5 ms·

How does viral outcompetion work? How would Delta prevent A.30 from thriving? Why won't we become infected by Delta and A.30?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
polote 5y ago
Same question, especially that if someone is infected with delta he can only infect someone with delta. So delta can be outperformed at the person level only if the person is infected by both variant at the same time. For me the only way a variant can be outperformed is that all people who get infected get also infected with the other variant OR the first variant for whatever reason stop being transmissible
- greg5green 5y ago
  >For me the only way a variant can be outperformed is that all people who get infected get also infected with the other variant OR the first variant for whatever reason stop being transmissible What you are saying isn't logically sound.
JamesBarney 5y ago
> How does viral outcompetion work? Basically one spreads faster than the other so after a few iterations almost all of new cases are the new variant. > How would Delta prevent A.30 from thriving? Directly by driving up immunity, indirectly by coercing people to take steps to slow the spread of delta, which also slows the spread of a.30. Things like vaccination, social distancing, mask wearing etc... > Why won't we become infected by Delta and A.30? Because Delta probably give you significantly more immunity than a vaccine. Specifically infection gives both more robust and stronger immunity than the vaccines.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > Specifically infection gives both more robust and stronger immunity than the vaccines. Isn't there evidence that says the opposite? And that immunity due to infection is much more variable between individuals and infections, due to how the immune system responds to the virus.
  - kbelder 5y ago
    I haven't seen any evidence for that, but I've sure seen it claimed a lot.
    - rootusrootus 5y ago
      I've seen it repeated pretty extensively on r/covid19, which I have to say comes across as a much more scientifically robust site for covid information than Hacker News. The quality of information here isn't much above Facebook.
      - greg5green 5y ago
        >I've seen it repeated pretty extensively on r/covid19, which I have to say comes across as a much more scientifically robust site for covid information than Hacker News. The quality of information here isn't much above Facebook. I 100% agree with you on the quality of information here vs. there. It is much, much more strictly moderated. But with that moderation, that subreddit does not recommend going out and getting COVID in lieu of a vaccine. Even if initial response is better for COVID. COVID + Vaccine is by far the best, but that doesn't mean you should skip the vaccine to make sure you go the 'rona frst. Vaccine + Vaccine (and maybe + vaccine) is, by far, the safest combination for pretty much everyone people.
  - JamesBarney 5y ago
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... > SARS-CoV-2 naïve vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected. > Conclusions This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant. Also just in terms of baseline beliefs based on the physical world, I would assume that the vast majority of the time an infection would be more protective than a vaccine.
alecst 5y ago
You asked a good question that I’ve wondered as well. Basically someone has to show that immunity to one variant confers immunity to another, which is not at all obvious since presumably they have different epitopes. I guess what people are suggesting is that the epitopes are distinct enough that a targeted vaccine might not cover both, but not so distinct that they behave like separate infections in vivo. But I would hope that an expert can chime in and shed some light here.
- greg5green 5y ago
  >I guess what people are suggesting is that the epitopes are distinct enough that a targeted vaccine might not cover both, but not so distinct that they behave like separate infections in vivo. But I would hope that an expert can chime in and shed some light here. There are sooooo many papers that prove this -- stop pretending you are too important/lazy/etc to search for them yourself because you want to write some anti-vax BS.
  - alecst 5y ago
    The hell? I’m not anti-vax, some of my PhD work was in virology. I just don’t care to keep up with the literature. Take your beef somewhere else.
dragontamer 5y ago
The same way that Delta has decimated Flu Type B/Yamagata to the point that some are whispering that Flu Type B/Yamagata has gone extinct. (The Flu is still around, but Type B/Yamagata was very, very common before COVID19 hit. It hasn't been seen for almost 1.5 years now) Its not like "Delta-variant" gives you immunity to Flu Type B/Yamagata. But people around the world are masking up and locking down (well, in 2020 anyway). People's behaviors change when a large-scale pandemic like this occurs, and the weaker viruses die out. Even ignoring that, COVID19 forces an immune response. Yes, this immune response includes memory-cells (which remember COVID19's signature), but it _ALSO_ increases other immune cells (Neutrophil, killer-T cells, among others) which will hunt down any virus more effectively. This effect is temporary, but still a big enough effect to see the body fight off other diseases a bit better after getting sick from anything. So even though COVID19 / Delta doesn't give you any immunity (ie: memory cells / antibodies) to Flu B/Yamagata, you see Delta outcompeting it and driving Flu B/Yamagata to extinction. -------- Delta transfers memory-cell responses + antibody responses (two attributes of "memory immunity") against COVID19, and Alpha, and other variants. Sure the disease is evolving, but its not like these antibodies are totally useless against the virus within the same line. COVID19 simply doesn't evolve as quickly as the flu does. -------- This effect, in reverse, was seen in 2020 where recipients of the standard Flu shot had something like a 5% lower chance of getting COVID19. The temporary "immune response" that your body built up for the Flu vaccine had a minor (but measurable) effect on COVID19. Getting sick with _ANYTHING_ makes it harder for other viruses to attack you. Your body just goes into overdrive making various white blood cells.
kazinator 5y ago
Because being infected by the successful, fast-spreading one confers you a measure of immunity against the less successful variant, thereby directly suppressing it.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

polote 5y ago

Same question, especially that if someone is infected with delta he can only infect someone with delta. So delta can be outperformed at the person level only if the person is infected by both variant at the same time. For me the only way a variant can be outperformed is that all people who get infected get also infected with the other variant OR the first variant for whatever reason stop being transmissible

greg5green 5y ago
>For me the only way a variant can be outperformed is that all people who get infected get also infected with the other variant OR the first variant for whatever reason stop being transmissible What you are saying isn't logically sound.

JamesBarney 5y ago

> How does viral outcompetion work? Basically one spreads faster than the other so after a few iterations almost all of new cases are the new variant. > How would Delta prevent A.30 from thriving? Directly by driving up immunity, indirectly by coercing people to take steps to slow the spread of delta, which also slows the spread of a.30. Things like vaccination, social distancing, mask wearing etc... > Why won't we become infected by Delta and A.30? Because Delta probably give you significantly more immunity than a vaccine. Specifically infection gives both more robust and stronger immunity than the vaccines.

rootusrootus 5y ago
> Specifically infection gives both more robust and stronger immunity than the vaccines. Isn't there evidence that says the opposite? And that immunity due to infection is much more variable between individuals and infections, due to how the immune system responds to the virus.
- kbelder 5y ago
  I haven't seen any evidence for that, but I've sure seen it claimed a lot.
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    I've seen it repeated pretty extensively on r/covid19, which I have to say comes across as a much more scientifically robust site for covid information than Hacker News. The quality of information here isn't much above Facebook.
    - greg5green 5y ago
      >I've seen it repeated pretty extensively on r/covid19, which I have to say comes across as a much more scientifically robust site for covid information than Hacker News. The quality of information here isn't much above Facebook. I 100% agree with you on the quality of information here vs. there. It is much, much more strictly moderated. But with that moderation, that subreddit does not recommend going out and getting COVID in lieu of a vaccine. Even if initial response is better for COVID. COVID + Vaccine is by far the best, but that doesn't mean you should skip the vaccine to make sure you go the 'rona frst. Vaccine + Vaccine (and maybe + vaccine) is, by far, the safest combination for pretty much everyone people.
- JamesBarney 5y ago
  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... > SARS-CoV-2 naïve vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected. > Conclusions This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant. Also just in terms of baseline beliefs based on the physical world, I would assume that the vast majority of the time an infection would be more protective than a vaccine.

alecst 5y ago

You asked a good question that I’ve wondered as well. Basically someone has to show that immunity to one variant confers immunity to another, which is not at all obvious since presumably they have different epitopes. I guess what people are suggesting is that the epitopes are distinct enough that a targeted vaccine might not cover both, but not so distinct that they behave like separate infections in vivo. But I would hope that an expert can chime in and shed some light here.

greg5green 5y ago
>I guess what people are suggesting is that the epitopes are distinct enough that a targeted vaccine might not cover both, but not so distinct that they behave like separate infections in vivo. But I would hope that an expert can chime in and shed some light here. There are sooooo many papers that prove this -- stop pretending you are too important/lazy/etc to search for them yourself because you want to write some anti-vax BS.
- alecst 5y ago
  The hell? I’m not anti-vax, some of my PhD work was in virology. I just don’t care to keep up with the literature. Take your beef somewhere else.

dragontamer 5y ago

The same way that Delta has decimated Flu Type B/Yamagata to the point that some are whispering that Flu Type B/Yamagata has gone extinct. (The Flu is still around, but Type B/Yamagata was very, very common before COVID19 hit. It hasn't been seen for almost 1.5 years now) Its not like "Delta-variant" gives you immunity to Flu Type B/Yamagata. But people around the world are masking up and locking down (well, in 2020 anyway). People's behaviors change when a large-scale pandemic like this occurs, and the weaker viruses die out. Even ignoring that, COVID19 forces an immune response. Yes, this immune response includes memory-cells (which remember COVID19's signature), but it _ALSO_ increases other immune cells (Neutrophil, killer-T cells, among others) which will hunt down any virus more effectively. This effect is temporary, but still a big enough effect to see the body fight off other diseases a bit better after getting sick from anything. So even though COVID19 / Delta doesn't give you any immunity (ie: memory cells / antibodies) to Flu B/Yamagata, you see Delta outcompeting it and driving Flu B/Yamagata to extinction. -------- Delta transfers memory-cell responses + antibody responses (two attributes of "memory immunity") against COVID19, and Alpha, and other variants. Sure the disease is evolving, but its not like these antibodies are totally useless against the virus within the same line. COVID19 simply doesn't evolve as quickly as the flu does. -------- This effect, in reverse, was seen in 2020 where recipients of the standard Flu shot had something like a 5% lower chance of getting COVID19. The temporary "immune response" that your body built up for the Flu vaccine had a minor (but measurable) effect on COVID19. Getting sick with _ANYTHING_ makes it harder for other viruses to attack you. Your body just goes into overdrive making various white blood cells.

kazinator 5y ago

Because being infected by the successful, fast-spreading one confers you a measure of immunity against the less successful variant, thereby directly suppressing it.