5 ms·

> China and Russia actively test the same capabilities. > When the rules are not plain, whether in peacetime or war, the situation is “exponentially” more dang

> China and Russia actively test the same capabilities. > When the rules are not plain, whether in peacetime or war, the situation is “exponentially” more dangerous That's a good thing. No doubt the US would win most wars but I'd be happier if countries with no bone in the fight could protect themselves from accidental annihilation. Development of Anti-weapons to disarm and disable potential space advantages up to an including complete destruction of GPS, Research sats (yes, including Telescopes) and even the ISS- wholesale.

User23 5y ago
It's quite likely that the US would lose to a regional power like Russia or China[1] inside that power's sphere of influence. My personal hunch is that a Dune like destroy the spice gambit is Taiwan's best bet to hold off military annexation. They could rig their semiconductor fabs and the other things the CCP wants with thermite or something similar and make it known that if the mainland invades it all goes up in smoke. [1] https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/07/it-failed-miserably-after-wargaming-loss-joint-chiefs-are-overhauling-how-us-military-will-fight/184050/ https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/07/it-failed-miserabl...
- saiya-jin 5y ago
  i would be very surprised if its not already done so in some way. I would also expect all major powers having very detailed intel of where to strike to cripple it all with some staff working there. It was super important long before covid highlighted its importance for whole global economy, now even average Joe heard about 'em chips shortage.
- khuey 5y ago
  You don't need to rig it to blow. Just fire a couple cruise missiles and a ten billion dollar foundry will be unsalvageable rubble.
  - NotSammyHagar 5y ago
    I think it should be pretty easy to destroy a foundry or damage it enough so that it's not functional, even when the power goes off or they run out of water they are significantly impacted, based on us foundry impacts in the past. Another interesting question is who would be hurt more by the TSMC Taiwan operations being destroyed. Would it be the West? China? Who depends on leading technology more? It would hurt both sides. I think in any shooting war it's inevitable that it would get destroyed. I think this is the reason why there's suddenly all these new foundry groundbreaking in Arizona and other places by multiple companies but also tsmc.
- Tomte 5y ago
  Then China invades, the fabs go up in smoke, and China is suddenly in a much better position to dominate in that field, too. On a much lower level, sure, but now they are really competitive.
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    +10. Xi has shown the past couple years he has no problem hurting profit now - sometimes dramatically - for more power and control in the future.
  - User23 5y ago
    China is a very long way away from being able to replicate ASML's lithography machines. Those fabs can't be replaced without European technology and the US would almost certainly manage to get an embargo through as a response to an invasion.
    - cma 5y ago
      The US already has an embargo on ASML EUV tech to China, because the US funded it all in the late 90s with DARPA and an industry consortium (EUV LLC.).
      - mensetmanusman 5y ago
        Im so amazed DARPA’s bet worked, I had to listen to years of people lambasting that EUV is impossibly expensive to commercialize. They didn’t realize the iPhone would make the economics work.
- phreeza 5y ago
  > rig their semiconductor fabs and the other things the CCP wants with thermite You can't rig national pride with thermite. Western Germany wanted to reunite with eastern Germany not for any economic reasons but because of a sense of national unity.
  - garmaine 5y ago
    Taiwan does NOT want to “reunite” with the mainland.
    - phreeza 5y ago
      Yes of course, sorry if that came across wrong. Just wanted to give an example of one country absorbing another for non-monetary reasons.
      - garmaine 5y ago
        Sure but a key difference is that both the East and west Germany wanted reunification. China invading Taiwan would be foreign occupation.
        phreeza 5y ago
        I know this is dangerous political territory, but my understanding is that neither would object reunification on their terms, and see themselves as the 'true' China [1]. The same was the case for Germany. Things just became so bad in eastern Germany that the government there accepted unconditional reunification in order to avoid total collapse. [1] not sure how true this is these days for Taiwan, but it definitely was the case historically.
        garmaine 5y ago
        Are you Taiwanese and/or live in Taiwan? To be sure I don't mean to imply that you can't have an opinion on it otherwise, but rather the public discussion online and in media regarding Taiwan is so insanely divorced from the reality on the ground that I find most people who are not in some way connected to Taiwan have a warped view of history and public opinion regarding this issue. A state of affairs which is very much on purpose due to mainland pressure and propaganda, and the one-China agreement which forces Taiwan and its allies to be mute regarding its status and the desires of its people in public discourse. Taiwan was never meaningfully part of China. The people who historically lived in, who presently make up 80% of the population, never considered themselves Chinese nationals. They have no shared identity with mainland China. They speak a different language, they eat different food, and they are descended from people who moved to Taiwan specifically because it was a self-ruled frontier land very far removed from Ming dynasty. When the Qing conquered, they had a hell of a time governing these very independent people--there were uprisings and unrest against the government almost every other year. The Japanese didn't fare much better, nor did the foreign military junta that took over in 1949. Never during any of this history or the present day did the Taiwanese people want to conquer China, peacefully "reunite" with China (how do you "reunite" when you were never united in the first place? It'd be like Afghanistan "reuniting" with the United States), or whatever other interpretation you might take from the one-China agreement. The foreign military dictator who ruled Taiwan with an iron fist during the martial law period did want to "reunify" with China. But neither this guy nor his army were Taiwanese, and his dream doesn't reflect in any way what the Taiwanese people wanted then or now. The one single time that Taiwan moved ever so slightly towards "reunification" was in the early part of this last decade where the then-ruling KMT nationalist party entered negotiations with China to setup some free trade agreements (think: NAFTA but for China + Taiwan), and the public fear over possible reunification was so large that the legislature building was occupied in protest, the ruling party utterly lost the following elections, and had its assets frozen under a corruption investigation. The success of the Taiwan protest would inspire the Hong Kong protestors a few years later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement Taiwanese will riot in the streets if it'll prevent reunification. To be clear, the only person in Taiwan who ever truly wanted to re-conquer the mainland was the foreign dictator who did in fact used to rule China before the communists. When he died and martial law ended, China forced Taiwan into an agreement to keep his policy as the official stance or face invasion, because a continuing "civil war" fit their desired narrative better than Taiwanese independence. The Taiwanese have had their backs against the wall ever since.
- ericmay 5y ago
  I think this [1] RAND Corporation assessment is interesting. Saying just "X will lose" is a little bit too simple. You can download the PDF for free. I read the entire thing, quite interesting. [1]https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html

User23 5y ago

It's quite likely that the US would lose to a regional power like Russia or China[1] inside that power's sphere of influence. My personal hunch is that a Dune like destroy the spice gambit is Taiwan's best bet to hold off military annexation. They could rig their semiconductor fabs and the other things the CCP wants with thermite or something similar and make it known that if the mainland invades it all goes up in smoke. [1] https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/07/it-failed-miserably-after-wargaming-loss-joint-chiefs-are-overhauling-how-us-military-will-fight/184050/ https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/07/it-failed-miserabl...

saiya-jin 5y ago
i would be very surprised if its not already done so in some way. I would also expect all major powers having very detailed intel of where to strike to cripple it all with some staff working there. It was super important long before covid highlighted its importance for whole global economy, now even average Joe heard about 'em chips shortage.
khuey 5y ago
You don't need to rig it to blow. Just fire a couple cruise missiles and a ten billion dollar foundry will be unsalvageable rubble.
- NotSammyHagar 5y ago
  I think it should be pretty easy to destroy a foundry or damage it enough so that it's not functional, even when the power goes off or they run out of water they are significantly impacted, based on us foundry impacts in the past. Another interesting question is who would be hurt more by the TSMC Taiwan operations being destroyed. Would it be the West? China? Who depends on leading technology more? It would hurt both sides. I think in any shooting war it's inevitable that it would get destroyed. I think this is the reason why there's suddenly all these new foundry groundbreaking in Arizona and other places by multiple companies but also tsmc.
Tomte 5y ago
Then China invades, the fabs go up in smoke, and China is suddenly in a much better position to dominate in that field, too. On a much lower level, sure, but now they are really competitive.
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  +10. Xi has shown the past couple years he has no problem hurting profit now - sometimes dramatically - for more power and control in the future.
- User23 5y ago
  China is a very long way away from being able to replicate ASML's lithography machines. Those fabs can't be replaced without European technology and the US would almost certainly manage to get an embargo through as a response to an invasion.
  - cma 5y ago
    The US already has an embargo on ASML EUV tech to China, because the US funded it all in the late 90s with DARPA and an industry consortium (EUV LLC.).
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      Im so amazed DARPA’s bet worked, I had to listen to years of people lambasting that EUV is impossibly expensive to commercialize. They didn’t realize the iPhone would make the economics work.
phreeza 5y ago
> rig their semiconductor fabs and the other things the CCP wants with thermite You can't rig national pride with thermite. Western Germany wanted to reunite with eastern Germany not for any economic reasons but because of a sense of national unity.
- garmaine 5y ago
  Taiwan does NOT want to “reunite” with the mainland.
  - phreeza 5y ago
    Yes of course, sorry if that came across wrong. Just wanted to give an example of one country absorbing another for non-monetary reasons.
    - garmaine 5y ago
      Sure but a key difference is that both the East and west Germany wanted reunification. China invading Taiwan would be foreign occupation.
      - phreeza 5y ago
        I know this is dangerous political territory, but my understanding is that neither would object reunification on their terms, and see themselves as the 'true' China [1]. The same was the case for Germany. Things just became so bad in eastern Germany that the government there accepted unconditional reunification in order to avoid total collapse. [1] not sure how true this is these days for Taiwan, but it definitely was the case historically.
        garmaine 5y ago
        Are you Taiwanese and/or live in Taiwan? To be sure I don't mean to imply that you can't have an opinion on it otherwise, but rather the public discussion online and in media regarding Taiwan is so insanely divorced from the reality on the ground that I find most people who are not in some way connected to Taiwan have a warped view of history and public opinion regarding this issue. A state of affairs which is very much on purpose due to mainland pressure and propaganda, and the one-China agreement which forces Taiwan and its allies to be mute regarding its status and the desires of its people in public discourse. Taiwan was never meaningfully part of China. The people who historically lived in, who presently make up 80% of the population, never considered themselves Chinese nationals. They have no shared identity with mainland China. They speak a different language, they eat different food, and they are descended from people who moved to Taiwan specifically because it was a self-ruled frontier land very far removed from Ming dynasty. When the Qing conquered, they had a hell of a time governing these very independent people--there were uprisings and unrest against the government almost every other year. The Japanese didn't fare much better, nor did the foreign military junta that took over in 1949. Never during any of this history or the present day did the Taiwanese people want to conquer China, peacefully "reunite" with China (how do you "reunite" when you were never united in the first place? It'd be like Afghanistan "reuniting" with the United States), or whatever other interpretation you might take from the one-China agreement. The foreign military dictator who ruled Taiwan with an iron fist during the martial law period did want to "reunify" with China. But neither this guy nor his army were Taiwanese, and his dream doesn't reflect in any way what the Taiwanese people wanted then or now. The one single time that Taiwan moved ever so slightly towards "reunification" was in the early part of this last decade where the then-ruling KMT nationalist party entered negotiations with China to setup some free trade agreements (think: NAFTA but for China + Taiwan), and the public fear over possible reunification was so large that the legislature building was occupied in protest, the ruling party utterly lost the following elections, and had its assets frozen under a corruption investigation. The success of the Taiwan protest would inspire the Hong Kong protestors a few years later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement Taiwanese will riot in the streets if it'll prevent reunification. To be clear, the only person in Taiwan who ever truly wanted to re-conquer the mainland was the foreign dictator who did in fact used to rule China before the communists. When he died and martial law ended, China forced Taiwan into an agreement to keep his policy as the official stance or face invasion, because a continuing "civil war" fit their desired narrative better than Taiwanese independence. The Taiwanese have had their backs against the wall ever since.
ericmay 5y ago
I think this [1] RAND Corporation assessment is interesting. Saying just "X will lose" is a little bit too simple. You can download the PDF for free. I read the entire thing, quite interesting. [1]https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html