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Iran seems like it has been made a demonstration test range for cyber warfare capabilities. Anything that happens there, we can probably expect anywhere else.
by motohagiography 5y ago
Iran seems like it has been made a demonstration test range for cyber warfare capabilities. Anything that happens there, we can probably expect anywhere else.
I've been at the edges of these issues for a while, and we've become so dependent on our tech that we're effectively cyborgs. If you freeze or starve without electricity, fuel, or a globalized supply chain it's not synergistic, you are as dependent on it as ancient populations were on a well, fields, or fisheries. If someone sabotaged the wells, fields, or fisheries of a population, it would be worthy of a physical response. The era of brushing off cyber attacks is likely over, and I would treat them as the initialization for rapid kinetic escalation.
Attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran don't have the same effect as they might in the west because Iran's government is a resource cursed economy, so the happiness and consent of the population doesn't make a difference to who is in power so long as they can export oil. Using cyber against civilian infrastructure in a non-democratic state is a waste of ammo, or worse, a tracer round that gives away your position. If the attack isn't a strategic miscalculation, it's a very direct threat without follow through, and that kind of bluster is a signal of weakness. It just seems unwise.
Looking at the incentives, the logical strategic response for cyber attacks is deterrence, which unfortunately means an overwhelming shock and awe level of force.