I think it's pretty unlikely UBI will ever replace other welfare programs. At least in the US, the Rs and Ds are currently locked in a battle to drastically inc

I think it's pretty unlikely UBI will ever replace other welfare programs. At least in the US, the Rs and Ds are currently locked in a battle to drastically increase welfare. Even though the Ds nominally control congress, they aren't able to just ram it through. While I can see things moving further toward the D / increase welfare side in the future I can't see the Rs ever getting a strong enough majority that they would be able to eliminate other welfare programs in favor of UBI. (Which would be consistent with their platform, in the sense that a true UBI -- send $N per month to literally everyone -- would be able to eliminate a huge amount of government bureaucracy that is currently dedicated to administering all these programs.) In practice, none of the "UBI trials" I've heard about are anything close to UBI, even for a small community. In fact, UBI seems to be getting rebranded as "guaranteed basic income" (GBI), meaning not universal, but "guaranteed for the people we feel like giving it to". All these trials I have heard of still have an income means test, and some are even limited to particular racial groups.