4 ms·

Here we go.

• vmception 5y ago
  Not really if there isn’t a ton of unsecured leverage. Assuming that's what you mean, In 2008 Morgan Stanley was leveraged 46:1, meaning for every million dollars they had, they were speculating with $46,000,000 they didnt have. All on the price of CDOs, which nobody knew were based on the continued payments of individual mortgage holders who were barely making the payments introductory rates. Actually most were even the subprime borrowers, the system was so fragile that it imploded by a mere 7% of them not paying. Remains to be seen where the hidden leverage is this time. Its always hidden leverage, but rarely the same hidden leverage. So “this time is always different” in the sense that there’s a different reason for the crash. If Zillow is not overleveraged and is instead just burning treasury dollars, they just have a portfolio that declines 20%, which isnt a big deal if you arent leveraged.
  • scottjg 5y ago
    given interest rates are at a historic low, i would be shocked if they are using actual cash to buy these houses. presumably they are buying with mortgages?
    • vmception 5y ago
      or the corporate entity has borrowed funds at the super low interest rates for general purposes which it uses for this purpose cursory google search shows $1.1bn in bonds issued that way as well as a more recent $450bn which is actually collateralized by the properties they've already bought, already in their portfolio not even 1:1 leverage, and a far cry from the 46:1 leverage seen on the institutional side in 2008 https://aimgroup.com/2019/09/05/zillow-issues-1-1b-in-debt-as-home-flipping-arm-grows/ https://aimgroup.com/2019/09/05/zillow-issues-1-1b-in-debt-a... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/zillow-450-million-bond-deal-a-first-for-big-tech-home-flippers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/zillow-45...