4 ms·

No one mentioned "rising seas" you added that in there. You could've add many more climate related disasters to the list such as hurricane, wildfire, cold snaps

by esturk 5y ago

No one mentioned "rising seas" you added that in there. You could've add many more climate related disasters to the list such as hurricane, wildfire, cold snaps, heat waves, etc. The implication is still the same. Many WILL die. There's no doubt. Not sure why you're down playing it.

marcusverus 5y ago
“Many will die” is a reasonable assumption. “Billions will die” is hysterical, indefensible nonsense—which was my point.
- dTal 5y ago
  Billions could die. We're talking major ecosystem disruption here. We exist at the top of a very fragile web. We're seeing supply chain disruptions already, just from our own internal failure to get our shit together. Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off flooded cities, failing crops, dwindling fish stocks, and entire countries being rendered uninhabitable? It's not about the global survivability of the climate - it's what the shock will do to our own delicate social ecosystem. "Every society is three meals away from chaos".
  - marcusverus 5y ago
    > We're talking major ecosystem disruption here. We exist at the top of a very fragile web. The vast majority of our food comes from a small number of domesticated sources which aren't all that reliant on the 'fragile web'. 50% of plant food calories come from only corn, rice, and wheat. We only eat a handful of domesticated animals and fish. Is climate change going to kill off corn? Are chickens going to go extinct? Clearly ecosystem collapse and mass extinction would be an absolute catastrophe--but we don't hunt and gather for calories, we farm and ranch. There is no indication that climate change is going to render us unable to feed ourselves. > We're seeing supply chain disruptions already, just from our own internal failure to get our shit together. These supply chain disruptions have nothing to do with climate change, and to my knowledge they have not resulted in a single missed meal, let alone mass starvation. Probably because we're capable of triage--the most important stuff gets shipped first! > Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off flooded cities... and entire countries being rendered uninhabitable? When Katrina hit New Orleans, a million people evacuated overnight. During the Syrian civil war, millions of refugees were willingly absorbed into Europe. This year, the US is on pace to absorb ~2 million illegal immigrants. We as a society handle flash migration events on a regular basis. The changes that will occur due to climate change won't happen overnight--they'll happen over many decades. There is no reason to assume that billions die because of mass migrations. Mass migrations happen all the time, and we handle them just fine. > Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off... failing crops These changes won't happen overnight, either. People are perfectly capable of adapting to changes in climate--we've been doing it for 10,000 years. And now we have read/write access to the genomes of our staple crops! > Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off... dwindling fish stocks Fish are one of many sources of protein--they're not a staple. Dwindling fish stocks and even extinctions are likely, but nobody will starve due to a lack of access to fish. In summary, climate change will wreak havoc, sure. But the floor will not become lava overnight. We know what's coming, we have the ability to adapt, and we will.

by esturk 5y ago

marcusverus 5y ago

“Many will die” is a reasonable assumption. “Billions will die” is hysterical, indefensible nonsense—which was my point.

dTal 5y ago
Billions could die. We're talking major ecosystem disruption here. We exist at the top of a very fragile web. We're seeing supply chain disruptions already, just from our own internal failure to get our shit together. Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off flooded cities, failing crops, dwindling fish stocks, and entire countries being rendered uninhabitable? It's not about the global survivability of the climate - it's what the shock will do to our own delicate social ecosystem. "Every society is three meals away from chaos".
- marcusverus 5y ago
  > We're talking major ecosystem disruption here. We exist at the top of a very fragile web. The vast majority of our food comes from a small number of domesticated sources which aren't all that reliant on the 'fragile web'. 50% of plant food calories come from only corn, rice, and wheat. We only eat a handful of domesticated animals and fish. Is climate change going to kill off corn? Are chickens going to go extinct? Clearly ecosystem collapse and mass extinction would be an absolute catastrophe--but we don't hunt and gather for calories, we farm and ranch. There is no indication that climate change is going to render us unable to feed ourselves. > We're seeing supply chain disruptions already, just from our own internal failure to get our shit together. These supply chain disruptions have nothing to do with climate change, and to my knowledge they have not resulted in a single missed meal, let alone mass starvation. Probably because we're capable of triage--the most important stuff gets shipped first! > Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off flooded cities... and entire countries being rendered uninhabitable? When Katrina hit New Orleans, a million people evacuated overnight. During the Syrian civil war, millions of refugees were willingly absorbed into Europe. This year, the US is on pace to absorb ~2 million illegal immigrants. We as a society handle flash migration events on a regular basis. The changes that will occur due to climate change won't happen overnight--they'll happen over many decades. There is no reason to assume that billions die because of mass migrations. Mass migrations happen all the time, and we handle them just fine. > Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off... failing crops These changes won't happen overnight, either. People are perfectly capable of adapting to changes in climate--we've been doing it for 10,000 years. And now we have read/write access to the genomes of our staple crops! > Are you really so confident globalized society can shrug off... dwindling fish stocks Fish are one of many sources of protein--they're not a staple. Dwindling fish stocks and even extinctions are likely, but nobody will starve due to a lack of access to fish. In summary, climate change will wreak havoc, sure. But the floor will not become lava overnight. We know what's coming, we have the ability to adapt, and we will.