It would be very surprising if death counts were overcounted by a lot, because excess mortality rates have spiked massively since COVID-19 hit the scene, and in

It would be very surprising if death counts were overcounted by a lot, because excess mortality rates have spiked massively since COVID-19 hit the scene, and in general are higher than the COVID-19 reported death rates. So, for it to be overcounted, you would need to have an explanation for the reason that not just the recent excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19 have jumped so much, but that the 'real' causes of death have overshot and bit into the COVID numbers.