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Only recently did PV becomes the least-cost source of new electric generation.[0] And new utility-scale projects take 2-7 years to develop. For example, TX is a

by ghouse 5y ago

Only recently did PV becomes the least-cost source of new electric generation.[0] And new utility-scale projects take 2-7 years to develop. For example, TX is anticipated to add 10 GW of new solar generation in 2022.[1] As I write this (while the sun is up, noon in TX), the current demand in TX is 38 GW.[2] Source: Have been developing solar power plants since 2008. [0] The tipping point for solar is different in different regions based on many factors, but primarily the amount of annual sunlight and the cost of fuel on the margin, and regulatory policy. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/texas-track-add-record-solar-power-capacity-by-end-2022-2021-04-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/texas-track-add... [2] http://www.ercot.com/ http://www.ercot.com/

KennyBlanken 5y ago
Hijacking your comment to say that the fine print in the EIA chart cited by the person you're replying to says they're only accounting for new and utility scale generation. Utility installs dwarf residential, but if you add all non-utility generation it's quite a bit more substantial, and it was 'only' until early to mid 2010's that utility installations outpaced other installs. According to an industry group, 20GW of solar was installed last year (3.1GW residential), representing 43% of new generation capacity: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2020-year-review https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight... According to EIA, new wind generation in 2020 was a bit over 14GW. Walking back from 20GW being 43%, that means in 2020 we had 46GW installed overall, so wind was 30%. By any measure, 73% of new generation being renewable is pretty impressive. Worldwide the number of solar installs looks almost logarithmic.
- pfdietz 5y ago
  Utility installs dwarf residential in most places, but a notable exception is Australia. This probably reflects dysfunctional regulation and regulatory capture by fossil fuel interests there.

by ghouse 5y ago

KennyBlanken 5y ago

Hijacking your comment to say that the fine print in the EIA chart cited by the person you're replying to says they're only accounting for new and utility scale generation. Utility installs dwarf residential, but if you add all non-utility generation it's quite a bit more substantial, and it was 'only' until early to mid 2010's that utility installations outpaced other installs. According to an industry group, 20GW of solar was installed last year (3.1GW residential), representing 43% of new generation capacity: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2020-year-review https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight... According to EIA, new wind generation in 2020 was a bit over 14GW. Walking back from 20GW being 43%, that means in 2020 we had 46GW installed overall, so wind was 30%. By any measure, 73% of new generation being renewable is pretty impressive. Worldwide the number of solar installs looks almost logarithmic.

pfdietz 5y ago
Utility installs dwarf residential in most places, but a notable exception is Australia. This probably reflects dysfunctional regulation and regulatory capture by fossil fuel interests there.