He does quantify his degree of belief in his predictions, and he compares to what they would look like if he was perfectly calibrated, see https://slatestarcode

He does quantify his degree of belief in his predictions, and he compares to what they would look like if he was perfectly calibrated, see https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/08/2019-predictions-calibration-results/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/08/2019-predictions-calib... Maybe not the most 100% rigorous analysis that one could do, but certainly well beyond how self-accountable most people are.