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I wrote this incredibly unappreciated comment (it got upvoted once) back in April 2020, explaining why I put my life savings ($100k) into Tesla and tech stocks

I wrote this incredibly unappreciated comment (it got upvoted once) back in April 2020, explaining why I put my life savings ($100k) into Tesla and tech stocks at the bottom of the crash in March 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22970810 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22970810 I raised my position to 86% TSLA shortly thereafter: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25555778 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25555778 And in February this year (at the peak) I dumped my last shares of SQ to go all-in on TSLA. I was right, and the people I was arguing with were wrong. I do wish they'd contact me and pick up the conversation, though...

sschueller 5y ago
If you haven't sold any of it yet, you also haven't made any money. You should at least take out what you put in plus interest. Then in the worst case you make out the same as if you didn't do anything with it.
ecpottinger 5y ago
Most of them never will. There is one thing wrong with most people, the lack of willingness to admit their mistakes and that they made the wrong decisions. Tesla is (was before the run-up) only one third of my portfolio and I was told repeatedly that I would lose all my money. The people telling this had made good money on the stock market before and now thought they knew it all. Not only were they wrong, but I also have already sold enough of my Tesla stock to get back all the money I invested. Yet, on the other side others shows up and says I should never have sold any stock, just it ride. Of-course those same people will quickly vanish if I followed their advice and the stock crashed. The one thing I learnt, do not 100% trust so-called experts and do your own research. Earl Colby Pottinger PS. And never invest money you can't afford to lose.
cinntaile 5y ago
Just because you were right doesn't make it a good decision to put nearly all your life savings into one company. You have people claiming similar things about bitcoin for example. I mean... Good for you, but the roads are paved with people that had similar convictions about all kinds of companies and projects.
- maxharris 5y ago
  But I knew I was right. I thought really hard about every single aspect, from the inevitability of the EV transition, to the fundamentals of the company, to the brilliant people that work at Tesla, to various macroeconomic trends, to virology, to value investors vs. innovators, to the 2019 yield curve inversion, to a snap prediction that the Fed would pump hard so as not to repeat what they thought of as mistakes from 2007-2008, etc. And even then it took me some time to go all-in on the company. I made a good amount short-term on a couple of casino stocks, and gains on Apple, Amazon, etc. But I dumped them all, one by one, to buy more Tesla.
  - cinntaile 5y ago
    > But I knew I was right. But that's what everyone believes when they invest in something. As I said, good for you that it turned out well. What do you think about a regulatory backlash against FSD beta? When will we have FSD?
  - elteto 5y ago
    > But I knew I was right. You can’t see the future so no, you didn’t. You believed you were and for the current time horizon you are. Might never move against you in the future, maybe not. You made a bet, an informed one, but just that, a bet.
mrjangles 5y ago
This is equivalent to putting all your life savings on black at the roulette table, then, when you win, insisting that all the people who tried to tell you it was a terrible idea were clearly wrong. Stocks go up 50% of the time, they go down 50% of the time.
wodenokoto 5y ago
> I was right, and the people I was arguing with were wrong. I do wish they'd contact me and pick up the conversation, though... "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". This works the other way around too. Placing all your money in an overheated bubble is great, if you cash out before it bursts. I wouldn't put my life savings in Tesla, but I also wouldn't try and short them.

sschueller 5y ago

If you haven't sold any of it yet, you also haven't made any money. You should at least take out what you put in plus interest. Then in the worst case you make out the same as if you didn't do anything with it.

ecpottinger 5y ago

Most of them never will. There is one thing wrong with most people, the lack of willingness to admit their mistakes and that they made the wrong decisions. Tesla is (was before the run-up) only one third of my portfolio and I was told repeatedly that I would lose all my money. The people telling this had made good money on the stock market before and now thought they knew it all. Not only were they wrong, but I also have already sold enough of my Tesla stock to get back all the money I invested. Yet, on the other side others shows up and says I should never have sold any stock, just it ride. Of-course those same people will quickly vanish if I followed their advice and the stock crashed. The one thing I learnt, do not 100% trust so-called experts and do your own research. Earl Colby Pottinger PS. And never invest money you can't afford to lose.

cinntaile 5y ago

Just because you were right doesn't make it a good decision to put nearly all your life savings into one company. You have people claiming similar things about bitcoin for example. I mean... Good for you, but the roads are paved with people that had similar convictions about all kinds of companies and projects.

maxharris 5y ago
But I knew I was right. I thought really hard about every single aspect, from the inevitability of the EV transition, to the fundamentals of the company, to the brilliant people that work at Tesla, to various macroeconomic trends, to virology, to value investors vs. innovators, to the 2019 yield curve inversion, to a snap prediction that the Fed would pump hard so as not to repeat what they thought of as mistakes from 2007-2008, etc. And even then it took me some time to go all-in on the company. I made a good amount short-term on a couple of casino stocks, and gains on Apple, Amazon, etc. But I dumped them all, one by one, to buy more Tesla.
- cinntaile 5y ago
  > But I knew I was right. But that's what everyone believes when they invest in something. As I said, good for you that it turned out well. What do you think about a regulatory backlash against FSD beta? When will we have FSD?
- elteto 5y ago
  > But I knew I was right. You can’t see the future so no, you didn’t. You believed you were and for the current time horizon you are. Might never move against you in the future, maybe not. You made a bet, an informed one, but just that, a bet.

mrjangles 5y ago

This is equivalent to putting all your life savings on black at the roulette table, then, when you win, insisting that all the people who tried to tell you it was a terrible idea were clearly wrong. Stocks go up 50% of the time, they go down 50% of the time.

wodenokoto 5y ago

> I was right, and the people I was arguing with were wrong. I do wish they'd contact me and pick up the conversation, though... "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". This works the other way around too. Placing all your money in an overheated bubble is great, if you cash out before it bursts. I wouldn't put my life savings in Tesla, but I also wouldn't try and short them.