5 ms·

Not commenting on the rest of your comment, but > Chinese women have more children than American women The fertility rate of the USA and China is the same - 1

Not commenting on the rest of your comment, but > Chinese women have more children than American women The fertility rate of the USA and China is the same - 1.7 children per couple. China's facing a huge demographic crisis in the coming decades, primarily as a result of the one child policy.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
It’s not a demographic crisis, but an economic one. China’s citizens will be fine if the economy is appropriately managed (with healthcare and elderly care prioritized over more frivolous spending/investment categories), but China and the CCP will have diminished power with less labor and consumers available. It’s an important distinction.
- gwright 5y ago
  > It’s not a demographic crisis, but an economic one. I'm not sure what that means but perhaps they aren't mutually exclusive?
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    If you’re optimizing for GDP, it’s a crisis. If you’re optimizing for quality of life, not necessarily.
- nostrademons 5y ago
  There's still a short-term dependency ratio crisis brewing. Healthcare and eldercare are very labor-intensive, low-productivity industries; if you "prioritize" them such that all of the old get adequate care, the rest of the economy is going to be severely starved of workers. That's going to cause a standard of living drop that working-age Chinese may or may not be okay with. Over the long run a lower population usually leads to higher quality of life for each individual, but you've got to get to the long run first.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    Population debt can be a useful tool when not abused, but it must be paid back.
iammisc 5y ago
> The fertility rate of the USA and China is the same - 1.7 children per couple. China's facing a huge demographic crisis in the coming decades, primarily as a result of the one child policy. Is this really true? No wonder America seems more depressing every day. I didn't realize China's fertility rate was so high (thought it would be <1).

toomuchtodo 5y ago

It’s not a demographic crisis, but an economic one. China’s citizens will be fine if the economy is appropriately managed (with healthcare and elderly care prioritized over more frivolous spending/investment categories), but China and the CCP will have diminished power with less labor and consumers available. It’s an important distinction.

gwright 5y ago
> It’s not a demographic crisis, but an economic one. I'm not sure what that means but perhaps they aren't mutually exclusive?
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  If you’re optimizing for GDP, it’s a crisis. If you’re optimizing for quality of life, not necessarily.
nostrademons 5y ago
There's still a short-term dependency ratio crisis brewing. Healthcare and eldercare are very labor-intensive, low-productivity industries; if you "prioritize" them such that all of the old get adequate care, the rest of the economy is going to be severely starved of workers. That's going to cause a standard of living drop that working-age Chinese may or may not be okay with. Over the long run a lower population usually leads to higher quality of life for each individual, but you've got to get to the long run first.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Population debt can be a useful tool when not abused, but it must be paid back.

iammisc 5y ago

> The fertility rate of the USA and China is the same - 1.7 children per couple. China's facing a huge demographic crisis in the coming decades, primarily as a result of the one child policy. Is this really true? No wonder America seems more depressing every day. I didn't realize China's fertility rate was so high (thought it would be <1).