4 ms·

Most major tech companies seem to be betting that non-shit AR glasses aren't far off, and are prepping to be ready for that day 1. Big VR bets makes less sense

Most major tech companies seem to be betting that non-shit AR glasses aren't far off, and are prepping to be ready for that day 1. Big VR bets makes less sense to me. AR is the next smartphone. VR is the next... TV or workstation monitor, and even then, only for some use cases. Just seems like a much smaller opportunity.

shock-value 5y ago
Are you implying that their interest suggests that non-shit AR glasses will actually happen in the relatively short term? Big tech companies were and ostensibly are interested in self-driving too, and that seems to be taking much longer than they expected.
- handrous 5y ago
  They all keep announcing AR features for their devices and operating systems, even though those are very niche except as a "gee isn't that nifty" demo on current hardware—anyone who's held a phone or tablet or Gameboy or whatever up to interact with these things can attest it's pretty terrible overall UX, even if it's really cool as a demo. Glasses fix that problem. I assume the reason companies are continuing development of those capabilities is that they're pretty sure AR glasses aren't too far off. Seems like a much more tractable problem than self-driving, anyway—mostly a waiting game for battery and display/input tech to hit just the right spot and for someone to package it just right, like smartphones were.
mrkramer 5y ago
VR is the next PC. "VR headset in every home" could be the next Microsoft like company mission and vision. I think for instance VR will have big impact in medicine and education but like I said it is decades away something like PC industry in 1970s.
- handrous 5y ago
  Right, but my point is that the PC is kinda niche, itself, as a consumer product. "The next PC" is a very different prospect—and far more B2B—than "the next smartphone". It could still be pretty big, but it's always seemed to me like a weird place for Facebook, especially, to be investing. Best-case you also become "the next video game console", but consoles (+TVs) are so much more (locally, IRL) social than PCs that I wouldn't bet on that working out. Worst-case, companies focusing more on AR also crack the problem of making their glasses function for VR, and you can throw all your VR-only hardware investment in the trash (though some of the software would be salvageable, I assume).
- pessimizer 5y ago
  VR is the next 3D TV. A cumbersome, marginal improvement on something that already works fine. Even for industrial use, its only cases I've heard about have been to transmit manual labor over a network. There are very limited cases where we need to do that, although I have no doubt that VR will be useful for undersea or outer space welding, or something, with a very skilled operator. Otherwise, the accuracy necessary is going to make the machine (at the endpoint) far more expensive to build and maintain than it is to just send the human. edit: It'll be good for killbots. They'll be largely autonomous other than Tesla autopilot-style nudges. The work doesn't require a lot of accuracy, and there are still a few social hangups about totally autonomous killing machines that would make an operator in a VR set more acceptable, even if they don't have much to do.
  - tailspin2019 5y ago
    > VR is the next 3D TV. A cumbersome, marginal improvement on something that already works fine. I think it's always worth considering the timeframe with these sorts of things. Right now, yes, you're probably right. But in 5, 10, 20, 50 years? I see widespread VR/AR (especially AR) as being inevitable at some point in the future. But we still have a long way to go. It could still tangibly be decades away before the technology evolves into the right "shape". Even with the current generation of VR hardware we're still looking at the equivalent of Charles Babbage's difference engine and trying to predict the iPhone from it.

shock-value 5y ago

Are you implying that their interest suggests that non-shit AR glasses will actually happen in the relatively short term? Big tech companies were and ostensibly are interested in self-driving too, and that seems to be taking much longer than they expected.

handrous 5y ago
They all keep announcing AR features for their devices and operating systems, even though those are very niche except as a "gee isn't that nifty" demo on current hardware—anyone who's held a phone or tablet or Gameboy or whatever up to interact with these things can attest it's pretty terrible overall UX, even if it's really cool as a demo. Glasses fix that problem. I assume the reason companies are continuing development of those capabilities is that they're pretty sure AR glasses aren't too far off. Seems like a much more tractable problem than self-driving, anyway—mostly a waiting game for battery and display/input tech to hit just the right spot and for someone to package it just right, like smartphones were.

mrkramer 5y ago

VR is the next PC. "VR headset in every home" could be the next Microsoft like company mission and vision. I think for instance VR will have big impact in medicine and education but like I said it is decades away something like PC industry in 1970s.

handrous 5y ago
Right, but my point is that the PC is kinda niche, itself, as a consumer product. "The next PC" is a very different prospect—and far more B2B—than "the next smartphone". It could still be pretty big, but it's always seemed to me like a weird place for Facebook, especially, to be investing. Best-case you also become "the next video game console", but consoles (+TVs) are so much more (locally, IRL) social than PCs that I wouldn't bet on that working out. Worst-case, companies focusing more on AR also crack the problem of making their glasses function for VR, and you can throw all your VR-only hardware investment in the trash (though some of the software would be salvageable, I assume).
pessimizer 5y ago
VR is the next 3D TV. A cumbersome, marginal improvement on something that already works fine. Even for industrial use, its only cases I've heard about have been to transmit manual labor over a network. There are very limited cases where we need to do that, although I have no doubt that VR will be useful for undersea or outer space welding, or something, with a very skilled operator. Otherwise, the accuracy necessary is going to make the machine (at the endpoint) far more expensive to build and maintain than it is to just send the human. edit: It'll be good for killbots. They'll be largely autonomous other than Tesla autopilot-style nudges. The work doesn't require a lot of accuracy, and there are still a few social hangups about totally autonomous killing machines that would make an operator in a VR set more acceptable, even if they don't have much to do.
- tailspin2019 5y ago
  > VR is the next 3D TV. A cumbersome, marginal improvement on something that already works fine. I think it's always worth considering the timeframe with these sorts of things. Right now, yes, you're probably right. But in 5, 10, 20, 50 years? I see widespread VR/AR (especially AR) as being inevitable at some point in the future. But we still have a long way to go. It could still tangibly be decades away before the technology evolves into the right "shape". Even with the current generation of VR hardware we're still looking at the equivalent of Charles Babbage's difference engine and trying to predict the iPhone from it.