
    This obviously doesn't work for mining engineering or nuclear engineering students.
    - Astrohacker 15y ago
      They can tour the mine or nuclear reactor, or work there. Colleges and universities add nothing to this.

30 points by cwan 15y ago

I can't help but be reminded of Mike Rowe's (the host of Dirty Jobs) testimony before congress. There is going to be a major shift in attitudes towards going to college when the average Masters student realizes that the starting salary for skilled labor (i.e. electrician, plumber, etc) is higher than what they can expect to make. In my humble opinion, college gives the average BA student a whole slew of soft skills and trivial knowledge that adds little value to a company straight out of school.

mikeleeorg 15y ago

I've been meeting with two high school teachers from Silicon Valley who are enthusiastic about technology - especially "edtech" (education technology) - while still retaining a critical eye towards them. They are also remarkable teachers who apply as much science as art to their classrooms. One of them even crafted an organizational & classroom management system several years ago and has been training new, willing teachers in that system. Both also have impressive backgrounds (one is a Harvard grad, in case you care about that sorta thing) and work at a high school that serves a predominantly low-income, underprivileged population. Long story short, these are the educators of the future. They aren't afraid technology and have evolved their teaching styles to mesh with it well. And younger teachers who are rising through the ranks now will be even more tech-savvy and progressive in mindset. I'm pretty sure James Miller is correct in his article that higher education, as it is today, will change significantly. It has to. But I don't necessarily think it will mean a significant drop in demand for college professors. Perhaps there will be a significant drop in demand for bad college professors, but not good ones with an evolved teaching style (whatever that will be).

keiferski 15y ago

Like every single article on the subject, the author fails to propose an alternate credential system that will replace college. Will some academics (like the author) lose their jobs to technology? Probably, but that has little to do with the credential aspect of a degree.

tptacek 15y ago
Outside of The Professions, where is college an effective credential system? College is clearly not that important in our field. Even at the companies that most famously do use degrees as selection criteria, the requirement is trivially circumvented with the right work experience.
- keiferski 15y ago
  Outside of the silicon valley/ tech industry, it's impossible to get a decent job without a degree.
  - tptacek 15y ago
    You mean except in trading, sales, marketing, and management of those fields and technology? Like I said: outside the Professions, where is the degree an absolute requirement? A degree is necessary to be an accountant, a lawyer, a doctor, or an (non-computing) engineer. But that's a small slice of the overall workforce. And sure, especially in the Fortune 1000, companies strongly consider degrees even outside the professions. But I guarantee you that success in (say) sales has almost nothing to do with the degree (or lack thereof) you start with, and management of sales teams has everything to do with prior sales success.
    - keiferski 15y ago
      You can't get a job as a secretary without a degree these days. There is a bubble in Silicon Valley, but it's not an economic one...
      - tptacek 15y ago
        Yeah I think you're just wrong.
      - cosgroveb 15y ago
        I have a friend at a Fortune 500 where I used to work who started working as an administrative assistant (secretary) and now 4 years later is a project manager and is making more than I did as a fresh out of college as a junior dev. She only has a high school diploma. I can think of at least three other similar examples at the same financial institution. There are lots of ways into "real" jobs without a degree if you're smart and you find the right path into the career you want (obviously this does not work for professions with licensing bodies).

smtf 15y ago

The pervading opinion I've seen over the years is that University degrees are mainly arbitrary hurdles for professional jobs. I don't necessarily agree, but that is besides my point. If people at large really think University is an extravagant waste then we are now in a position, to do as the op suggests, and implement the technology to "fix" that "problem". Technology optimizes many other areas, even ones as deeply entrenched as post secondary education. It's not as if we will have to throw all the tenure profs. to the wolves either, someone is going to have to be curator of the online material after all. Things change, sometimes even in academia.

lumerein 15y ago
It's not as if we will have to throw all the tenure profs. to the wolves either, someone is going to have to be curator of the online material after all. This was precisely my thought in reading through the segment of the article dramatizing the "mortal threat information technology poses". The author alludes to artificial intelligence sufficiently capable of replacing a college professor in 20 years and attempts to tie this "threat" to today's economic and political climate and his own vague predictions of both 20 years down the line. It's not as if a professor could be adequately replaced by an AI tomorrow. As it currently stands, online or not, a professor with appropriate knowledge is necessary to prepare and teach a course. It's not as if the job position vanishes when a course is taught online. As a current student who has taken five out of two dozen courses online: an effective professor is still key to teaching material to students, whether the classroom is physical or virtual.

tete 15y ago

True, but everyone tells people to be realistic and not idealistic. I think that's one (not the only) reason for things becoming better. In today's world swimming with the crowd is what works best for most people. Not because it is better, but because everyone does and therefore don't know anything else. However continuing to live without a plan won't really get you anywhere either, so "works best" isn't completely true.

roobeelee 15y ago

"...what would happen if most of your school’s peer institutions replaced expensive tenured faculty with cheap online courses and used the savings to cut tuition by 50 percent." Tenured professors at research universities are 90% there to do research, not to teach. I don't think they're replaceable in that way.

LiggityLew 15y ago

I agree with the professor's sentiment. Technology is and will continue to change education. Non-research professors will decline in demand. But he sites a common misinterpretation of Moore's Law as his evidence. Moore's Law doesn't say computing power (or speed) will double every 1 1/2 years, but the number transistors in microprocessors will double. But because of heat concerns we've had to move to multi-core processors, and the speed has hit a plateau. People might think "I've got two cores, so I'm twice as fast", which is completely incorrect. Computing power is increasing, but there is no evidence that in 20 years it will increase 2^20. edit: actually, he's wrong on the 2^20 too. It's every 1 1/2 years, so it's more like 2^13= 8192 (let's say 10,000) times faster.

twodayslate 15y ago

I try to learn online but I find it really hard. It is very distracting. I find a real person teaching me to be much more effective.

johngunderman 15y ago

I disagree with his argument. While it is certainly quite possible that there will be a collapse in education for the liberal arts, the field of engineering will need higher education for a long time to come. Of course, many classes may be taken online, which lessens the necessity. However, I have yet to see an online lab course. Equipment is expensive, and proper training is important. I can't imagine that many people would hire an engineer who had no experience outside of online classes, regardless of whether or not they obtained a degree. Beyond the basics of education, graduate studies are something you can't just "do online" (yet). You may need a lab, need a professor to work with, and you certainly need funding for whatever you are researching. While education as we know it is bound to change, I think that the technical side of most universities is in no immediate danger.

Astrohacker 15y ago
> I have yet to see an online lab course. Equipment is expensive, and proper training is important... The students can rent the equipment and acquire training online.
- evilduck 15y ago
  This obviously doesn't work for mining engineering or nuclear engineering students.
  - Astrohacker 15y ago
    They can tour the mine or nuclear reactor, or work there. Colleges and universities add nothing to this.