I think it's probably not overkill, and actually I think it may need to be more complex than that (though simple methods may prove to work well enough in practi

I think it's probably not overkill, and actually I think it may need to be more complex than that (though simple methods may prove to work well enough in practice, so try them first!). There's all sorts of stuff do do with momentum, wrist angle, position back or forward on the keys, etc., so it depends on where on the keyboard the notes are and what notes are at the same time or before and after them, and so on. To look for optimal fingerings I'd probably model a hand and arm geometrically, with fingers on notes being constraints for a trajectory through hand-arm space.