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The drier on average can be somewhat misleading: with each +1℃ the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water on average. That's why increased incidents of
by notabee 5y ago
The drier on average can be somewhat misleading: with each +1℃ the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water on average. That's why increased incidents of wet bulb extremes are going to kill a lot of people. There will also be wildly shifting weather patterns. Those weather patterns may make some regions more prone to drought, but the key terms to expect with climate change would be hotter, more unpredictable, and greater extremes. Droughts may be drier, floods more devastating, etc. Just look at Siberia hitting 100℉ much faster than the average temperature increase elsewhere: the temperature is rising much more quickly at the northern pole compared to elsewhere in the world. This will be an uneven regional process with innumerable factors involved. It's not unprecedented for complete local climate shifts to occur in the geologic record, and much more likely given the rate of change we're causing. One we know of, for instance, is that the Amazon forest is likely to switch to being a desert given its current deforestation trajectory. Something might e.g. shift an ocean current that turns a dependent climate pattern much colder, or drier, or hotter. We can predict some of these, but the further we push the global climate out of the only patterns we have good, modern historical data on, the weirder it might become. So in other words, even if you move to a cool and rainy place now, the climate dice we're playing with may not favor you. I think it's important for people to grok this because adaptation in a +3℃ world or greater is going to involve much more than just moving further north or south. It's going to affect everyone everywhere. You might escape some heat up north only to face the landscape deforming and belching up more methane in the atmosphere than any human has breathed, and perhaps some defrosting pandemic pathogens that haven't infected a new body for thousands of years. The known unknowns are likely bad, and the unknown unknowns are myriad.
- wing-_-nuts 5y agoI get what you're saying. This is all true, but even so you will almost certainly be better off in an oceanic climate than elsewhere, even if there are unprecedented effects such as the BC heat wave.