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That’s true. But also, presumably, these companies outsourced their supply chains etc because it was (or seemed) profitable. There is still a disconnect for me

That’s true. But also, presumably, these companies outsourced their supply chains etc because it was (or seemed) profitable. There is still a disconnect for me. First everyone outsources, apparently successfully for automotive, and that’s great, all these joint ventures between car makers etc. Then Tesl comes along, integrates everything, and poof that’s also good..?

jjeaff 5y ago
I'm guessing the automotive industry benefited more from outsourcing because they were heavily unionized. Outsourcing parts allowed them to get the parts from sub-contractors that didn't have to pay union wages. Tesla started much later and didn't have this problem.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  So is Tesla another labour rights arbitrage at heart? That would make me sad. It feels to me that even taking the company at face value, this valuation is just silly. And I thought that for years, so clearly as a short-seller I’d be toast. But the more the price levitates, the more unreal it feels.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    No it isn't. The difference between union and non union is far smaller then people have in the idealistic fantasies. Tesla employees are payed just as well, and with stock options they actually historically have been paid WAY, WAY better. The thing about Tesla is that its forward looking for a long time since they have a stable leadership with a clear long term plan. This leadership has been leading the company for more then a decade and all their plans have worked out. Tesla now certainty is worth now what they were valued at a few years ago. For myself, I would already consider electric flight as part of their future revenue. Its a logical next step but it will take 10 years. Of course I can understand that other people think this is crazy. But flat out, for me, I see them growing 50% a year for many more years with no end in sight.
    - penjelly 5y ago
      youre right that at least one person thinks thats crazy. Strange how we all see what we want to see in the end. Myself included.
      - panick21_ 5y ago
        My thing is that I invested where the stock was way lower, so even if it goes down a large amount I am in the black. I simply believe in leadership, no company with Elon as a CEO has really failed to grow. The closest is maybe Solarcity but he was not CEO. Tesla threw Elon has strong connection with SpaceX. They already share material science. SpaceX uses Tesla battery technology. The connection is strong. Electric flight (not flying taxis) is a clear next step for both companies and Elon has been wanting to do it for a decade. It will take another 3-5 years before this is a serious project, but I don't think any other company is really up to it. Boeing and Airbus are not gone do it. Until then I see continue 50% growth for a long while based on EV and Storage. If Self-Driving works out, its massive. I am not counting on that. Even just as a advanced level 2 system its a great asset. But if it works out, the potential value is huge.
    - sofixa 5y ago
      > For myself, I would already consider electric flight as part of their future revenue. Its a logical next step but it will take 10 years. Of course I can understand that other people think this is crazy That's extremely unrealistic. The aeroplane industry is extremely complex, and there are heavy regulations where (hopefully) Tesla's "move fast and break things" + use commercial grade stuff and refuse warranty ( was it the chips in their screens or the screens themselves in some models that were not made for constant use in a car) approach won't fly. 10 years is a decent development time for a plane, if you skip the parts that Tesla have no experience with it and there'd be plenty of R&D to make them work. For reference, Bombardier, a company with decades of aeronautics experience and an established supply chain, started work on the C-Series in 2004. First flight was in 2014, first commercial service in 2016, and it nearly banrkupted them. Unless Tesla are already currently working on an electric airplane, i call bullshit on them having one in 10 years. Considering they already have the truck and semi which are oversold and underdelivered/delayed, do you think they have the capacity to tackle such a huge undertaking any time soon? As to your other comment that Airbus won't do it - they've been on it since 2010: https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/electric-flight.html https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/electric-fli... If one of the biggest companies in aviation has been working on it for a decade and doesn't have anything commercially viable yet to show for it, and estimate it will take them another decade for this, what makes you think a company with no aeronautics experience and history of overpromising and underdelivering can do it all in a decade?

jjeaff 5y ago

I'm guessing the automotive industry benefited more from outsourcing because they were heavily unionized. Outsourcing parts allowed them to get the parts from sub-contractors that didn't have to pay union wages. Tesla started much later and didn't have this problem.

rich_sasha 5y ago
So is Tesla another labour rights arbitrage at heart? That would make me sad. It feels to me that even taking the company at face value, this valuation is just silly. And I thought that for years, so clearly as a short-seller I’d be toast. But the more the price levitates, the more unreal it feels.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  No it isn't. The difference between union and non union is far smaller then people have in the idealistic fantasies. Tesla employees are payed just as well, and with stock options they actually historically have been paid WAY, WAY better. The thing about Tesla is that its forward looking for a long time since they have a stable leadership with a clear long term plan. This leadership has been leading the company for more then a decade and all their plans have worked out. Tesla now certainty is worth now what they were valued at a few years ago. For myself, I would already consider electric flight as part of their future revenue. Its a logical next step but it will take 10 years. Of course I can understand that other people think this is crazy. But flat out, for me, I see them growing 50% a year for many more years with no end in sight.
  - penjelly 5y ago
    youre right that at least one person thinks thats crazy. Strange how we all see what we want to see in the end. Myself included.
    - panick21_ 5y ago
      My thing is that I invested where the stock was way lower, so even if it goes down a large amount I am in the black. I simply believe in leadership, no company with Elon as a CEO has really failed to grow. The closest is maybe Solarcity but he was not CEO. Tesla threw Elon has strong connection with SpaceX. They already share material science. SpaceX uses Tesla battery technology. The connection is strong. Electric flight (not flying taxis) is a clear next step for both companies and Elon has been wanting to do it for a decade. It will take another 3-5 years before this is a serious project, but I don't think any other company is really up to it. Boeing and Airbus are not gone do it. Until then I see continue 50% growth for a long while based on EV and Storage. If Self-Driving works out, its massive. I am not counting on that. Even just as a advanced level 2 system its a great asset. But if it works out, the potential value is huge.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    > For myself, I would already consider electric flight as part of their future revenue. Its a logical next step but it will take 10 years. Of course I can understand that other people think this is crazy That's extremely unrealistic. The aeroplane industry is extremely complex, and there are heavy regulations where (hopefully) Tesla's "move fast and break things" + use commercial grade stuff and refuse warranty ( was it the chips in their screens or the screens themselves in some models that were not made for constant use in a car) approach won't fly. 10 years is a decent development time for a plane, if you skip the parts that Tesla have no experience with it and there'd be plenty of R&D to make them work. For reference, Bombardier, a company with decades of aeronautics experience and an established supply chain, started work on the C-Series in 2004. First flight was in 2014, first commercial service in 2016, and it nearly banrkupted them. Unless Tesla are already currently working on an electric airplane, i call bullshit on them having one in 10 years. Considering they already have the truck and semi which are oversold and underdelivered/delayed, do you think they have the capacity to tackle such a huge undertaking any time soon? As to your other comment that Airbus won't do it - they've been on it since 2010: https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/electric-flight.html https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/electric-fli... If one of the biggest companies in aviation has been working on it for a decade and doesn't have anything commercially viable yet to show for it, and estimate it will take them another decade for this, what makes you think a company with no aeronautics experience and history of overpromising and underdelivering can do it all in a decade?