One thing I found interesting about Worldcoin is that they have a graph of predicted "future sign-up rate" extrapolated from their trials. They predict an expon

One thing I found interesting about Worldcoin is that they have a graph of predicted "future sign-up rate" extrapolated from their trials. They predict an exponential increase in sign-ups with >2B people signed up in 2 years. Like other crypto projects, they misleading fit their data with the wrong curve. If you fit growth numbers with an S-curve instead of an exponential, you get results that are highly sensitive to noise in the initial data: https://constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/forecasting-s-curves-is-hard/ https://constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/forecasting-s-curves... This is why it will end up being the case that the actual number of users signed up for Worldcoin in 2 years was assigned a probability of ~0.00 by their growth model.