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The Chinese government could dispell any doubt as to whether it came from the Wuhan lab by allowing unlimited access to an independent forensic team. Any other

The Chinese government could dispell any doubt as to whether it came from the Wuhan lab by allowing unlimited access to an independent forensic team. Any other country would allow this, or at the very least pretend to do it. It's only fair therefore to assume they have something to hide there. The only exculpatory hypothesis is that their political system is so authoritarian that they can't even allow the appearance of an independent commission, even if they have nothing to hide wrt this virus. And it's damning in itself.

bell-cot 5y ago
Your "Any other country would allow..." faith in the honesty, transparency, etc. of non-Chinese governments is touching. But not realistic. Certainly not for large, powerful countries - with both the pride and means to withstand some international arm-twisting. And if the Chinese government did allow such an investigation, and it found China innocent? How many of those currently inclined to hate or blame China would believe it? Not getting into such a "heads we lose, tails they win" mess seems perfectly rational.
- himinlomax 5y ago
  I also said "or at least would pretend to." But in any case, yes, there are plenty of institutions in the West that would make such a cover up near impossible. The exception might be if the events happened within a military institution -- and even then, in the US or Europe, there would be calls for inquiries. Of course if you're part of the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" or "the CIA killed JFK" crowds, that won't convince you of anything. Reasonable people will however recognize that covering up such events under such scrutiny is a risky move, and as such unlikely to stand for long. The calls for more investigation would never stop, just consider how riled up antivaxxers are for no good reason; do you really think there would npt be a much larger number of citizens up in arms and furious if there was any hint of such a cover up in their country?
  - bell-cot 5y ago
    > "or at least would pretend to." True, and I was obnoxiously snarky. But for something so high-profile and emotionally charged, the loss of face, loss of control, and other big downsides (for those in power) kick in as soon as a nation even pretends to allow a serious international investigation. I will not argue that a cover-up in most Western countries would have nearly the prospects of success that one would in China (also not asserting that China is doing any meaningful cover-up on this). I will argue that those in power would (per Churchill) probably do the right thing only after exhausting every possible alternative. Note that most Western countries have had their citizens "up in arms and furious" for a good while now, over the endless screw-ups handling COVID. Sadly, that has neither ejected many politicians from office, nor caused a mass outbreak of government honesty or competence. (Personal aside on the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" crowd - both of my grandfathers were country blacksmiths. That profession is only possible because iron and steel get soft enough to work with simple hand tools at temperatures far, far below their melting points.) [Edit - add the obvious missing carriage return after quoting parent.]
mrkramer 5y ago
I think it's both: they are so authoritarian and proud they do not allow anyone to enter their national research center and lab and they have a lab leak to hide.
drran 5y ago
It will not clear doubts, because «they destroyed the evidence!!!11». BTW, there are few other labs, which are candidates for forensic analysis: Vector BSL4 lab in Novosibirsk, RF, which had major incident right before epidemic, and maybe other labs should be checked too, because China and US have different strains of SARS CoV2 with common ancestor outside of both countries.
- himinlomax 5y ago
  It will not clear doubts with everyone, cf jet fuel melting steel beams and the moon landing. I was implicitly talking about reasonable and rational people.
shapefrog 5y ago
> Any other country would allow this The US would? Really? How about a less controversial 'check', maybe let someone pop into fort knox and check if what they say is there is really there.
- himinlomax 5y ago
  Look at the heat Fauci has been getting from a part of population. Do you really think it would have been tamer had a US lab been in the same neighborhood as the epicenter of the outbreak? Maybe if it was a top secret military, and just maybe. China is getting away with this even though the lab is not top secret.
  - shapefrog 5y ago
    You mean the lab in the same neighborhood as the epicenter of the outbreak where US gain of function research moved to a few years ago. Where the US had been investing a lot of money? And its China that is getting away with it right?
juanani 5y ago
damn this place started wearing tinfoil hats? i didnt get mine
masswerk 5y ago
On the other hand, Western researches and intelligence have to corroborate how the hypothesis of an exclusive origin in or near Wuhan around November 2019 works out with the finding of Covid-19 in blood samples from mid-September 2019 in Italy (according to Reuters reporting). [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27W1J2 https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-tim... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-china-idUKKBN27Z2QQ https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-... [3] there has been dispute about this, as well: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dispute-over-italian-coronavirus-study-shows-challenges-probing-origins-2021-07-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dispute-over-italian-co...
- himinlomax 5y ago
  It's rather simple to explain with a banal hypothesis: that the epidemic began just slightly earlier than initially thought. It just failed to take hold, maybe by pure chance, or because the virus didn't infect a superspreader, or because the initial strains had not yet acquired a tiny mutation that would have made them infectious enough to propagate further.
  - masswerk 5y ago
    But the idea is essentially that of a direct route (vicinity in space and time with any intermediaries eliminated), and at least this part seems to be seriously endangered. You can't simply ignore this. Either invalidate that data point on the basis of thorough research or accept that the null-hypothesis has been verified.
    - himinlomax 5y ago
      It's just a question of probabilities. There will be more people infected near the origin of the disease before a pandemic is detected. Some of them will travel and infects others, starting new foyers, but they will all be smaller than the starting location. The pandemic is therefore more likely to be detected at the starting point, because more people will have been affected right there.
cm2187 5y ago
What is the point? The chinese authorities are untrustworthy and they know it. I am not particularly conspiracist, but if the chinese were to open the Wuhan lab for international inspection, even my reaction would be that it will prove nothing because surely they will have destroyed any incriminating samples and records, and briefed (threatened) the staff. So if they don’t get any benefit from coming out clean, why would they?

bell-cot 5y ago

Your "Any other country would allow..." faith in the honesty, transparency, etc. of non-Chinese governments is touching. But not realistic. Certainly not for large, powerful countries - with both the pride and means to withstand some international arm-twisting. And if the Chinese government did allow such an investigation, and it found China innocent? How many of those currently inclined to hate or blame China would believe it? Not getting into such a "heads we lose, tails they win" mess seems perfectly rational.

himinlomax 5y ago
I also said "or at least would pretend to." But in any case, yes, there are plenty of institutions in the West that would make such a cover up near impossible. The exception might be if the events happened within a military institution -- and even then, in the US or Europe, there would be calls for inquiries. Of course if you're part of the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" or "the CIA killed JFK" crowds, that won't convince you of anything. Reasonable people will however recognize that covering up such events under such scrutiny is a risky move, and as such unlikely to stand for long. The calls for more investigation would never stop, just consider how riled up antivaxxers are for no good reason; do you really think there would npt be a much larger number of citizens up in arms and furious if there was any hint of such a cover up in their country?
- bell-cot 5y ago
  > "or at least would pretend to." True, and I was obnoxiously snarky. But for something so high-profile and emotionally charged, the loss of face, loss of control, and other big downsides (for those in power) kick in as soon as a nation even pretends to allow a serious international investigation. I will not argue that a cover-up in most Western countries would have nearly the prospects of success that one would in China (also not asserting that China is doing any meaningful cover-up on this). I will argue that those in power would (per Churchill) probably do the right thing only after exhausting every possible alternative. Note that most Western countries have had their citizens "up in arms and furious" for a good while now, over the endless screw-ups handling COVID. Sadly, that has neither ejected many politicians from office, nor caused a mass outbreak of government honesty or competence. (Personal aside on the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" crowd - both of my grandfathers were country blacksmiths. That profession is only possible because iron and steel get soft enough to work with simple hand tools at temperatures far, far below their melting points.) [Edit - add the obvious missing carriage return after quoting parent.]

mrkramer 5y ago

I think it's both: they are so authoritarian and proud they do not allow anyone to enter their national research center and lab and they have a lab leak to hide.

drran 5y ago

It will not clear doubts, because «they destroyed the evidence!!!11». BTW, there are few other labs, which are candidates for forensic analysis: Vector BSL4 lab in Novosibirsk, RF, which had major incident right before epidemic, and maybe other labs should be checked too, because China and US have different strains of SARS CoV2 with common ancestor outside of both countries.

himinlomax 5y ago
It will not clear doubts with everyone, cf jet fuel melting steel beams and the moon landing. I was implicitly talking about reasonable and rational people.

shapefrog 5y ago

> Any other country would allow this The US would? Really? How about a less controversial 'check', maybe let someone pop into fort knox and check if what they say is there is really there.

himinlomax 5y ago
Look at the heat Fauci has been getting from a part of population. Do you really think it would have been tamer had a US lab been in the same neighborhood as the epicenter of the outbreak? Maybe if it was a top secret military, and just maybe. China is getting away with this even though the lab is not top secret.
- shapefrog 5y ago
  You mean the lab in the same neighborhood as the epicenter of the outbreak where US gain of function research moved to a few years ago. Where the US had been investing a lot of money? And its China that is getting away with it right?

juanani 5y ago

damn this place started wearing tinfoil hats? i didnt get mine

masswerk 5y ago

On the other hand, Western researches and intelligence have to corroborate how the hypothesis of an exclusive origin in or near Wuhan around November 2019 works out with the finding of Covid-19 in blood samples from mid-September 2019 in Italy (according to Reuters reporting). [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27W1J2 https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-tim... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-china-idUKKBN27Z2QQ https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-... [3] there has been dispute about this, as well: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dispute-over-italian-coronavirus-study-shows-challenges-probing-origins-2021-07-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dispute-over-italian-co...

himinlomax 5y ago
It's rather simple to explain with a banal hypothesis: that the epidemic began just slightly earlier than initially thought. It just failed to take hold, maybe by pure chance, or because the virus didn't infect a superspreader, or because the initial strains had not yet acquired a tiny mutation that would have made them infectious enough to propagate further.
- masswerk 5y ago
  But the idea is essentially that of a direct route (vicinity in space and time with any intermediaries eliminated), and at least this part seems to be seriously endangered. You can't simply ignore this. Either invalidate that data point on the basis of thorough research or accept that the null-hypothesis has been verified.
  - himinlomax 5y ago
    It's just a question of probabilities. There will be more people infected near the origin of the disease before a pandemic is detected. Some of them will travel and infects others, starting new foyers, but they will all be smaller than the starting location. The pandemic is therefore more likely to be detected at the starting point, because more people will have been affected right there.

cm2187 5y ago

What is the point? The chinese authorities are untrustworthy and they know it. I am not particularly conspiracist, but if the chinese were to open the Wuhan lab for international inspection, even my reaction would be that it will prove nothing because surely they will have destroyed any incriminating samples and records, and briefed (threatened) the staff. So if they don’t get any benefit from coming out clean, why would they?