5 ms·

I wrote https://github.com/jakewins/findbtc https://github.com/jakewins/findbtc to try to recover my 26BTC wallet, which lived on a disk I installed Windows ove

I wrote https://github.com/jakewins/findbtc https://github.com/jakewins/findbtc to try to recover my 26BTC wallet, which lived on a disk I installed Windows over and gave to my mother in law. I remember looking up how much it was worth, confirmed it remained worthless and opted not to include it in the backup before formatting the drive. At the same time, I doubt if I had had the wallet I'd have held past $1,000, so it's kind of mourning a loss that would have happened anyway.

mlcrypto 5y ago
That reminds me, knowing how to set aside the past and reenter a market is a skill in itself. I first heard about it in 2012 but had no knowledge of risk/reward to act. Started dabbling in 2014, lost all gambling in 2015. Didn't make any money by trading too much in 2017. But through all these experiences I was able to make sure I didn't miss out after the 2020 halving. We are still so early, I don't know anyone else personally with a proper size position. Most humans stress about having too much or too little. But true zen is being able to say you're just right and early. We are only 1 decade into a future with true digital scarcity
jcims 5y ago
I go through this very similar thought process every time I look at bitcoin. I don’t know how much I ever accumulated, it wasn’t much, but I was definitely tinkering with it very early on before it had any real value. I plugged coinbase into a checking account that I could easily dripped in 10 bucks a month since like 2012. But I didn’t do any of that, I just ignored it. Fast forward to now and I see those as missed opportunities, but the reality is there’s no way I would’ve held until now. Or I would’ve lost it. Or something else.
- stordoff 5y ago
  I still get a _little_ annoyed at myself for not keeping at least some of the ~60BTC I mined in April-June 2011 (early enough that I have Mt. Gox support emails answered by Mark Karpeles). I basically come to the conclusion that it was going to be a flash in the pan, so offloaded them as soon as they were mined. That said, I would definitely have sold them long before their current price, so I don't see it as a great loss.
  - chejazi 5y ago
    Epic - you should mint those emails.
throw0101a 5y ago
> John Templeton once said: >> The 10 most dangerous words in investing are “If you would have just put ten thousand dollars into…” > Alright, alright, Templeton didn’t actually say this. > But if he was around today, maybe he would have. * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/10/the-10-most-dangerous-words-in-investing/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/10/the-10-most-dangero... The author, Ben Carlson, then notes: > In the past 5 years, there were drawdowns of 30%, 50%, -60% and -35%. This stock was down 60% in 2020! It’s up a cool 1000%+ since then. > And the crazy thing is there were plenty of Tesla shareholders who did hold on for the entire ride. They were true believers in the face of relentless negativity about the company and its founder. > Kudos to them. I've followed AAPL, BTC, TSLA, etc, over the years (here on HN and elsewhere) but just don't have the stomach to take the risk to jump into a single asset. I'm an index kind of fellow because (a) I don't have to log into my investment account at all and see whether it's up or down (and deal with the emotional ups and downs that entails), and (b) I don't really have the time/energy to go digging into individual companies. Also, statistically individual traders are more to lose money than be up, and so I'm generally okay with "only" average market returns, as my main saving goal is retirement, and I can meet that with the average of at least 4-5%.
- omgJustTest 5y ago
  Ok, but its better than that if you are in the correct index... and index funds are based on company sizes. If you hold any SP500 index, you are a tesla holder by proxy. Don't get me wrong, index funds are good but if your cost basis is 20% and your additions are weakly scheduled (ie if you are > some % at a 1 month interval you add to the cost basis to make it 20% up)... it is pretty safe. I feel as though people who view risk on the market as not understanding that options, uncovered options and all kinds of other money-wizardry are the things people refer to as actually risky. You can lose your whole investment and there is a drop-dead date with options.
- patleeman 5y ago
  Check out Ben Carlson’s podcast Animal Spirits, it’s quite interesting. Owning individual assets doesn’t preclude you from having most of your portfolio in index funds. The trick is to buy companies you believe in and just hold it. Don’t check the price every day, just forget about it.
ren_engineer 5y ago
>I doubt I'd have held past $1000 general advice is to take a chunk of profit and let the rest ride so you don't hate yourself either way, basically regret minimization hedge.
kingcharles 5y ago
I did exactly the same thing in 2010! Reinstalled over my wallet. I had about a dozen bitcoins that I'd mined on my PC. Calculated they were essentially worthless and hit install...

mlcrypto 5y ago

That reminds me, knowing how to set aside the past and reenter a market is a skill in itself. I first heard about it in 2012 but had no knowledge of risk/reward to act. Started dabbling in 2014, lost all gambling in 2015. Didn't make any money by trading too much in 2017. But through all these experiences I was able to make sure I didn't miss out after the 2020 halving. We are still so early, I don't know anyone else personally with a proper size position. Most humans stress about having too much or too little. But true zen is being able to say you're just right and early. We are only 1 decade into a future with true digital scarcity

jcims 5y ago

I go through this very similar thought process every time I look at bitcoin. I don’t know how much I ever accumulated, it wasn’t much, but I was definitely tinkering with it very early on before it had any real value. I plugged coinbase into a checking account that I could easily dripped in 10 bucks a month since like 2012. But I didn’t do any of that, I just ignored it. Fast forward to now and I see those as missed opportunities, but the reality is there’s no way I would’ve held until now. Or I would’ve lost it. Or something else.

stordoff 5y ago
I still get a _little_ annoyed at myself for not keeping at least some of the ~60BTC I mined in April-June 2011 (early enough that I have Mt. Gox support emails answered by Mark Karpeles). I basically come to the conclusion that it was going to be a flash in the pan, so offloaded them as soon as they were mined. That said, I would definitely have sold them long before their current price, so I don't see it as a great loss.
- chejazi 5y ago
  Epic - you should mint those emails.

throw0101a 5y ago

> John Templeton once said: >> The 10 most dangerous words in investing are “If you would have just put ten thousand dollars into…” > Alright, alright, Templeton didn’t actually say this. > But if he was around today, maybe he would have. * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/10/the-10-most-dangerous-words-in-investing/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/10/the-10-most-dangero... The author, Ben Carlson, then notes: > In the past 5 years, there were drawdowns of 30%, 50%, -60% and -35%. This stock was down 60% in 2020! It’s up a cool 1000%+ since then. > And the crazy thing is there were plenty of Tesla shareholders who did hold on for the entire ride. They were true believers in the face of relentless negativity about the company and its founder. > Kudos to them. I've followed AAPL, BTC, TSLA, etc, over the years (here on HN and elsewhere) but just don't have the stomach to take the risk to jump into a single asset. I'm an index kind of fellow because (a) I don't have to log into my investment account at all and see whether it's up or down (and deal with the emotional ups and downs that entails), and (b) I don't really have the time/energy to go digging into individual companies. Also, statistically individual traders are more to lose money than be up, and so I'm generally okay with "only" average market returns, as my main saving goal is retirement, and I can meet that with the average of at least 4-5%.

omgJustTest 5y ago
Ok, but its better than that if you are in the correct index... and index funds are based on company sizes. If you hold any SP500 index, you are a tesla holder by proxy. Don't get me wrong, index funds are good but if your cost basis is 20% and your additions are weakly scheduled (ie if you are > some % at a 1 month interval you add to the cost basis to make it 20% up)... it is pretty safe. I feel as though people who view risk on the market as not understanding that options, uncovered options and all kinds of other money-wizardry are the things people refer to as actually risky. You can lose your whole investment and there is a drop-dead date with options.
patleeman 5y ago
Check out Ben Carlson’s podcast Animal Spirits, it’s quite interesting. Owning individual assets doesn’t preclude you from having most of your portfolio in index funds. The trick is to buy companies you believe in and just hold it. Don’t check the price every day, just forget about it.

ren_engineer 5y ago

>I doubt I'd have held past $1000 general advice is to take a chunk of profit and let the rest ride so you don't hate yourself either way, basically regret minimization hedge.

kingcharles 5y ago

I did exactly the same thing in 2010! Reinstalled over my wallet. I had about a dozen bitcoins that I'd mined on my PC. Calculated they were essentially worthless and hit install...