3 ms·

I really don't understand what you mean by this comment. The only swaths of the economy that I'm aware of that got shut down in the U.S. are things like bars, r

I really don't understand what you mean by this comment. The only swaths of the economy that I'm aware of that got shut down in the U.S. are things like bars, restaurants and movie theaters. These are not tightly connected to global supply chains, AFAIK, and if they were why would their shut down cause bottlenecks (it should lessen demand, not increase it)?

ralph84 5y ago
Tesla's California factory was shut down for 2 months.
zamadatix 5y ago
Thinking about it from the perspective of someone who thinks the shutdowns were net good but reviewing the comment in good faith: Lessened demand in large sections of the economy can itself create shortages in the parts that take on the load or at least stress on the supply chain to redirect to those places now in extreme demand. Take restaurants for example, people didn't stop eating but vast swaths of food supply chains had to change pretty much overnight. Then there is also the problem of the demand of certain things being highly uncertain, like cars towards the beginning. Then there is the extreme induced demand on certain things like webcams, laptops, or other home electronics as everyone stays home. I'm sure that also isn't an easy overnight change to make and then swing back from since it was completely unplanned. I know the area I work immediately ran out of widgets based on orders of 10s of thousands instantly coming in and it has been backed up since that time to this day. Finally during the initial portion of the pandemic lots of factories, both in the US and China, were getting shut down. China seemingly longer. When restaurants and whatnot started to open back up was about the time you saw those shutdowns stop happening too. So on top of the above concerns for the supply chain lots of non bars and movie theatres were also affected by shutdowns, just perhaps not as long. May be more I'm missing but I don't think GP is an empty comment by any means.
- allturtles 5y ago
  Much of the problem with understanding what GP means is that 'the shutdowns' is a very hazy term. Implicit in the comment seems to be the idea that there was some small set of authority figures who decided to shut down the global economy and if only they hadn't done that things would be better. e.g., The induced demand from work from home you mention I wouldn't count as part of any 'shutdown' at all. It has been largely driven organically by the decisions of individual firms and workers. My office was ordered to work from home by company HQ, not by any government authority, and at this point staying WFH is an individual voluntary choice. Does this count as part of the 'shutdown'? Certainly my sector of the economy (software development) was not shutdown, quite to the contrary.
  - zamadatix 5y ago
    I'm not sure the comment is implicit of who did the shutdowns but even taking it as so the widget orders by the 10s of thousands I referenced were mostly public school systems receiving mandates and associated COVID relief funding to compl,y not private enterprises. Particularly younger grades weren't normally assigned personal hardware and not every child had internet access at home. Though like you say the private sector remote work shift certainly happened too and exacerbated the ordering situation.
    - allturtles 5y ago
      Sure, many (most?) schools went remote, but they didn't shut down, and they aren't really integrated into the "global economy." It's certainly true that collectively, society pushed down in some places and things popped up in others, sometimes in obvious ways (going remote creates demand for laptops and cameras and office chairs) and sometimes in surprising ones (spiking rental car prices, yet internet providers were totally unfazed). I don't think "if only we hadn't been so foolish as to shutdown a large part of the global economy" is a useful or helpful way to think about these phenomena, though.

ralph84 5y ago

Tesla's California factory was shut down for 2 months.

zamadatix 5y ago

Thinking about it from the perspective of someone who thinks the shutdowns were net good but reviewing the comment in good faith: Lessened demand in large sections of the economy can itself create shortages in the parts that take on the load or at least stress on the supply chain to redirect to those places now in extreme demand. Take restaurants for example, people didn't stop eating but vast swaths of food supply chains had to change pretty much overnight. Then there is also the problem of the demand of certain things being highly uncertain, like cars towards the beginning. Then there is the extreme induced demand on certain things like webcams, laptops, or other home electronics as everyone stays home. I'm sure that also isn't an easy overnight change to make and then swing back from since it was completely unplanned. I know the area I work immediately ran out of widgets based on orders of 10s of thousands instantly coming in and it has been backed up since that time to this day. Finally during the initial portion of the pandemic lots of factories, both in the US and China, were getting shut down. China seemingly longer. When restaurants and whatnot started to open back up was about the time you saw those shutdowns stop happening too. So on top of the above concerns for the supply chain lots of non bars and movie theatres were also affected by shutdowns, just perhaps not as long. May be more I'm missing but I don't think GP is an empty comment by any means.

allturtles 5y ago
Much of the problem with understanding what GP means is that 'the shutdowns' is a very hazy term. Implicit in the comment seems to be the idea that there was some small set of authority figures who decided to shut down the global economy and if only they hadn't done that things would be better. e.g., The induced demand from work from home you mention I wouldn't count as part of any 'shutdown' at all. It has been largely driven organically by the decisions of individual firms and workers. My office was ordered to work from home by company HQ, not by any government authority, and at this point staying WFH is an individual voluntary choice. Does this count as part of the 'shutdown'? Certainly my sector of the economy (software development) was not shutdown, quite to the contrary.
- zamadatix 5y ago
  I'm not sure the comment is implicit of who did the shutdowns but even taking it as so the widget orders by the 10s of thousands I referenced were mostly public school systems receiving mandates and associated COVID relief funding to compl,y not private enterprises. Particularly younger grades weren't normally assigned personal hardware and not every child had internet access at home. Though like you say the private sector remote work shift certainly happened too and exacerbated the ordering situation.
  - allturtles 5y ago
    Sure, many (most?) schools went remote, but they didn't shut down, and they aren't really integrated into the "global economy." It's certainly true that collectively, society pushed down in some places and things popped up in others, sometimes in obvious ways (going remote creates demand for laptops and cameras and office chairs) and sometimes in surprising ones (spiking rental car prices, yet internet providers were totally unfazed). I don't think "if only we hadn't been so foolish as to shutdown a large part of the global economy" is a useful or helpful way to think about these phenomena, though.