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Wow, 1000s of words and completely missed the point. Facebook largely relies on 3rd parties to run their business. Without Apple and Google phone access, they

by cm2012 5y ago

Wow, 1000s of words and completely missed the point. Facebook largely relies on 3rd parties to run their business. Without Apple and Google phone access, they are dead in the water. If they made a fundamentally killer new physical device, they would own it end to end and remove a whole risk category from their business. That's why Mark is investing $10b a year in VR R&D.

endisneigh 5y ago
Even if they had a new killer device, unless it's as a small as a phone and has cellular functionality it will compete with phones for space in a pocket, bag or purse. Either way, it will be destroyed by the intense phone competition. Look at the Gameboy/DS/3DS/PSP/Vita. By far the most popular set of non-phone handheld devices in existence. Obliterated by phones. Together all of Nintendo's and Sony's handhelds have probably sold over a billion, several orders of magnitude more than all VR devices combined and in 2 generations they were wiped out. The only way Meta can win here is if there's some sort of neural link that completely surpasses phones. I don't bet on it.
- karmakaze 5y ago
  That's not how I read the situation. I could see this as being more like how mobile phones are exceeding desktop/laptop computers in usage. Sure a phone is small, but a lightweight pair of hands-free glasses can be even more convenient with a larger than hand-sized display. It's only hard to believe now because the tech is in about the PalmPilot phase.
- after_care 5y ago
  It doesn’t really matter where the user uses the Oculus, it matters how much users use the oculus. It can find success outside of the pocket. Look at cable TV advertising.
  - endisneigh 5y ago
    Meta's current valuation cannot be justified by some small niche. Love the Cable TV advertising example - Meta killed that.
- aikinai 5y ago
  > Obliterated by phones. Nintendo Switch has sold 90 million units, right up there with other best selling gaming systems. I don’t disagree with your main point, but your example wasn’t accurate.
  - endisneigh 5y ago
    Without knowing how often a Switch is used in "portable" mode as opposed to docked it's hard to use the Switch as an example one way or another. Either way the Switch has sold far slower than both Nintendo's handhelds and consoles.

by cm2012 5y ago

endisneigh 5y ago

Even if they had a new killer device, unless it's as a small as a phone and has cellular functionality it will compete with phones for space in a pocket, bag or purse. Either way, it will be destroyed by the intense phone competition. Look at the Gameboy/DS/3DS/PSP/Vita. By far the most popular set of non-phone handheld devices in existence. Obliterated by phones. Together all of Nintendo's and Sony's handhelds have probably sold over a billion, several orders of magnitude more than all VR devices combined and in 2 generations they were wiped out. The only way Meta can win here is if there's some sort of neural link that completely surpasses phones. I don't bet on it.

karmakaze 5y ago
That's not how I read the situation. I could see this as being more like how mobile phones are exceeding desktop/laptop computers in usage. Sure a phone is small, but a lightweight pair of hands-free glasses can be even more convenient with a larger than hand-sized display. It's only hard to believe now because the tech is in about the PalmPilot phase.
after_care 5y ago
It doesn’t really matter where the user uses the Oculus, it matters how much users use the oculus. It can find success outside of the pocket. Look at cable TV advertising.
- endisneigh 5y ago
  Meta's current valuation cannot be justified by some small niche. Love the Cable TV advertising example - Meta killed that.
aikinai 5y ago
> Obliterated by phones. Nintendo Switch has sold 90 million units, right up there with other best selling gaming systems. I don’t disagree with your main point, but your example wasn’t accurate.
- endisneigh 5y ago
  Without knowing how often a Switch is used in "portable" mode as opposed to docked it's hard to use the Switch as an example one way or another. Either way the Switch has sold far slower than both Nintendo's handhelds and consoles.