3 ms·
I read that about a decade ago and it helped me develop some of my opinions in these areas too. One specific question I pondered around the time (I think Sagan
by physicles 5y ago
I read that about a decade ago and it helped me develop some of my opinions in these areas too.
One specific question I pondered around the time (I think Sagan may have raised it, but can’t remember for sure) was this: if we think about all the weird stuff that happens, the vast majority has a rational explanation that we can find, but for some extra weird events (let’s say 3%), what happened seems to require the supernatural, or aliens. How should we react to that 3%? Do we update our metaphysics? Or do we shrug and say “I don’t know, but absent better evidence I’m going to assume it wasn’t aliens”? How you answer that question determines your worldview.
This is where “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” really hits home. It’s the main reason I’m able to avoid wasting brain power on fringe theories. If the evidence mounts, I’ll update my beliefs.
- tppiotrowski 5y agoIt's a good rewording of Occam's razor: the explanation that requires the fewest assumptions is best. You could believe that a cabal capable of eliminating any trace of itself in a world where Wikileaks and whistleblowing is becoming a more frequent occurrence. Or, you could invoke the simpler explanation that if there is no concrete/verifiable/reproducable evidence of it, it just doesn't exist. I'm just going to assume it doesn't exist === I'm going to assume it wasn't aliens.