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> SpaceX is likely going to need to construct hundreds of Starships to maintain anywhere close to the promised cadence of launches. That's always been the plan

> SpaceX is likely going to need to construct hundreds of Starships to maintain anywhere close to the promised cadence of launches. That's always been the plan. Even in the original 2016 presentation featuring the considerably larger Interplanetary Transport System that got scaled down to become what's now known as Starship and Superheavy, the plan was to churn them out en masse to make it possible to make the most of each Earth-Mars transit window. Starships and all the parts that comprise them are designed to be mass produced and treated as cattle rather than pets.

giantrobot 5y ago
Producing a bunch of units is a small part of the system cost. Starships will need to be inspected and refurbished between flights (high personnel cost). Launch sites need infrastructure to support that launch cadence as well. That means clean room storage, fuel production/storage, housing, and adequate roads/rail/ports for surface transport. Launches also have regulatory requirements like clearing of airspace and potential downrange landing areas. Their own deliveries of fuel and client payloads will be delayed from the airspace and downrange surface exclusion zones. Once you've got vehicles in space you'll need 24/7 monitoring and management. Even if mission control teams are relatively small the only way you'll be able to safely manage a large number of missions will be with a large number of teams. The personnel and infrastructure costs will put a cap on the number of Starship launches SpaceX will ever be able to manage. The costs of those will push up the costs beyond Musk's low-ball fantasy promises.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  Most likely the first few dozen Starships will not be re-launched in any short time. Although, the engines from any that land could be bolted to a new hull and re-used, after a week or two of re-work. There is simply zero plausibility of the current tile system offering any sort of quick turn-around. But that doesn't matter. Even without any Starship re-usability (aside from Superheavy), you still come out far, far ahead of any conceivable evolution of SLS.

giantrobot 5y ago

Producing a bunch of units is a small part of the system cost. Starships will need to be inspected and refurbished between flights (high personnel cost). Launch sites need infrastructure to support that launch cadence as well. That means clean room storage, fuel production/storage, housing, and adequate roads/rail/ports for surface transport. Launches also have regulatory requirements like clearing of airspace and potential downrange landing areas. Their own deliveries of fuel and client payloads will be delayed from the airspace and downrange surface exclusion zones. Once you've got vehicles in space you'll need 24/7 monitoring and management. Even if mission control teams are relatively small the only way you'll be able to safely manage a large number of missions will be with a large number of teams. The personnel and infrastructure costs will put a cap on the number of Starship launches SpaceX will ever be able to manage. The costs of those will push up the costs beyond Musk's low-ball fantasy promises.

ncmncm 5y ago
Most likely the first few dozen Starships will not be re-launched in any short time. Although, the engines from any that land could be bolted to a new hull and re-used, after a week or two of re-work. There is simply zero plausibility of the current tile system offering any sort of quick turn-around. But that doesn't matter. Even without any Starship re-usability (aside from Superheavy), you still come out far, far ahead of any conceivable evolution of SLS.