A fallacy that might be at work here is comparing the shutdowns that actually occurred with a counterfactual world where business activity remained essentially

A fallacy that might be at work here is comparing the shutdowns that actually occurred with a counterfactual world where business activity remained essentially unchanged. We'll never know for sure, but I doubt that's the correct comparison. Even without government-mandated shutdowns, many areas--especially major urban cores--would still have experienced massive shocks as people voluntarily shifted to working from home, stopped going out to eat, etc. In other words, much of what the government did through law would likely have happened anyway out of fear and individuals exercising their common sense. Sure, it wouldn't have been exactly the same, but I think the counterfactual is much less rosy than you assume. And then there are the benefits of the shutdown which helped to direct the drop in activity towards less essential parts of the economy and increased predictability, to say nothing of the benefits of reduced viral transmission.