4 ms·
I understand your sentiment, around people treating different diseases differently, but I am also not so sure that comparing polio and SARS-CoV-2 makes sense. P
by throwawaysea 5y ago
I understand your sentiment, around people treating different diseases differently, but I am also not so sure that comparing polio and SARS-CoV-2 makes sense. Polio created a lot of psychological fear due to the graphic imagery of children dying or becoming permanently deformed. The WHO says (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelitis https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelit...) that 1 in 200 infected with polio experience irreversible paralysis (usually the legs), and 5-10% of those with paralysis die, meaning the IFR was 0.025%. The IFR for COVID-19 is incredibly low for those under 50, as most of the deaths impacted senior citizens. Even the CDC's conservative planning scenarios (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...) use a planning IFR for minors of 20 in 1M infections (0.002%) - which is an order of magnitude less than polio.
The side effects you called out (like loss of smell) are rare to begin with, subside over time for most people, and aren't as serious as having to live on an iron lung. Additionally, it isn't clear if "long COVID" is even a real thing or just a casual/imprecise term for the unknown. My speculation is that many illnesses like the common cold have similar side effects, but we're only now rigorously studying and measuring them because of the prominence of COVID-19 in the public's mind.
I would also point out that there are potential consequences from a lot of things we've done in response to COVID. Limiting social interaction, hiding faces/emotions, reducing oxygen intake via masks, normalizing government overreach, hurting the economy, keeping children out of schools, and so on can have impacts we don't yet understand. And then there's the potential for vaccines to have some kind of long-term side effect of their own. My sense of the probabilities and risks is that it is preferable to take the vaccine, implement some basic hygiene protocol, and avoid the worst of it. But I also feel there is a fairly wide spectrum of reasonable choices and policies in this situation.
I'm also not sure what you're expecting in terms of taking it "seriously". COVID is going to be endemic. Everyone will be exposed to it over time. In terms of government intervention, I don't think it ever made sense to do more than 'flattening the curve', and even that was perhaps a step too far since those who are healthy and under 50 can more or less treat COVID like any other common illness. It may have even been preferable for that group to simply contract it and build up antibodies so that others who are more vulnerable could re-enter society with a lesser chance of transmission.
- hackingforfun 5y ago> those who are healthy and under 50 can more or less treat COVID like any other common illness. Is that true? I thought that changed with the variants?
- sdhfjg 5y agoThis data should reflect changes in risk to the young as the distribution of variants changed. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html
- spion 5y ago> loss of smell is rare Not sure if 20% (at least for the original strain) qualifies as rare. And, it doesn't matter if it goes away after months, the question is - is there long term neurological damage from that process. > reducing oxygen intake via masks This is not true. Breathing is more difficult but oxygen intake is the same. Especially for n95 designs which have really tiny volume > I'm also not sure what you're expecting in terms of taking it "seriously" I mean that there is real chance of serious brain damage and long term consequences due to neuroinvasion. Instead we're thinking of COVID as if its the flu or cold. > My speculation is that many illnesses like the common cold have similar side effects, but we're only now rigorously studying and measuring them because of the prominence of COVID-19 in the public's mind. In one of the brain studies, they specifically compared with flu. With COVID, T-cells are found in the brain (i.e. neuroinflammation): https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1407143750032363530 https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/14071437500323635... - with flu, there isn't anything like that at all. And this is precisely what I mean - its in the general mindset to treat SARS-2 like the flu. We think flu, we think fatality rates etc - we dismiss long term consequences, we dismiss long covid brain fog as psychological. I think that's a fatal mistake. It may not be Polio exactly, but it should be placed at similar distance from the flu in our minds. The writing is all over the wall, but we're in optimistic denial, trying to cope, grasping at any (sophisticated) potential straws.
- ekianjo 5y ago> Not sure if 20% (at least for the original strain) qualifies as rare Even for the original strain a year after most people have recovered their sense of smell. This is not a long term effect.