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> So its ok to plan for it but pretend it only exists for that one thing they contracted if for, and ignore if for everything else. No one here is saying "NASA

> So its ok to plan for it but pretend it only exists for that one thing they contracted if for, and ignore if for everything else. No one here is saying "NASA should ignore Starship for everything else". I'm saying that NASA isn't "failing to understand" Starship when they don't push all their chips to the middle of the table on Starship. You can't use the fact that NASA was willing to make a $2.9B bet on Starship as evidence that they should have been willing to go all-in on Starship. It'd be like saying if you wager me $1,000 on an outcome, then you should also be willing to bet your house on it. That's not how risk works! Would I personally like to see NASA continue to evaluate and select Starship for future programs? Yes! Would I personally like to see NASA start kick off early concept-phase work for payloads that would be enabled by Starship? Yes! Do I think that NASA decided not to completely re-orient everything that they do around Starship right now means they don't understand Starship? No! Of course not! It means there's too much risk right now around doing that.

panick21_ 5y ago
The point is that you have to start to think differently. Not just have the same circle of programs, selecting a launcher and on. You need to fundamentally rethink how you approach space. And there is little evidence of that happening, specially from a leadership standpoint.
- ncallaway 5y ago
  Sure. And my point is that, for an organization like NASA (which is basically our government's "approach to space") "fundamentally rethinking how you approach space" is basically saying: "fundamentally transform everything about how the organization operates". Which, if Starship delivers on its promises (and I'm quite optimistic and hopeful that it will!), then NASA will have to fundamentally transform everything about how the organization operates. But that's a huge transition to make on the back of a program that hasn't proven its key value proposition yet. I'm happy for NASA to wait the extra 2-3 years for Starship to prove that it can deliver on its promises, before NASA commits to a reorganization and restructuring at such a fundamental level. If NASA commits to such a restructuring now, and in 2 years we learn that Starship's economic dream fails to materialize and the program ends up as an improvement (but an ordinary one) over Falcon 9. NASA how has to unwind all of that organization restructuring and program development. It seems...wise to me for NASA to wait a handful of years to see Starship prove itself before committing to such a transition.
  - TeMPOraL 5y ago
    > But that's a huge transition to make on the back of a program that hasn't proven its key value proposition yet. The article agrees! Author's point, as I read it, is that if NASA does not plan for the transition now, then by the time Starship "has proven its key value proposition", both NASA and its usual contractors will be out of the game, as a new breed of private companies takes over most of space activity. The author doesn't expect NASA to bet on Starship, but rather to at least make some internal noises and initial movements towards that transition - but he failed to find any indication of that for the past 2 years.
    - prox 5y ago
      Exactly, the could keep a small budget aside already to do feasibility studies, along the lines of “instead of 50T a year, what and how do we approach the ability to shift 100,200T etc, to the moon?”
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    > "fundamentally transform everything about how the organization operates". Its more about starting to thinking on how to do that. And initiate some trail projects that take a different approach. At the moment, in most parts of NASA its simply ignored. That Starship launch system got funded is more of an accidental byproduct of the HLS.

panick21_ 5y ago

The point is that you have to start to think differently. Not just have the same circle of programs, selecting a launcher and on. You need to fundamentally rethink how you approach space. And there is little evidence of that happening, specially from a leadership standpoint.

ncallaway 5y ago
Sure. And my point is that, for an organization like NASA (which is basically our government's "approach to space") "fundamentally rethinking how you approach space" is basically saying: "fundamentally transform everything about how the organization operates". Which, if Starship delivers on its promises (and I'm quite optimistic and hopeful that it will!), then NASA will have to fundamentally transform everything about how the organization operates. But that's a huge transition to make on the back of a program that hasn't proven its key value proposition yet. I'm happy for NASA to wait the extra 2-3 years for Starship to prove that it can deliver on its promises, before NASA commits to a reorganization and restructuring at such a fundamental level. If NASA commits to such a restructuring now, and in 2 years we learn that Starship's economic dream fails to materialize and the program ends up as an improvement (but an ordinary one) over Falcon 9. NASA how has to unwind all of that organization restructuring and program development. It seems...wise to me for NASA to wait a handful of years to see Starship prove itself before committing to such a transition.
- TeMPOraL 5y ago
  > But that's a huge transition to make on the back of a program that hasn't proven its key value proposition yet. The article agrees! Author's point, as I read it, is that if NASA does not plan for the transition now, then by the time Starship "has proven its key value proposition", both NASA and its usual contractors will be out of the game, as a new breed of private companies takes over most of space activity. The author doesn't expect NASA to bet on Starship, but rather to at least make some internal noises and initial movements towards that transition - but he failed to find any indication of that for the past 2 years.
  - prox 5y ago
    Exactly, the could keep a small budget aside already to do feasibility studies, along the lines of “instead of 50T a year, what and how do we approach the ability to shift 100,200T etc, to the moon?”
- panick21_ 5y ago
  > "fundamentally transform everything about how the organization operates". Its more about starting to thinking on how to do that. And initiate some trail projects that take a different approach. At the moment, in most parts of NASA its simply ignored. That Starship launch system got funded is more of an accidental byproduct of the HLS.