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The technology aspect is where this analogy breaks down. The dominant costs in housing are land values, construction costs, which are dominated by labour, and
by Tiktaalik 5y ago
The technology aspect is where this analogy breaks down.
The dominant costs in housing are land values, construction costs, which are dominated by labour, and highly regulated (for good reason).
There is little room here for innovations that would cut costs.
There is presumably some inefficiencies and red tape in the building code, but so much of it is safety oriented, efficiency gains are probably limited.
The obvious answer of course lies in building denser, though larger, denser buildings are more complex and costly to build.
This is not to say that people aren't trying. People have been experimenting with prefab homes and such for decades, but it hasn't become any sort of game changer.
If anything the costs of construction have been going dizzyingly upward along with the underlying land values.
In any other industry someone would invent a new widget that makes processes faster and cheaper etc, but it's hard to see how someone makes home development cheaper through technological innovation.
- closeparen 5y agoIt's not a safety decision to reserve the overwhelming majority of land near population centers for large-lot single family detached housing. Deploying the 100-year-old technologies of the apartment building and the subway, where it is technologically and economically feasible to do so, would have this over with in a heartbeat.
- Tiktaalik 5y agoAbsolutely. We've had the tools in our hands since the 19th century. Technological innovation isn't what is required here, it's political will.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoA century from now we might be metaphorically drowning in excess energy (e.g. instances of negative energy costs) due for example to the TW Solar installs being planned. In such a scenario, there are wild things you could imagine from a materials and construction side that could plummet building costs. Additionally, if 2D agriculture is ever disrupted, we would recover a lot of land (ever driven across me NE?). Don’t forget, we can fit 2x the global population in a city the size of Texas with a typical city population density.
- Tiktaalik 5y agoThere def is some materials science innovation going on. I think the most exciting thing is Mass Timber buildings which have enabled the development of taller wood buildings. In British Columbia the new building code will enable Mass Timber buildings up to 12 stories. I'm not sure if Mass Timber will enable cheaper, faster (and thus hopefully more affordable) development, but I certainly do know that it will emit lower CO2 than concrete and steel, and so it's a positive change there in the context of pushing back against climate change.
- itake 5y agoI think websites like Zillow and Redfin play into housing prices because they provide much more transparency to the RE market. Previously, you had to physically go in to a RE office and look at a binder of homes that are for sale. It was much more difficult to find comps and price houses correctly, resulting in a lot of opportunity to make a living. Then pre-zillow / post-internet, home buyers still had to talk to a RE agent to get emailed houses. Now anyone can sign-up, peruse houses and with 1 click, schedule a tour immediately.