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I'd like to maximize my chances of retiring in a place without major climate issues in 20 years. Where would I find a model that would show me a place on Earth

I'd like to maximize my chances of retiring in a place without major climate issues in 20 years. Where would I find a model that would show me a place on Earth that's likely to be "fine" (or conversely, places where one would definitely not want to find themselves living in)? For example, this report mentions that by 2040 developing countries are going to struggle, so I wouldn't want to retire to a developing country. Is the weather in Alaska likely to get much warmer and reach temperatures like in California? There's going to be strain on energy and food systems, so I suppose I'll have to be able to grow my own food, at least to some degree, so I would need a decent garden and good weather to grow the food. And so on.. Are there any resources to start planning this semi-seriously, without getting sucked into a whole "world is going to end" doomsday prepper narrative with guns, zombies and bunkers? I imagine that land and housing prices in such future areas is only going to increase, so it would be nice to get ahead of the curve.

mym1990 5y ago
Its never too late to start learning how to grow food! I imagine if you try to learn when things are melting down, it won't be a fruitful experience. You only need a bit of space to grow as a beginner. I've started a hydroponic system for about 50$ on my porch, which is about 5x10 feet. There is a massive pool of resources to learn from on YouTube or from books.
gmuslera 5y ago
"fine within this timeframe", that may be shorter than you think. As things become more extreme new weather patterns seem to be emerging, with some weather events that surprised meteorologists. Think that a Canadian town at lat 50 got almost 50ºC this very year. In the long term, if nothing meaningful is done, no place would be safe, at least in the open. But I don't know how things will develop in the 20 years timeframe, both in the climate and in the human side.
wing-_-nuts 5y ago
I can't offer you any sources, only what I've gathered and synthesized over the last decade or so: Climate change is going to make the world hotter and drier, on average. You want a place that is currently cool and rainy. Think oceanic climate zones. In the US, that's the PNW, and the Alaskan Peninsula. The only problem is that area is extremely vulnerable to major earthquakes. Second best bet is the Great lakes region. Third is northern new england, around lake champlain. When it comes to other areas of the world, NZ comes up a lot. There's also places like Portugal, Galacia (sp), Ireland, the UK, and much of the Scandi countries.
- notabee 5y ago
  The drier on average can be somewhat misleading: with each +1℃ the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water on average. That's why increased incidents of wet bulb extremes are going to kill a lot of people. There will also be wildly shifting weather patterns. Those weather patterns may make some regions more prone to drought, but the key terms to expect with climate change would be hotter, more unpredictable, and greater extremes. Droughts may be drier, floods more devastating, etc. Just look at Siberia hitting 100℉ much faster than the average temperature increase elsewhere: the temperature is rising much more quickly at the northern pole compared to elsewhere in the world. This will be an uneven regional process with innumerable factors involved. It's not unprecedented for complete local climate shifts to occur in the geologic record, and much more likely given the rate of change we're causing. One we know of, for instance, is that the Amazon forest is likely to switch to being a desert given its current deforestation trajectory. Something might e.g. shift an ocean current that turns a dependent climate pattern much colder, or drier, or hotter. We can predict some of these, but the further we push the global climate out of the only patterns we have good, modern historical data on, the weirder it might become. So in other words, even if you move to a cool and rainy place now, the climate dice we're playing with may not favor you. I think it's important for people to grok this because adaptation in a +3℃ world or greater is going to involve much more than just moving further north or south. It's going to affect everyone everywhere. You might escape some heat up north only to face the landscape deforming and belching up more methane in the atmosphere than any human has breathed, and perhaps some defrosting pandemic pathogens that haven't infected a new body for thousands of years. The known unknowns are likely bad, and the unknown unknowns are myriad.
  - wing-_-nuts 5y ago
    I get what you're saying. This is all true, but even so you will almost certainly be better off in an oceanic climate than elsewhere, even if there are unprecedented effects such as the BC heat wave.

mym1990 5y ago

Its never too late to start learning how to grow food! I imagine if you try to learn when things are melting down, it won't be a fruitful experience. You only need a bit of space to grow as a beginner. I've started a hydroponic system for about 50$ on my porch, which is about 5x10 feet. There is a massive pool of resources to learn from on YouTube or from books.

gmuslera 5y ago

"fine within this timeframe", that may be shorter than you think. As things become more extreme new weather patterns seem to be emerging, with some weather events that surprised meteorologists. Think that a Canadian town at lat 50 got almost 50ºC this very year. In the long term, if nothing meaningful is done, no place would be safe, at least in the open. But I don't know how things will develop in the 20 years timeframe, both in the climate and in the human side.

wing-_-nuts 5y ago

I can't offer you any sources, only what I've gathered and synthesized over the last decade or so: Climate change is going to make the world hotter and drier, on average. You want a place that is currently cool and rainy. Think oceanic climate zones. In the US, that's the PNW, and the Alaskan Peninsula. The only problem is that area is extremely vulnerable to major earthquakes. Second best bet is the Great lakes region. Third is northern new england, around lake champlain. When it comes to other areas of the world, NZ comes up a lot. There's also places like Portugal, Galacia (sp), Ireland, the UK, and much of the Scandi countries.

notabee 5y ago
The drier on average can be somewhat misleading: with each +1℃ the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water on average. That's why increased incidents of wet bulb extremes are going to kill a lot of people. There will also be wildly shifting weather patterns. Those weather patterns may make some regions more prone to drought, but the key terms to expect with climate change would be hotter, more unpredictable, and greater extremes. Droughts may be drier, floods more devastating, etc. Just look at Siberia hitting 100℉ much faster than the average temperature increase elsewhere: the temperature is rising much more quickly at the northern pole compared to elsewhere in the world. This will be an uneven regional process with innumerable factors involved. It's not unprecedented for complete local climate shifts to occur in the geologic record, and much more likely given the rate of change we're causing. One we know of, for instance, is that the Amazon forest is likely to switch to being a desert given its current deforestation trajectory. Something might e.g. shift an ocean current that turns a dependent climate pattern much colder, or drier, or hotter. We can predict some of these, but the further we push the global climate out of the only patterns we have good, modern historical data on, the weirder it might become. So in other words, even if you move to a cool and rainy place now, the climate dice we're playing with may not favor you. I think it's important for people to grok this because adaptation in a +3℃ world or greater is going to involve much more than just moving further north or south. It's going to affect everyone everywhere. You might escape some heat up north only to face the landscape deforming and belching up more methane in the atmosphere than any human has breathed, and perhaps some defrosting pandemic pathogens that haven't infected a new body for thousands of years. The known unknowns are likely bad, and the unknown unknowns are myriad.
- wing-_-nuts 5y ago
  I get what you're saying. This is all true, but even so you will almost certainly be better off in an oceanic climate than elsewhere, even if there are unprecedented effects such as the BC heat wave.