Not sure what you mean by "projected scarcity". A Tesla shareholder will sell their shares if what they get in exchange is worth more, according to their opinio

Not sure what you mean by "projected scarcity". A Tesla shareholder will sell their shares if what they get in exchange is worth more, according to their opinion, than the shares. This applies to Musk fans as well, the only difference being that Musk fans tend to value Tesla shares higher than regular investors and therefore will only be willing to sell at a higher price compared to regular investors. Is that "priced in"? Well, yes, the current share price reflects that, but that's exactly the point the OP was making—that Tesla shares are overpriced because Tesla fans systematically overestimate their worth.