3 ms·

I don't know what the other post had in mind, but does seem like smaller effect sizes have a way of evaporating under scrutiny. One third is pretty big when lo

I don't know what the other post had in mind, but does seem like smaller effect sizes have a way of evaporating under scrutiny. One third is pretty big when looking at it from a group perspective, but not really that big from a personal perspective. If someone told me that taking a pill would reduce my chances of hospitalization by 5%, I would certainly be looking closely at the side effects.

rscho 5y ago
5% is not a pointwise prediction at the individual level. You can't interpret it like you did.
- fallingknife 5y ago
  In a way it is though. There is a 84% chance you wouldn't go to the hospital either way, an 11% chance that you will go to the hospital either way, and a 5% chance that you will be saved from going to the hospital. So there is a 1 in 20 chance that this drug will save you from being hospitalized. It could also make your illness less severe in the other scenarios though.
  - rscho 5y ago
    No, sorry...
  - npunt 5y ago
    Population and individual stats are different though. If someone is older and in a higher risk group, the drug could indeed reduce hospitalization risk for that individual much more than 5%, while for other low-risk groups it could do next to nothing.