5 ms·

Yup. Even at 1 in every 1 million systems, that could be 100,000 systems with life. Or, even at 1 in every 10 million, that could be 10,000 systems with life.

by yumraj 5y ago

Yup. Even at 1 in every 1 million systems, that could be 100,000 systems with life. Or, even at 1 in every 10 million, that could be 10,000 systems with life. In a way I hate these photos. It's like showing a kid an ultra delicious looking candy, but telling them that they will not be able to taste it in their lifetime.

zokier 5y ago
But for all we know the odds could be 1 in every 100 billion; we have no way of knowing, almost any guess you'd make is equally unfounded.
- p1necone 5y ago
  It's like the one tank variant of the German tank problem[0], except the tanks aren't even numbered. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  What are the odds we are the only one?
  - wahern 5y ago
    Nobody can tell you without pulling numbers out of thin air. That's the point. The only thing that can be said is that the probability of intelligent life arising is greater than 0, which follows from our own existence. Beyond that, any claims about the likelihood of intelligent life are just 20th and 21st century versions of "there must be a God because the universe couldn't have arisen by chance."
    - omnicognate 5y ago
      Strictly speaking our own existence doesn't even tell us the probability is greater than zero. For an event to have probability zero doesn't imply it can't occur. If a number is chosen from a uniform distribution on the reals between zero and one, whatever the result is the probability of that exact result occurring was zero.
      - dotancohen 5y ago
        > For an event to have probability zero doesn't imply it can't occur. The distinction in meaningless. We exist, ergo intelligent life can develop in this universe.
        danbruc 5y ago
        It is correct, if you split 100% across infinitely many possible outcomes, each outcome will have probability zero, still one of the possible outcomes will occur.
        rsj_hn 5y ago
        Doesn't this require a continuum? I don't think you get there with a measure on a countable set. That would make this an unphysical argument, IMO.
        omnicognate 5y ago
        Yes, it requires uncountability. It could be that physics is ultimately best modelled with countable sets, but that hasn't been established and our current best physical theories are certainly full of uncountability. The distinction between "surely" and "almost surely" [1] is "just" a curiosity about probability theory though, albeit a rather fundamental one, and I only brought it up as such. It's interesting to think about, and if you do so it quickly brings you up against deep philosophical questions about what probability means. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely
        danbruc 5y ago
        Just out of curiosity, is there are short answer why it requires uncountability? Naively something like pick a random natural number would also seem to lead to probability zero. I can see that pick a random natural number might be problematic, how would you do this? Pick on digit and then with some probability either stop or continue and pick another digit, but it is at the very least not obvious that one could make this work without larger numbers just having smaller and smaller probabilities and there might also be issues with termination. On the other hand it is not obvious to me why one could not work with uniform distributions over the set [0, n) and then look at the limit as n goes to infinity.
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      The universe became conscious in the form of man and asked ‘who made me’ so it’s the universe arguing with the universe about a creator :)
- dylan604 5y ago
  The scary (sad) thing to me is that it could be 1 of 1.
micromacrofoot 5y ago
the candy might also be filled with razors and end all life on our planet though
- dylan604 5y ago
  oh man, has the news been running halloween stories in your area again?
- yumraj 5y ago
  Oh crap, now not only do I have to live in disappointment that I won't get to eat the candy, I also have to live in fear that the candy monster might come by and eat me. Sad and Scared... my life is over...
  - micromacrofoot 5y ago
    well, guess we should spend our whole lives praying just in case

by yumraj 5y ago

zokier 5y ago

But for all we know the odds could be 1 in every 100 billion; we have no way of knowing, almost any guess you'd make is equally unfounded.

p1necone 5y ago
It's like the one tank variant of the German tank problem[0], except the tanks aren't even numbered. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
mensetmanusman 5y ago
What are the odds we are the only one?
- wahern 5y ago
  Nobody can tell you without pulling numbers out of thin air. That's the point. The only thing that can be said is that the probability of intelligent life arising is greater than 0, which follows from our own existence. Beyond that, any claims about the likelihood of intelligent life are just 20th and 21st century versions of "there must be a God because the universe couldn't have arisen by chance."
  - omnicognate 5y ago
    Strictly speaking our own existence doesn't even tell us the probability is greater than zero. For an event to have probability zero doesn't imply it can't occur. If a number is chosen from a uniform distribution on the reals between zero and one, whatever the result is the probability of that exact result occurring was zero.
    - dotancohen 5y ago
      > For an event to have probability zero doesn't imply it can't occur. The distinction in meaningless. We exist, ergo intelligent life can develop in this universe.
      - danbruc 5y ago
        It is correct, if you split 100% across infinitely many possible outcomes, each outcome will have probability zero, still one of the possible outcomes will occur.
        rsj_hn 5y ago
        Doesn't this require a continuum? I don't think you get there with a measure on a countable set. That would make this an unphysical argument, IMO.
        omnicognate 5y ago
        Yes, it requires uncountability. It could be that physics is ultimately best modelled with countable sets, but that hasn't been established and our current best physical theories are certainly full of uncountability. The distinction between "surely" and "almost surely" [1] is "just" a curiosity about probability theory though, albeit a rather fundamental one, and I only brought it up as such. It's interesting to think about, and if you do so it quickly brings you up against deep philosophical questions about what probability means. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely
        danbruc 5y ago
        Just out of curiosity, is there are short answer why it requires uncountability? Naively something like pick a random natural number would also seem to lead to probability zero. I can see that pick a random natural number might be problematic, how would you do this? Pick on digit and then with some probability either stop or continue and pick another digit, but it is at the very least not obvious that one could make this work without larger numbers just having smaller and smaller probabilities and there might also be issues with termination. On the other hand it is not obvious to me why one could not work with uniform distributions over the set [0, n) and then look at the limit as n goes to infinity.
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    The universe became conscious in the form of man and asked ‘who made me’ so it’s the universe arguing with the universe about a creator :)
dylan604 5y ago
The scary (sad) thing to me is that it could be 1 of 1.

micromacrofoot 5y ago

the candy might also be filled with razors and end all life on our planet though

dylan604 5y ago
oh man, has the news been running halloween stories in your area again?
yumraj 5y ago
Oh crap, now not only do I have to live in disappointment that I won't get to eat the candy, I also have to live in fear that the candy monster might come by and eat me. Sad and Scared... my life is over...
- micromacrofoot 5y ago
  well, guess we should spend our whole lives praying just in case