15 ms·

U.S. spy agencies say origins of Covid-19 may never be known

31 points by spzx 5y ago

redwood 5y ago
What makes it obviously a lab leak is China's clearly guilty actions and non-cooperation after the fact.
Proven 5y ago
The origin is known, but the proof may never be available to those outside of the CCP leadership.
spzx 5y ago
Updated Assessment on COVID-19 Origins: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declass...
- simonh 5y ago
  Short version - until we find a candidate progenitor virus in an animal population, which enables us to work out a likely route of transmission to humans, we don't have enough information to know.
  - garmaine 5y ago
    Which we won’t it it was bred in a lab. Hence, we won’t know.
    - simonh 5y ago
      Even if it was bred in a lab, it must have been bred from something. That version of the virus can't be massively different from Cov-19.
      - diamondo25 5y ago
        So you could say that this virus is kind of alien[1]? [1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/alien https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/alien
      - guilhas 5y ago
        In the Fauci emails, a reply from a scientist, in the beginning of the pandemic, states a "recipe" on how the virus could have been changed in a lab
        scotty79 5y ago
        They probably meant RNA code of the virus. Since if you know it you can produce it in a lab and introduce it into cells and they will manufacture functional copies of the virus. It's not a recipe to create virus in a lab. It's a recipe to manufacture copies of the virus in a lab.
        drran 5y ago
        SARS CoV grows on VERO substrate, so it's relatively easy to make mutations of the virus. Here is example for IBV CoV: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2898227/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2898227/
      - BobbyJo 5y ago
        > That version of the virus can't be massively different from Cov-19. Yes it can. Labs specifically study, and propagate, mutations. A lab can do in years what might take nature decades. If it did originate from a lab, we very likely would never find a close enough progenitor in nature to know where things started (what strain the lab started with).
        simonh 5y ago
        We can trace mutation histories of viruses very extensively, the tools and techniques for this are now pretty sophisticated, so that's not necessarily an insurmountable obstacle. There is a probabilistic aspect to this though. If we happen to find the exact wild virus population Cov-19 originated from (whether it then mutated naturally or in a lab) then I think we'll nail it. On the other hand if we just find an adjacent population that diverged from the actual Cov-19 source some time ago it could be harder to pin down the route.
  - kjaftaedi 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma
    - lima 5y ago
      Why? The report explains the position quite well - lacking other data, finding a progenitor virus is the most likely to confirm a natural origin.
      - kjaftaedi 5y ago
        Such a premise begins with the assumption the origin is natural. Just because China refuses to cooperate (as stated by the article), does not mean that trying to find a natural cause is the only way to resolve the issue. It's a bit misleading as well as the vast majority of the agencies mentioned in the article do not believe in a natural origin. >The ODNI report said four U.S. spy agencies and a multi-agency body have "low confidence" that COVID-19 originated with an infected animal or a related virus.
        simonh 5y ago
        >Such a premise begins with the assumption the origin is natural. Unless the virus was literally constructed using base chemicals from the ground up entirely artificially, something that as far as we know has never been done and the technology for which doesn't yet plausibly exist, the virus must have a natural progenitor from which it either evolved, was bred or was engineered. That does not exclude the possibility that the virus was engineered from a progenitor virus in a lab and is "artificial" in that sense. So yes you are technically correct (which of course is the best correct), but could you be more clear what you mean by natural, and what alternatives you think are being excluded?
        kjaftaedi 5y ago
        >could you be more clear what you mean by natural, and what alternatives you think are being excluded Natural = produced by nature We know for a fact that coronaviruses were being engineered in unsafe BSL2 lab conditions literally blocks away from the epicenter of the outbreak. With China's refusal to cooperate, they are asking you to believe that this is all merely coincidence. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-function-risky-bat-virus-engineering-links-america-to-wuhan/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-...
  - roenxi 5y ago
    Although I think, from skimming the report, there is probably enough information to say that this (1) wasn't intentional and (2) is possibly a lab leak. That is enough to say that it will probably happen again in our lifetime from an actual lab leak. We have the technology, the world is large, there are a lot of foolish researchers in it. We need to be more prepared to curtail or cease international travel.
    - ashwagary 5y ago
      If intentional, would China shoot itself in the foot by releasing a deadly virus in its own major cities and infect potentially millions/billions? Or would the US and its allies release a virus it knowingly funded (for plausible deniability) in a state it constantly calls its 'greatest adversary & threat' during the 2019 war games? One of these seems more likely than the other to an objective observer since this isn't the first time the US and its allies have engaged in chemical & bio-warfare against the Chinese. The foreign aircraft carriers and war ships surrounding the Chinese coast are perhaps yet another clue...
    - lborsato 5y ago
      It has already happened multiple times previously in our lifetime: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/
  - scotty79 5y ago
    Since the next best species that the virus can spread among (apart form humans) is civets then we should probably start huge research on viruses carried by them and we'll probably find the progenitor and most likely learn a lot of interesting things along the way.
- redis_mlc 5y ago
  I read the report. It's missing around half the known facts (Wuhan hospitals full around Sept. 2019, Wuhan already on lockdown during Military Games, covid-19 genome had to be leaked from Australia, deleted databases, etc.)
bob229 5y ago
In someways it doesn’t matter. We know the Chinese state is responsible either by design nor by negligence and we know that they covered it up. China truly is the evil empire
sschueller 5y ago
It doesn't really matter. Either way we need an international oversight for such labs like we have for nuclear weapons. Second we need to focus on how we will prevent the next pandemic irregardless if it comes from a lab or animal to human transmission. Most important is to contain it and provide the tools for the global community to respond such as gen sequencing and money for the affected area. If a state would receive funds and there was a very clear strategy they would be less likely to hide such an outbreak. The biggest issue I see it how do we get something like this setup without there being issues like we see with the WHO. The US managed to turn any trust this organization had into the trash (although the US had the biggest influence in it) letting the countries that always had doubts about it get their confirmation.
- disambiguation 5y ago
  > It doesn't really matter. Uhh, it matters a lot. an important part of effective oversight programs is accountability .. which requires knowing if the virus was fucking man-made. Also the WHO lost any credibility it still had when it started bending over for China.
  - oliwarner 5y ago
    It doesn't matter. The international rules you want to set against (eg) gain-of-function research, or rules on moving research abroad to bypass local ethics requirements can be created without knowing what caused SARS-CoV-2. I don't see any benefit to society trying to punish people for it. It's a colossal waste of focus. Just stop it happening next time.
    - disambiguation 5y ago
      An important measure of the efficacy of rules is how much people follow / break the rules. What do you propose we do if we catch someone not following the rules?
      - oliwarner 5y ago
guilhas 5y ago
Because they don't want to know. They were all hyped up that was China's fault, and mutations like this were not natural. But with all the US links to the Wuhan lab coming to light, it is best not to open that can of worms
- peakaboo 5y ago
  I'm sad that so few people understand this virus was created for profit, population control and society transformation reasons. How can we as a species ever have a chance to get a nicer world when the masses are completely unable to put 2 and 2 together? It's just impossible.
  - _kbh_ 5y ago
    There's literally zero credible evidence for this is why 'so few people understand' it.
- nuerow 5y ago
  > They were all hyped up that was China's fault If I recall correctly, China's fault refers to how they failed to contain the epidemic due to their initial approach to the problem, which consisted of censoring and gaslighting reports from doctors in the field and intentionally failing to act on it before it spread. Also, it didn't helped the fact that the CCP's propaganda machine started pushing propaganda pinning the blame of the COVID-19 outbreak on Italy and Spain when their failure to contain the Wuhan epidemic turned to a pandemic.
  - nerdponx 5y ago
    In the US, "it's China's fault" was also a great line for then-president Trump, who got some of his early political points (and notoriety) by being openly anti-China, and whose administration blatantly failed to manage the virus and its arrival in the US. So it played into his existing worldview and helped deflect responsibility away from his own administration for its failure.
  - cm2187 5y ago
himinlomax 5y ago
The Chinese government could dispell any doubt as to whether it came from the Wuhan lab by allowing unlimited access to an independent forensic team. Any other country would allow this, or at the very least pretend to do it. It's only fair therefore to assume they have something to hide there. The only exculpatory hypothesis is that their political system is so authoritarian that they can't even allow the appearance of an independent commission, even if they have nothing to hide wrt this virus. And it's damning in itself.
- bell-cot 5y ago
  Your "Any other country would allow..." faith in the honesty, transparency, etc. of non-Chinese governments is touching. But not realistic. Certainly not for large, powerful countries - with both the pride and means to withstand some international arm-twisting. And if the Chinese government did allow such an investigation, and it found China innocent? How many of those currently inclined to hate or blame China would believe it? Not getting into such a "heads we lose, tails they win" mess seems perfectly rational.
  - himinlomax 5y ago
    I also said "or at least would pretend to." But in any case, yes, there are plenty of institutions in the West that would make such a cover up near impossible. The exception might be if the events happened within a military institution -- and even then, in the US or Europe, there would be calls for inquiries. Of course if you're part of the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" or "the CIA killed JFK" crowds, that won't convince you of anything. Reasonable people will however recognize that covering up such events under such scrutiny is a risky move, and as such unlikely to stand for long. The calls for more investigation would never stop, just consider how riled up antivaxxers are for no good reason; do you really think there would npt be a much larger number of citizens up in arms and furious if there was any hint of such a cover up in their country?
    - bell-cot 5y ago
      > "or at least would pretend to." True, and I was obnoxiously snarky. But for something so high-profile and emotionally charged, the loss of face, loss of control, and other big downsides (for those in power) kick in as soon as a nation even pretends to allow a serious international investigation. I will not argue that a cover-up in most Western countries would have nearly the prospects of success that one would in China (also not asserting that China is doing any meaningful cover-up on this). I will argue that those in power would (per Churchill) probably do the right thing only after exhausting every possible alternative. Note that most Western countries have had their citizens "up in arms and furious" for a good while now, over the endless screw-ups handling COVID. Sadly, that has neither ejected many politicians from office, nor caused a mass outbreak of government honesty or competence. (Personal aside on the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" crowd - both of my grandfathers were country blacksmiths. That profession is only possible because iron and steel get soft enough to work with simple hand tools at temperatures far, far below their melting points.) [Edit - add the obvious missing carriage return after quoting parent.]
mrkramer 5y ago
Everything will be known sooner or later. Since when truth is dangerous?
newsclues 5y ago
If it spread via military games in 2019, would the US Intel community be honest about it? https://financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-canadian-forces-have-right-to-know-if-they-got-covid-at-the-2019-military-world-games-in-wuhan https://financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-canadi...
shrubble 5y ago
"I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole… we had entire training courses." -- former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false" -- CIA director William Colby Something tells me that a different source of information should be sought...

31 points by spzx 5y ago

redwood 5y ago

What makes it obviously a lab leak is China's clearly guilty actions and non-cooperation after the fact.

Proven 5y ago

The origin is known, but the proof may never be available to those outside of the CCP leadership.

spzx 5y ago

Updated Assessment on COVID-19 Origins: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declass...

simonh 5y ago
Short version - until we find a candidate progenitor virus in an animal population, which enables us to work out a likely route of transmission to humans, we don't have enough information to know.
- garmaine 5y ago
  Which we won’t it it was bred in a lab. Hence, we won’t know.
  - simonh 5y ago
    Even if it was bred in a lab, it must have been bred from something. That version of the virus can't be massively different from Cov-19.
    - diamondo25 5y ago
      So you could say that this virus is kind of alien[1]? [1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/alien https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/alien
    - guilhas 5y ago
      In the Fauci emails, a reply from a scientist, in the beginning of the pandemic, states a "recipe" on how the virus could have been changed in a lab
      - scotty79 5y ago
        They probably meant RNA code of the virus. Since if you know it you can produce it in a lab and introduce it into cells and they will manufacture functional copies of the virus. It's not a recipe to create virus in a lab. It's a recipe to manufacture copies of the virus in a lab.
        drran 5y ago
        SARS CoV grows on VERO substrate, so it's relatively easy to make mutations of the virus. Here is example for IBV CoV: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2898227/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2898227/
    - BobbyJo 5y ago
      > That version of the virus can't be massively different from Cov-19. Yes it can. Labs specifically study, and propagate, mutations. A lab can do in years what might take nature decades. If it did originate from a lab, we very likely would never find a close enough progenitor in nature to know where things started (what strain the lab started with).
      - simonh 5y ago
        We can trace mutation histories of viruses very extensively, the tools and techniques for this are now pretty sophisticated, so that's not necessarily an insurmountable obstacle. There is a probabilistic aspect to this though. If we happen to find the exact wild virus population Cov-19 originated from (whether it then mutated naturally or in a lab) then I think we'll nail it. On the other hand if we just find an adjacent population that diverged from the actual Cov-19 source some time ago it could be harder to pin down the route.
- kjaftaedi 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma
  - lima 5y ago
    Why? The report explains the position quite well - lacking other data, finding a progenitor virus is the most likely to confirm a natural origin.
    - kjaftaedi 5y ago
      Such a premise begins with the assumption the origin is natural. Just because China refuses to cooperate (as stated by the article), does not mean that trying to find a natural cause is the only way to resolve the issue. It's a bit misleading as well as the vast majority of the agencies mentioned in the article do not believe in a natural origin. >The ODNI report said four U.S. spy agencies and a multi-agency body have "low confidence" that COVID-19 originated with an infected animal or a related virus.
      - simonh 5y ago
        >Such a premise begins with the assumption the origin is natural. Unless the virus was literally constructed using base chemicals from the ground up entirely artificially, something that as far as we know has never been done and the technology for which doesn't yet plausibly exist, the virus must have a natural progenitor from which it either evolved, was bred or was engineered. That does not exclude the possibility that the virus was engineered from a progenitor virus in a lab and is "artificial" in that sense. So yes you are technically correct (which of course is the best correct), but could you be more clear what you mean by natural, and what alternatives you think are being excluded?
        kjaftaedi 5y ago
        >could you be more clear what you mean by natural, and what alternatives you think are being excluded Natural = produced by nature We know for a fact that coronaviruses were being engineered in unsafe BSL2 lab conditions literally blocks away from the epicenter of the outbreak. With China's refusal to cooperate, they are asking you to believe that this is all merely coincidence. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-function-risky-bat-virus-engineering-links-america-to-wuhan/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-...
- roenxi 5y ago
  Although I think, from skimming the report, there is probably enough information to say that this (1) wasn't intentional and (2) is possibly a lab leak. That is enough to say that it will probably happen again in our lifetime from an actual lab leak. We have the technology, the world is large, there are a lot of foolish researchers in it. We need to be more prepared to curtail or cease international travel.
  - ashwagary 5y ago
    If intentional, would China shoot itself in the foot by releasing a deadly virus in its own major cities and infect potentially millions/billions? Or would the US and its allies release a virus it knowingly funded (for plausible deniability) in a state it constantly calls its 'greatest adversary & threat' during the 2019 war games? One of these seems more likely than the other to an objective observer since this isn't the first time the US and its allies have engaged in chemical & bio-warfare against the Chinese. The foreign aircraft carriers and war ships surrounding the Chinese coast are perhaps yet another clue...
  - lborsato 5y ago
    It has already happened multiple times previously in our lifetime: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/
- scotty79 5y ago
  Since the next best species that the virus can spread among (apart form humans) is civets then we should probably start huge research on viruses carried by them and we'll probably find the progenitor and most likely learn a lot of interesting things along the way.
redis_mlc 5y ago
I read the report. It's missing around half the known facts (Wuhan hospitals full around Sept. 2019, Wuhan already on lockdown during Military Games, covid-19 genome had to be leaked from Australia, deleted databases, etc.)

bob229 5y ago

In someways it doesn’t matter. We know the Chinese state is responsible either by design nor by negligence and we know that they covered it up. China truly is the evil empire

sschueller 5y ago

It doesn't really matter. Either way we need an international oversight for such labs like we have for nuclear weapons. Second we need to focus on how we will prevent the next pandemic irregardless if it comes from a lab or animal to human transmission. Most important is to contain it and provide the tools for the global community to respond such as gen sequencing and money for the affected area. If a state would receive funds and there was a very clear strategy they would be less likely to hide such an outbreak. The biggest issue I see it how do we get something like this setup without there being issues like we see with the WHO. The US managed to turn any trust this organization had into the trash (although the US had the biggest influence in it) letting the countries that always had doubts about it get their confirmation.

disambiguation 5y ago
> It doesn't really matter. Uhh, it matters a lot. an important part of effective oversight programs is accountability .. which requires knowing if the virus was fucking man-made. Also the WHO lost any credibility it still had when it started bending over for China.
- oliwarner 5y ago
  It doesn't matter. The international rules you want to set against (eg) gain-of-function research, or rules on moving research abroad to bypass local ethics requirements can be created without knowing what caused SARS-CoV-2. I don't see any benefit to society trying to punish people for it. It's a colossal waste of focus. Just stop it happening next time.
  - disambiguation 5y ago
    An important measure of the efficacy of rules is how much people follow / break the rules. What do you propose we do if we catch someone not following the rules?
    - oliwarner 5y ago

guilhas 5y ago

Because they don't want to know. They were all hyped up that was China's fault, and mutations like this were not natural. But with all the US links to the Wuhan lab coming to light, it is best not to open that can of worms

peakaboo 5y ago
I'm sad that so few people understand this virus was created for profit, population control and society transformation reasons. How can we as a species ever have a chance to get a nicer world when the masses are completely unable to put 2 and 2 together? It's just impossible.
- _kbh_ 5y ago
  There's literally zero credible evidence for this is why 'so few people understand' it.
nuerow 5y ago
> They were all hyped up that was China's fault If I recall correctly, China's fault refers to how they failed to contain the epidemic due to their initial approach to the problem, which consisted of censoring and gaslighting reports from doctors in the field and intentionally failing to act on it before it spread. Also, it didn't helped the fact that the CCP's propaganda machine started pushing propaganda pinning the blame of the COVID-19 outbreak on Italy and Spain when their failure to contain the Wuhan epidemic turned to a pandemic.
- nerdponx 5y ago
  In the US, "it's China's fault" was also a great line for then-president Trump, who got some of his early political points (and notoriety) by being openly anti-China, and whose administration blatantly failed to manage the virus and its arrival in the US. So it played into his existing worldview and helped deflect responsibility away from his own administration for its failure.
- cm2187 5y ago

himinlomax 5y ago

The Chinese government could dispell any doubt as to whether it came from the Wuhan lab by allowing unlimited access to an independent forensic team. Any other country would allow this, or at the very least pretend to do it. It's only fair therefore to assume they have something to hide there. The only exculpatory hypothesis is that their political system is so authoritarian that they can't even allow the appearance of an independent commission, even if they have nothing to hide wrt this virus. And it's damning in itself.

bell-cot 5y ago
Your "Any other country would allow..." faith in the honesty, transparency, etc. of non-Chinese governments is touching. But not realistic. Certainly not for large, powerful countries - with both the pride and means to withstand some international arm-twisting. And if the Chinese government did allow such an investigation, and it found China innocent? How many of those currently inclined to hate or blame China would believe it? Not getting into such a "heads we lose, tails they win" mess seems perfectly rational.
- himinlomax 5y ago
  I also said "or at least would pretend to." But in any case, yes, there are plenty of institutions in the West that would make such a cover up near impossible. The exception might be if the events happened within a military institution -- and even then, in the US or Europe, there would be calls for inquiries. Of course if you're part of the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" or "the CIA killed JFK" crowds, that won't convince you of anything. Reasonable people will however recognize that covering up such events under such scrutiny is a risky move, and as such unlikely to stand for long. The calls for more investigation would never stop, just consider how riled up antivaxxers are for no good reason; do you really think there would npt be a much larger number of citizens up in arms and furious if there was any hint of such a cover up in their country?
  - bell-cot 5y ago
    > "or at least would pretend to." True, and I was obnoxiously snarky. But for something so high-profile and emotionally charged, the loss of face, loss of control, and other big downsides (for those in power) kick in as soon as a nation even pretends to allow a serious international investigation. I will not argue that a cover-up in most Western countries would have nearly the prospects of success that one would in China (also not asserting that China is doing any meaningful cover-up on this). I will argue that those in power would (per Churchill) probably do the right thing only after exhausting every possible alternative. Note that most Western countries have had their citizens "up in arms and furious" for a good while now, over the endless screw-ups handling COVID. Sadly, that has neither ejected many politicians from office, nor caused a mass outbreak of government honesty or competence. (Personal aside on the "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" crowd - both of my grandfathers were country blacksmiths. That profession is only possible because iron and steel get soft enough to work with simple hand tools at temperatures far, far below their melting points.) [Edit - add the obvious missing carriage return after quoting parent.]

mrkramer 5y ago

Everything will be known sooner or later. Since when truth is dangerous?

newsclues 5y ago

If it spread via military games in 2019, would the US Intel community be honest about it? https://financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-canadian-forces-have-right-to-know-if-they-got-covid-at-the-2019-military-world-games-in-wuhan https://financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-canadi...

shrubble 5y ago

"I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole… we had entire training courses." -- former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false" -- CIA director William Colby Something tells me that a different source of information should be sought...