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There's a lot to unpack in your comments. First off, I don't think a typical investment thesis is: this thing will be less affordable in the future. People inv
by anonu 5y ago
There's a lot to unpack in your comments.
First off, I don't think a typical investment thesis is: this thing will be less affordable in the future. People invest for many other reasons other than simply capital appreciation. With housing specifically, it might be cheaper for you to buy vs rent.
> country decides to stop making policy
So, yes... US policies towards housing are all centered around the notion of taking out a massive loan for a home. You get paid to do it in some ways, through interest deductions for example. And yes, this policy will never change and this is probably the main reason you need to buy a house with a mortgage if youre in the US.
However, as a counter-example I know handful of countries where mortgages are not easy to get and not a traditional way to finance a home. Yet, home prices in these regions are also skyrocketing. So cheap leverage alone is not a necessary factor for home price appreciation.
Finally: Food and transport can be "replenished" - land cannot. So basic supply and demand concepts would say that land prices will increase, and by proxy so will housing.
- gonehome 5y agoIf land was treated as the scarce asset it would fix a lot of issues. Land taxed appropriately would incentivize higher density housing in order for the economics to work. We’re in a weird incentive trap (in the Bay Area anyway) where owners protected by prop13 have massive wealth and are incentivized to restrict supply. New owners that manage to over pay for a home are further incentivized to restrict supply to keep prices high so they’re not underwater. This is a bad feedback loop that creates real property scarcity. It’s also arguably a problem of regulation constraining the market’s ability to meet demand appropriately.